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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 25th Jan 2023, 21:48
  #13961 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
This is From the live Q and A on Sky News today.
I was ridiculed and insulted on this forum when I said the West was doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but didnít want them to win too quickly.
I really did know what I was talking about. I am not a politician or General, but I do work in Defence at a high level.
It really has been the case, as alluded to - although not specifically referenced - by Hamish.
The West wanted Russia to be ground down, and now they are stepping up, but not so far as to remove their own capabilities as they may soon be needed as Russia will lash out as their reality starts to bite.
Hopefully the West is ready for a fight now, because this conflict is not going to remain inside the lines.
As someone who works in defence at a high level you should be privy to strategies in place should Russia start turning the screw the wrong way. The West is very ready and more than capable of applying military pressure upon Russia on a level that would far exceed its ability to defend efficiently. Now, if your inference to stepping 'outside the lines' is nuclear then that risk has been handled impeccably so far, and although nobody wants it Russia would be hit with a retaliation beyond modern comprehension should they be so stupid. To summarise, nothing today has changed other than Ukraine being able to defend and recapture its territories more aggressively.

Edit due to my nosey GSD hitting the submit button with his nose.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 22:08
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Originally Posted by rattman
So final number/goal will be 88, 2 battalions. Bunderswehr has 44 tanks per battalion

German government announces delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the Cabinet on Wednesday that Germany will further increase military support for Ukraine. He said the German government had decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with "Leopard 2" main battle tanks. This is the result of intensive consultations that took place with Germany's closest European and international partners.
"This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We are acting in a closely coordinated and concerted manner internationally," the chancellor said in Berlin.
The goal is to quickly assemble two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will in turn hand over Leopard-2 tanks. Training of the Ukrainian crews is to begin rapidly in Germany. In addition to training, the package will also include logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.
Germany will issue the relevant transfer licenses to the partner countries that want to quickly deliver Leopard-2 tanks from their stocks to Ukraine, he said.
Ukrainian tank battalions have 31 vehicles, which is why the US are supplying 31 M1 Abrams.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64404928
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 22:38
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So far this is not a policy designed to completely overwhelm a Russian mobilization or drive the Russians out of Ukraine. Itís a policy seemingly intended to blunt any new offensive, to potentially make the Russians lose more ground, and to show Moscow that it canít win a grinding war any more easily than it initially hoped to win a short one. Itís an escalation that assumes the Russians need a little more convincing, and then theyíll be open to the de-escalation that we havenít been able to achieve.But a similar logic also seems to be driving the Russian strategy ó to the extent that we can see through the dark glass between us and Russian intentions, that is.

From the assumed Russian perspective, Ukrainian gains in the fall and European resilience in the winter have made military success only more urgent. Thereís no point in elaborating on peace proposals so long as the Ukrainians are convinced that they can win a total victory, and theyíre more convinced of that than ever.

So only once that hope is broken by force of arms can a settlement acceptable to Moscow begin to emerge. Which makes it necessary to prove militarily that stalemate is absolutely the best that Kyiv can hope for, that American and European support may suffice to hold ground but not to sweepingly reclaim it. And such proof can be delivered only through escalation, with de-escalation hopefully waiting on the other side.
The U.S. Has Made a Coldly Logical Decision in Ukraine. So Has Russia.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 23:15
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Originally Posted by henra
You are repeating this over and over again. But I wonder: With which surplus troops and which surplus arms? The ones Russia deems not required currently for the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine since it is going so well for them there?
Fair question, and I know a lot more than I can say.

Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?

Seriously?

Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 23:34
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
This is From the live Q and A on Sky News today.
I was ridiculed and insulted on this forum when I said the West was doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but didnít want them to win too quickly.
I was ridiculed (well not really) when I said that drones would play a major role in this conflict, and that it was like being back at 1914 and watching aircraft be added to the fray

Ha!
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 23:42
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Fair question, and I know a lot more than I can say.

Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?

Seriously?

Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
Yes, Russia has already expended most of its 'rocket forces' and their naval assets have been rendered ineffective for anything other than for standing far back and launching some of the few missiles they have left. They will not commit their air force because they know they would lose much of it and then they would be defenseless, their air force is only valuable as long as they still have it.

That leaves nuclear and chemical/biological; the chemical/biological is off the table for the same reason it hasn't been used anywhere else since WW1.
The next option would be tactical nuclear, which would bring a Gulf war type of response from western air forces and which would leave them with no more air defense, no more air force and no remaining option other than all out nuclear war, which would be suicide: the end of Russia.

