Is Ukraine about to have a war?
This is From the live Q and A on Sky News today.
I was ridiculed and insulted on this forum when I said the West was doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but didn’t want them to win too quickly.
I really did know what I was talking about. I am not a politician or General, but I do work in Defence at a high level.
It really has been the case, as alluded to - although not specifically referenced - by Hamish.
The West wanted Russia to be ground down, and now they are stepping up, but not so far as to remove their own capabilities as they may soon be needed as Russia will lash out as their reality starts to bite.
Hopefully the West is ready for a fight now, because this conflict is not going to remain inside the lines.
I was ridiculed and insulted on this forum when I said the West was doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but didn’t want them to win too quickly.
I really did know what I was talking about. I am not a politician or General, but I do work in Defence at a high level.
It really has been the case, as alluded to - although not specifically referenced - by Hamish.
The West wanted Russia to be ground down, and now they are stepping up, but not so far as to remove their own capabilities as they may soon be needed as Russia will lash out as their reality starts to bite.
Hopefully the West is ready for a fight now, because this conflict is not going to remain inside the lines.
Edit due to my nosey GSD hitting the submit button with his nose.
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So final number/goal will be 88, 2 battalions. Bunderswehr has 44 tanks per battalion
German government announces delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the Cabinet on Wednesday that Germany will further increase military support for Ukraine. He said the German government had decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with "Leopard 2" main battle tanks. This is the result of intensive consultations that took place with Germany's closest European and international partners.
"This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We are acting in a closely coordinated and concerted manner internationally," the chancellor said in Berlin.
The goal is to quickly assemble two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will in turn hand over Leopard-2 tanks. Training of the Ukrainian crews is to begin rapidly in Germany. In addition to training, the package will also include logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.
Germany will issue the relevant transfer licenses to the partner countries that want to quickly deliver Leopard-2 tanks from their stocks to Ukraine, he said.
German government announces delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the Cabinet on Wednesday that Germany will further increase military support for Ukraine. He said the German government had decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with "Leopard 2" main battle tanks. This is the result of intensive consultations that took place with Germany's closest European and international partners.
"This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We are acting in a closely coordinated and concerted manner internationally," the chancellor said in Berlin.
The goal is to quickly assemble two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will in turn hand over Leopard-2 tanks. Training of the Ukrainian crews is to begin rapidly in Germany. In addition to training, the package will also include logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.
Germany will issue the relevant transfer licenses to the partner countries that want to quickly deliver Leopard-2 tanks from their stocks to Ukraine, he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64404928
So far this is not a policy designed to completely overwhelm a Russian mobilization or drive the Russians out of Ukraine. It’s a policy seemingly intended to blunt any new offensive, to potentially make the Russians lose more ground, and to show Moscow that it can’t win a grinding war any more easily than it initially hoped to win a short one. It’s an escalation that assumes the Russians need a little more convincing, and then they’ll be open to the de-escalation that we haven’t been able to achieve.But a similar logic also seems to be driving the Russian strategy — to the extent that we can see through the dark glass between us and Russian intentions, that is.
From the assumed Russian perspective, Ukrainian gains in the fall and European resilience in the winter have made military success only more urgent. There’s no point in elaborating on peace proposals so long as the Ukrainians are convinced that they can win a total victory, and they’re more convinced of that than ever.
So only once that hope is broken by force of arms can a settlement acceptable to Moscow begin to emerge. Which makes it necessary to prove militarily that stalemate is absolutely the best that Kyiv can hope for, that American and European support may suffice to hold ground but not to sweepingly reclaim it. And such proof can be delivered only through escalation, with de-escalation hopefully waiting on the other side.
From the assumed Russian perspective, Ukrainian gains in the fall and European resilience in the winter have made military success only more urgent. There’s no point in elaborating on peace proposals so long as the Ukrainians are convinced that they can win a total victory, and they’re more convinced of that than ever.
