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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Feb 2023, 09:47
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9:52 BBC

Breaking Wallace rules out immediate transfer of jets to Ukraine

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told the BBC that there will be no immediate transfer of UK fighter jets to Ukraine.

He says gifting any fighter jets would potentially take months, and instead the UK would focus on using alternative methods of providing air cover to Ukraine, using long range missiles and drones. He dismisses as “unrealistic” Boris Johnson’s suggestions that the UK could provide 100 Typhoon warplanes, emphasising the type most likely to be sent was not equipped for ground attack.

He says that Typhoons are made by a coalition of different countries and their permission would be needed before the aircraft could be given to Ukraine.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 09:58
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
The only realistic potential provider of significant aviation help is USA.
???
Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark are currently/in the next 12 -18 months retiring their entire F-16 fleets anyway. They are the obvious choice. Maintainable, simple, effective. I would not consider Tornado, Jaguar or even Typhoon tranche 1 suitable options, though. Too much maintenance headache for too little effect.
That said the question wether ~50 fighter aircraft will be very effective and survivable is a totally different and very legitimate question.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 10:46
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No way ETOPS, Spitfires are almost as valuable as F35's don't-you-know
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 10:51
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
9:52 BBC

Breaking Wallace rules out immediate transfer of jets to Ukraine

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told the BBC that there will be no immediate transfer of UK fighter jets to Ukraine.

He says gifting any fighter jets would potentially take months, and instead the UK would focus on using alternative methods of providing air cover to Ukraine, using long range missiles and drones. He dismisses as “unrealistic” Boris Johnson’s suggestions that the UK could provide 100 Typhoon warplanes, emphasising the type most likely to be sent was not equipped for ground attack.

He says that Typhoons are made by a coalition of different countries and their permission would be needed before the aircraft could be given to Ukraine.
This agrees with a military expert I heard last night, explaining that tanks for Ukraine will be useless without top cover.

If President Zelenskiy requires advice on his forces' needs, I would expect that his allies will offer it, free of charge. I really hope he is open to such advice.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 11:31
  #14445 (permalink)  
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Ukraine has been fighting this war for over a year including their flying, and continuing to fly, CAS and SEAD over the FLOT.

As such they probably are mor3 aware of Russian capabilities and how to counter them than any country in NATO - and know what equipment they can use most productively to so.

When they say what they need, give it to them without the current 6 month lag where warriors are dying to hold the line.

What they absolutely don’t need is retired Cold War warriors sitting think tanks and armchairs second guessing them based on old intelligence guesses as to Russian equipment capabilities and tactics proved so comprehensively wrong so far.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 11:33
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Presumably the people being trained (potentially) to fly these aircraft will already be pilots.
You'd have to imagine that at some point they're going to be needing to train new pilots from scratch.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 11:36
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Originally Posted by John Marsh
This agrees with a military expert I heard last night, explaining that tanks for Ukraine will be useless without top cover.

If President Zelenskiy requires advice on his forces' needs, I would expect that his allies will offer it, free of charge. I really hope he is open to such advice.
Can you explain how that works ? Everything I have read says that manpads have made the area around the front-lines too dangerous for low-level aircraft, yet this is where tanks would be deployed, is it not ? AFAIK I haven't seen any videos of tanks destroyed by planes: artillery, ATGM, mines -yes, planes, no.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 11:42
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Loads of videos of Turkish Leopard tanks being destroyed in Syria by anti-armour weapons .
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 11:51
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Originally Posted by fitliker
Loads of videos of Turkish Leopard tanks being destroyed in Syria by anti-armour weapons .
By aircraft?
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:11
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Originally Posted by downsizer
This is what a lot of the armchair quarterbacks here are missing IMO.

Jets aren't going to turn the tide of the war, sending jets will sadly mean more dead Ukr pilots.

The Russians are still operating effective IADS at the FLOT and in the occupied areas that is still claiming Ukr aviation to this day. A token handful of western FJs are not going to enable the Ukr to run proper SEAD missions.

What we should be focusing on is sending things that make a difference now.....manpads, tube and mlrs arty, armoured vehicles and most importantly ammunition.
Nothing on its own is going to turn the tide of the war, jets included, but good luck to Ukraine trying to wrestle back its territory without them.

Don't often have positive things to say for Putin, but he has the nous to understand the significance of modern Western combat aircraft being supplied to Ukraine. You can see it in his increasingly hysterical threats of escalation and retaliation should this happen.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:24
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
By aircraft?
No, by fighting them in towns and cities which is not what armour is for, as they lack the room to manouever and are in close contact with armed people in buildings.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:30
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
Nothing on its own is going to turn the tide of the war, jets included, but good luck to Ukraine trying to wrestle back its territory without them.

Don't often have positive things to say for Putin, but he has the nous to understand the significance of modern Western combat aircraft being supplied to Ukraine. You can see it in his increasingly hysterical threats of escalation and retaliation should this happen.
I thought what Western jets might bring to the party is a whole new range of weaponry or the ability to enhance the operations of some of those already supplied by the west., some of long range may also deter launches from aircraft over the Black Sea etc.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:39
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
By aircraft?
Not that I have seen , mostly ground based anti-armour weapons , IEDs and truck bombs . All gruesome traps .
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:46
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Leopards within Syria? Sounds a bit strange to me. Wrong thread anyway.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:46
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Don't often have positive things to say for Putin, but he has the nous to understand the significance of modern Western combat aircraft being supplied to Ukraine. You can see it in his increasingly hysterical threats of escalation and retaliation should this happen.

Good. If he wants escalation, let's give it to him! I have said it several times now, it's time to stop pussyfooting around and hit him hard!
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:53
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Thanks!
How Leopards fared poorly in Syria, and how Turkey upgraded them with Ukrainian defensive kit.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ating-in-syria
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 12:56
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Originally Posted by FUMR
Good. If he wants escalation, let's give it to him! I have said it several times now, it's time to stop pussyfooting around and hit him hard!
“Us” being Ukraine, of course, lest we trigger WW The Last.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 13:05
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Originally Posted by FUMR
Good. If he wants escalation, let's give it to him! I have said it several times now, it's time to stop pussyfooting around and hit him hard!
Exactly that. Many Western leaders have stated that Putin's invasion can not be allowed to succeed, so they must now provide the means to ensure that it does not.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 13:11
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Originally Posted by FUMR
Don't often have positive things to say for Putin, but he has the nous to understand the significance of modern Western combat aircraft being supplied to Ukraine. You can see it in his increasingly hysterical threats of escalation and retaliation should this happen.

Good. If he wants escalation, let's give it to him! I have said it several times now, it's time to stop pussyfooting around and hit him hard!
Absolutely no disagreement from me on that.
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 13:16
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Summary:

This might, conceivably, be worth it if it acted as the trigger for supplies of more operationally suitable and sustainable jets for Ukraine…..

If Typhoon Tranche 1 is the symbolic silver bullet required to unlock such a deal, then the UK government must understand the costs for RAF readiness and capability of doing so, and urgently fund replacement aircraft, spare parts kits, munitions and engineering specialists to alleviate the impact on the core of the UK’s combat air capability.“….


https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...mbolic-gesture

Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture
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