Russia is holding a bad hand in this game.

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Old 26th Jan 2023, 00:47
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.
How do you know that, the evidence says otherwise. excluding naval forces. There is so much corruption in the Russian Army I doubt even the Russians know what they truly have available to them. In any case there is the issue of logistics and that's been an epic fail from day one.

It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.

I think we have been watching too many Hollywood movies, even the Russians believe them.

Last edited by Xeptu; 26th Jan 2023 at 01:20.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:01
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
How do you know that, the evidence says otherwise. excluding naval forces. There is so much corruption in the Russian Army I doubt even the Russians know what they truly have available to them. In any case there is the issue of logistics and that's been an epic fail from day one.

It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.
Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.

Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.

I am right. Believe me or donít - I could not care less.

Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:09
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Turkish ship allegedly docked in Kherson hit and on fire.
​​​​​​​


Destroyed airport outside Kherson, RyanAir signage remarkably survived well.

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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:13
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Putin threatened to teach Ukraine (and the West) a lesson. He has done that. It has hurt him just as much as it hurt us, a kind of Pyrrhic lesson.

"We can all kind of see now what you are capable of doing. Bravo. And thank you for helping us to see our priorities more clearly."

Now it is time for Putin to declare an end to it. No one else can.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 26th Jan 2023 at 01:26.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:22
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If Russia was willing to invade after only 13,000 Ethnic Russians were allegedly killed in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. I doubt they will go home after 188,000 KIA and a few shed loads of wounded .
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:28
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.

Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.

I am right. Believe me or donít - I could not care less.

Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
Is he more likely to use wmd in a country that doesn't border him than one that does?

The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.

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Old 26th Jan 2023, 01:30
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.
Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.
I am right. Believe me or donít - I could not care less.
Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.
What you are engaging in is false appeal to authority, which is a logical fallacy.

Your argument isn't very persuasive.
You should know better than to make an argument on that basis.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 03:02
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Originally Posted by unmanned_droid
Is he more likely to use wmd in a country that doesn't border him than one that does?

The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.
I don't know what to believe anymore. I don't even believe the Russians themselves know what to believe. Has anyone considered the possibility that Russian missile fired into Ukraine with the dummy warhead on it was actually what was intended.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 03:59
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-wagner-group


Contract military content, no aviation.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 05:05
  #13976 (permalink)  
 
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I am not a politician or General, but I do work in Defence at a high level
Tea lady on the top floor?
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 06:56
  #13977 (permalink)  
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Interesting article. Heís right about the SAW, but wrong about the F-16s.

UKR wants aircraft for CAS as much as AD, which is why the wanted A-10s, which they wonít get.

As with Abrams/Leopard, F-16s are abundant in Europe and allies, such the Dutch, are willing to provide them, and the US ambassador to the OSCE says the USA will allow them to do so.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...y-for-ukraine/

Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 08:29
  #13978 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by fitliker
If Russia was willing to invade after only 13,000 Ethnic Russians were allegedly killed in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. I doubt they will go home after 188,000 KIA and a few shed loads of wounded .
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.
....er...., ... ah..., why?

There is a single individual causing the commotion, it isn't the families that are were getting Lada's without radios or electrics.... It's probably not the punters around the pac ocean coast that are given 10lbs of rotting fish from their "commander in chef", for the valuable expiration of the use by date of their sons and husbands... (it might be a fair trade, but somehow I doubt it really cuts the borsch).

There are a lot more jumpers awaiting suitable 6th floor apertures to be opened for them by their dear leader....

Please explain what part of sending the USSR Russia back into the pre Napoleon era is an improvement for any of the мамочка and папочка's out there who have lost their next generation, butchered by the dude in the "Crimlin". Putin has taken the Russian people for a ride and at some point tovarich Idi Amin meets a sticky wicket end. I don't want to see the master strategist as a pavement pizza, that would not be the coda that this show needs; he needs to be held accountable by his population, that is the manner to conclude the saga of Lord Vader Farquard.

To permit Lord Farquard to prevail and have a say in any peace agreement is to deny justice for the Russians as well as the Ukrainians that have been slaughtered because on one mans ego.

I chased boomers at the peak of the Cold War, and was impressed by the "show" that was always put on by the USSR, but there was always a lingering question; every part of our interaction with the red team air or naval assets seemed to have a lack of individual OSC decision making or initiative... it was rather reminiscent of their famous General, Potemkin.