So only once that hope is broken by force of arms can a settlement acceptable to Moscow begin to emerge. Which makes it necessary to prove militarily that stalemate is absolutely the best that Kyiv can hope for, that American and European support may suffice to hold ground but not to sweepingly reclaim it. And such proof can be delivered only through escalation, with de-escalation hopefully waiting on the other side.
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Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?
Seriously?
Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
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Ha!
Fair question, and I know a lot more than I can say.
Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?
Seriously?
Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?
Seriously?
Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
That leaves nuclear and chemical/biological; the chemical/biological is off the table for the same reason it hasn't been used anywhere else since WW1.
The next option would be tactical nuclear, which would bring a Gulf war type of response from western air forces and which would leave them with no more air defense, no more air force and no remaining option other than all out nuclear war, which would be suicide: the end of Russia.
Russia is holding a bad hand in this game.
It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.
I think we have been watching too many Hollywood movies, even the Russians believe them.
Last edited by Xeptu; 26th Jan 2023 at 00:20.
How do you know that, the evidence says otherwise. excluding naval forces. There is so much corruption in the Russian Army I doubt even the Russians know what they truly have available to them. In any case there is the issue of logistics and that's been an epic fail from day one.
It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.
It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
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Turkish ship allegedly docked in Kherson hit and on fire.
Destroyed airport outside Kherson, RyanAir signage remarkably survived well.
Destroyed airport outside Kherson, RyanAir signage remarkably survived well.
Putin threatened to teach Ukraine (and the West) a lesson. He has done that. It has hurt him just as much as it hurt us, a kind of Pyrrhic lesson.
"We can all kind of see now what you are capable of doing. Bravo. And thank you for helping us to see our priorities more clearly."
Now it is time for Putin to declare an end to it. No one else can.
"We can all kind of see now what you are capable of doing. Bravo. And thank you for helping us to see our priorities more clearly."
Now it is time for Putin to declare an end to it. No one else can.
Last edited by jolihokistix; 26th Jan 2023 at 00:26.
If Russia was willing to invade after only 13,000 Ethnic Russians were allegedly killed in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. I doubt they will go home after 188,000 KIA and a few shed loads of wounded .
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.
Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
Your argument isn't very persuasive.
You should know better than to make an argument on that basis.
Is he more likely to use wmd in a country that doesn't border him than one that does?
The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.
The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.
Only half a speed-brake
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Interesting article. He’s right about the SAW, but wrong about the F-16s.
UKR wants aircraft for CAS as much as AD, which is why the wanted A-10s, which they won’t get.
As with Abrams/Leopard, F-16s are abundant in Europe and allies, such the Dutch, are willing to provide them, and the US ambassador to the OSCE says the USA will allow them to do so.
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...y-for-ukraine/
Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine
UKR wants aircraft for CAS as much as AD, which is why the wanted A-10s, which they won’t get.
As with Abrams/Leopard, F-16s are abundant in Europe and allies, such the Dutch, are willing to provide them, and the US ambassador to the OSCE says the USA will allow them to do so.
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...y-for-ukraine/
Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine
If Russia was willing to invade after only 13,000 Ethnic Russians were allegedly killed in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. I doubt they will go home after 188,000 KIA and a few shed loads of wounded .
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
There is a single individual causing the commotion, it isn't the families that
There are a lot more jumpers awaiting suitable 6th floor apertures to be opened for them by their dear leader....
Please explain what part of sending the
To permit Lord Farquard to prevail and have a say in any peace agreement is to deny justice for the Russians as well as the Ukrainians that have been slaughtered because on one mans ego.
I chased boomers at the peak of the Cold War, and was impressed by the "show" that was always put on by the USSR, but there was always a lingering question; every part of our interaction with the red team air or naval assets seemed to have a lack of individual OSC decision making or initiative... it was rather reminiscent of their famous General, Potemkin.
