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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 26th Jan 2023, 16:17
  #14001 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I find your post difficult to understand. When you write " They end when there is no fuel, food, energy, weapons or will left to fight them" you make it sound as if this is mutual exhaustion and the opponents have fought themselves to a standstill and then subsequently quote WW2 as an example. I can't agree with that. The Allies finished by steam-rollering the Germans into unconditional surrender. That is exactly the opposite of what you claim. I would agree with you on the other wars.
Also very very wrong regarding the Great War. "The Hundred Days" was a vindication of the way the citizen armies of GB, the Dominions, France [once it pulled itself together after the mutinies] and the fresh USA had learned and applied the lessons of all-arms cooperation, and the concept of exploiting a schwerpunkt. Germany had exhausted itself in its last throw of the dice in March and April, the population was near starvation, and the Eastern front was a mess. Mutual inability to continue the war did not happen. I doubt if it ever does.

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Old 26th Jan 2023, 16:28
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Late March means less than 8 weeks, or two months if you like. That's very fast, unless of course they have already prepared all the equipment that needs to be changed as UKR ones (at least comms) and the crews are already trained/in training. At least the crews must've been chosen and on their way to training already.
I wonder outloud if the slow-ish delivery of MBTs might pursuade Putin to go preemptively for another February offensive. Probably unwise because he appears weaker and Ukraine is certainly stronger. Tactical nuclear might do the trick for him, but unless NATO is even more full of wind and p1ss than the barber's cat, the response would erase his occupying forces.

Then we get to the more general threat of a nuclear exchange. If the tea lady on the 6th floor in Defence knows it will happen, we would like to be told who the targets are; my survival bunker needs refurbishing.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 16:42
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Then we get to the more general threat of a nuclear exchange. If the tea lady on the 6th floor in Defence knows it will happen, we would like to be told who the targets are; my survival bunker needs refurbishing.
Could do worse than copy the pindar. I spent an unhappy few months working down there 30 years ago. During my short stint in MB there were only gods on the 6th floor and above. Mere mortals weren't allowed up there.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 16:54
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
A cracking interview. 30 mins but worth watching through if only to watch a prize BS merchant in action.
If you leave the BS aside you can at least see quite well where they miscalculated and how badly they miscalculated. And now they have zero clue how to get out of this mess with the head up high.
They totally underestimated the 'West'. And we are a not totally unguilty for this. The general image we left as a whole was obsiously to heterogeneous, pondering, split, selfish, undecisive. Now, Russia has found out that when it counts the 'West' can act quite united. And if they count 1 + 1 they would find that the capability gap is orders of magnitudes bigger than they probably expected in their worst nightmares. They are worried over 150 Leopards + Abrams. The 'West' has >5000 of those. 30 HIMARS (w/o ATACMS) +20 CAESARs + 15 PzH2000 + a few more modern howitzers cause Havoc with them. The 'West' has hundreds of each of those. And this covers only the 'weak spot' of the 'West', i.e. its land forces. The real strength of the 'West' is its Air Force. With totally overwhelming disparity: 1000+ Top Gen 5 Fighters vs. 5- 10 dubious ones. 1400 Gen4.5 Fighters vs. 220 (+ 150 Gen4.5 Bombers). + >3000 Gen 4 Fighters vs 200 + 270 Gen 4 Bombers. And this is not even considering real world capability.
They are up sh*t creek without a paddle and they know it. That's why also this guy was keeping the implicit nuclear threat up. It's their last straw.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 17:33
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Also very very wrong regarding the Great War. "The Hundred Days" was a vindication of the way the citizen armies of GB, the Dominions, France [once it pulled itself together after the mutinies] and the fresh USA had learned and applied the lessons of all-arms cooperation, and the concept of exploiting a schwerpunkt. Germany had exhausted itself in its last throw of the dice in March and April, the population was near starvation, and the Eastern front was a mess. Mutual inability to continue the war did not happen. I doubt if it ever does.
I wasn't sure about WW1, so had a quick read up. Given that the war ended in an armistice and not a surrender, that the the aggressor nation was not physically invaded and (imo ) both sides were exhausted ( American influx excluded ) then I would say that is in line with uxb's premise.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:01
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Originally Posted by megan
Tea lady on the top floor?
Tea person
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:07
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Canada sends four Leopards and a training team to Ukraine.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/cana...says-1.6247335
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:11
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
*Tea person