The Russian contempt for maintenance and design finesse beyond a sledge hammer, seemed to still be in play with their more recent tests out of that amazing pink elephant the Typhoon class. Watching the failure rates of the tests, and the spectacular destruction of one that was early enough to damage the typhoon launch test platform, (there's an admiral that needed khaki not whites...) makes one curious as to who actually Russia threatens with their buckets of sunshine. Now, they only have to get lucky occasionally, but, the tests for the Borei seemed to indicate that SPF-1M and blackout sunnies would be de rigueur for the effort to punish anyone with a bucket that has a faded hammer and sickle peeling off the side. Assuming the missile touch paper works, and assuming the GNC doesn't come home ta mamma, as seems to be a trend, then the bucket of sunshine that has been maintained with the same level of care, discipline and devotion as the BMP, BMD's and T-34s that they appear to be starting to be needing to crank up, well, it may be rowdy, but it would be national sepukku at the same time. Will the obsequies Generalissimos and court jesters and the cook intervene? depends if they have any family or not I guess.

Russia has a natural born leader, he is sitting in a gulag at the behest of Count Vlad. He has the potential to be the future for Russia, and arguably to limit the extent of the collapse of the federation, or at least make it a managed process. I agree with the analysis of Peter Zeihan, there is a 4+2 letter word in Russia's future due to the over compensation of the King who would be Emperor.

IMHO.

On aviation content... The KA-52 and the Su-25 losses recently over Ukraine may point to the fact that it is a pretty bruising bit of airspace to flop about in, but it also says a lot about the competency and tactics of the USSR RF. Re ORAC's comments, I think the A-10C has a capability to be used effectively quickly by the Ukrainians. (no offence to my hog driver friends, the Ukies are familiar with LL Ops and have demonstrated the ability to use the Su-25 effectively but in limited numbers. I think that the A-10 can make a difference. The AH1Z etc could also make a difference, after all marine drivers can learn to drive them and not break them... Ouch.
(I'm sitting in a bar of a former marine driver, and that was apparently worth a clip around the ears!)



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Old 26th Jan 2023, 10:15
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Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine
It does however open up the field to a whole load of weapons types that the current fleet cannot carry.
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Old 26th Jan 2023, 10:58
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Not intended as pessimism. Just seen loads of logistic support nightmares over the years. Far too many. Reducing them gives a huge advantage. The ability of humans to f**k things up by sending the wrong stuff to the wrong place never ceased to surprise me. An example. 280SU, Akrotiri, 1973. Demand put in for some miniature valves to fix some kit. Three weeks later a truck arrived loaded with wooden crates that needed a fork lift to move. Each crate contained a CRT. Some f**kwit in the system had made an error in transcribing the NSN. That error turned a valve that was around an inch long into a CRT that was about 3ft long.

Ukraine is very able and adept at adapting to challenges quickly. I've no doubt that will make this "mix and match" collection of kit work well. Just pisses me off that the simplest option (just letting them have widely used and supported Leopards) took a near-crisis to make happen. Germany should have done what it's belatedly decided to do (after being leant on by many other countries) weeks ago. Hell, they should have initiated it, not fallen into line after being given a good kicking.
Agrajag
There is a good article on the BBC which explains the background to the German decision very well. I do not seem to be able to post a link to it at the moment, but it is worth a read.

Incidentally I was in Berlin on Tuesday and Wednesday and took part in the Free the Lep 2 demonstration on Tuesday.

Also I took the opportunity to meet an American woman we met in Aquba in Jordan in March last year, who works in the US State Department who was over here involved in the negotiations on this. When she was in Jordan she was arranging procurement of Soviet kit, so knows far more than anyone I have heard talk on the subject, and she is very guarded in what she says. However she thinks Scholz has played a really good game in getting his party on side, and keeping a united European front, but also making sure that the US has also come in on the tank deal. His main issue she and indeed I feel will now be selling it to the 40% of the German population who either do not like the change from the old refusal to sell arms to conflict zones, or are from the East of Germany, and have a hankering for some of the old GDR times, if not the Stasi.

Also when people talk of German peace dividend you also have to realise how much money was ploughed into renovating the old GDR areas. It is a relatively rich country, but that in particular was a very big bill which is still ongoing.

Its been an interesting week over here 🙂

Cheers
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