The Russian contempt for maintenance and design finesse beyond a sledge hammer, seemed to still be in play with their more recent tests out of that amazing pink elephant the Typhoon class. Watching the failure rates of the tests, and the spectacular destruction of one that was early enough to damage the typhoon launch test platform, (there's an admiral that needed khaki not whites...) makes one curious as to who actually Russia threatens with their buckets of sunshine. Now, they only have to get lucky occasionally, but, the tests for the Borei seemed to indicate that SPF-1M and blackout sunnies would be de rigueur for the effort to punish anyone with a bucket that has a faded hammer and sickle peeling off the side. Assuming the missile touch paper works, and assuming the GNC doesn't come home ta mamma, as seems to be a trend, then the bucket of sunshine that has been maintained with the same level of care, discipline and devotion as the BMP, BMD's and T-34s that they appear to be starting to be needing to crank up, well, it may be rowdy, but it would be national sepukku at the same time. Will the obsequies Generalissimos and court jesters and the cook intervene? depends if they have any family or not I guess.
Russia has a natural born leader, he is sitting in a gulag at the behest of Count Vlad. He has the potential to be the future for Russia, and arguably to limit the extent of the collapse of the federation, or at least make it a managed process. I agree with the analysis of Peter Zeihan, there is a 4+2 letter word in Russia's future due to the over compensation of the King who would be Emperor.
IMHO.
On aviation content... The KA-52 and the Su-25 losses recently over Ukraine may point to the fact that it is a pretty bruising bit of airspace to flop about in, but it also says a lot about the competency and tactics of the
(I'm sitting in a bar of a former marine driver, and that was apparently worth a clip around the ears!)
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Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine
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Not intended as pessimism. Just seen loads of logistic support nightmares over the years. Far too many. Reducing them gives a huge advantage. The ability of humans to f**k things up by sending the wrong stuff to the wrong place never ceased to surprise me. An example. 280SU, Akrotiri, 1973. Demand put in for some miniature valves to fix some kit. Three weeks later a truck arrived loaded with wooden crates that needed a fork lift to move. Each crate contained a CRT. Some f**kwit in the system had made an error in transcribing the NSN. That error turned a valve that was around an inch long into a CRT that was about 3ft long.
Ukraine is very able and adept at adapting to challenges quickly. I've no doubt that will make this "mix and match" collection of kit work well. Just pisses me off that the simplest option (just letting them have widely used and supported Leopards) took a near-crisis to make happen. Germany should have done what it's belatedly decided to do (after being leant on by many other countries) weeks ago. Hell, they should have initiated it, not fallen into line after being given a good kicking.
Ukraine is very able and adept at adapting to challenges quickly. I've no doubt that will make this "mix and match" collection of kit work well. Just pisses me off that the simplest option (just letting them have widely used and supported Leopards) took a near-crisis to make happen. Germany should have done what it's belatedly decided to do (after being leant on by many other countries) weeks ago. Hell, they should have initiated it, not fallen into line after being given a good kicking.
There is a good article on the BBC which explains the background to the German decision very well. I do not seem to be able to post a link to it at the moment, but it is worth a read.
Incidentally I was in Berlin on Tuesday and Wednesday and took part in the Free the Lep 2 demonstration on Tuesday.
Also I took the opportunity to meet an American woman we met in Aquba in Jordan in March last year, who works in the US State Department who was over here involved in the negotiations on this. When she was in Jordan she was arranging procurement of Soviet kit, so knows far more than anyone I have heard talk on the subject, and she is very guarded in what she says. However she thinks Scholz has played a really good game in getting his party on side, and keeping a united European front, but also making sure that the US has also come in on the tank deal. His main issue she and indeed I feel will now be selling it to the 40% of the German population who either do not like the change from the old refusal to sell arms to conflict zones, or are from the East of Germany, and have a hankering for some of the old GDR times, if not the Stasi.
Also when people talk of German peace dividend you also have to realise how much money was ploughed into renovating the old GDR areas. It is a relatively rich country, but that in particular was a very big bill which is still ongoing.
Its been an interesting week over here 🙂
Cheers
Mr Mac
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