*other drinks are available
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:22
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Every time one thinks one has seen it all... the Russkies take incompetence yet a step further.



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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:25
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Coming soon to a sky nr you..

​​​​​​​
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:29
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Just watched that Interview:

I found it hard to work out the fact that Dmitiri Trenin said right at the end, "That the stakes are so much higher for Russia, I think that Russia will prevail over the West".

Well, he might be right. However, given the numbers as Henra is claiming in #13987 (just above), how can Russia win?

Is Dmitiri another example of the Russian Motherland mindset (shown by many recent interviews of the normal Russian public), being superior, never failing, always strong, always survive?
Or was the talk of 'maybe' Nuclear weapons being used as a last means for Russia to PREVAIL...?
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 18:46
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US sends the beefed up A2 version of the Abrams. Good.


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Old 26th Jan 2023, 19:13
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Just how sad is this regardless of sides.



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Old 26th Jan 2023, 19:41
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I wasn't sure about WW1, so had a quick read up. Given that the war ended in an armistice and not a surrender, that the the aggressor nation was not physically invaded and (imo ) both sides were exhausted ( American influx excluded ) then I would say that is in line with uxb's premise.
The German army was routed utterly before it had got back home.
A slower read would reveal that there was a BAOR occupying the Rhineland in 1919, that Germany was starving and that massive reparations were exacted.
the British Army, mostly conscripts, led by very experienced NCOs and officers was far from exhausted. Tempered in tbe flames.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 19:55
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Could do worse than copy the pindar. I spent an unhappy few months working down there 30 years ago. During my short stint in MB there were only gods on the 6th floor and above. Mere mortals weren't allowed up there.
I only need room for my wives. As the tea person is a fount of knowledge I want a hotline to him/ her/ they/ it.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 19:59
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What a bunch of muppets..

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Old 26th Jan 2023, 20:04
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Langleybaston


Thanks for that correction my mother was born in an American hospital in the French part of the occupied territory, grandfather having been gassed earlier in WWI was now part of the army of occupation.

Clive R
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 20:28
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I wasn't sure about WW1, so had a quick read up. Given that the war ended in an armistice and not a surrender, that the the aggressor nation was not physically invaded and (imo ) both sides were exhausted ( American influx excluded ) then I would say that is in line with uxb's premise.
Wasn't one of the deciding factors in Germany loosing WW1 the successful naval blockade of food and supplies? Ironically the same tactic Hitler tried in WW2 but failed.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 20:28
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It's only fair that the Z-team gets tanks as donation as well


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Old 26th Jan 2023, 20:53
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Wasn't one of the deciding factors in Germany loosing WW1 the successful naval blockade of food and supplies? Ironically the same tactic Hitler tried in WW2 but failed.
Yes I believe so but the naval side of the Great War is not in my Mastermind brief.
The even broader picture is the respective governments' ability and willingness to care for soldiers' dependents. In this respect, the British led the field, with compulsory allotments from soldiers pay, and dependents' allowances based on status and age. By contrast, the French and Germans were not "Welfare State". This also applied to death benefits, disablement, wounds etc.
That is emphatically NOT to claim that British soldiers and dependents were particularly well paid or treated, just better than others. Apart from minor incidents [in the scale of things] the British army was not subjected to mutinies, mass desertions and malingering. A huge subject, a long way from aviation, but has some bearing on UKR versus RUS, and the welfare systems in place.
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