Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Wikiposts
Search
Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 27th Mar 2022, 18:32
  #3641 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glorious Devon
Posts: 2,725
Received 1,087 Likes on 660 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
This is seriously bad news for all of us.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...11646157422597
Winds for the first 2 days will blow any isotopes towards Russia. Then rain and snow for the next few days
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/.../chernobyl/ext
Ninthace is online now  
Old 27th Mar 2022, 21:28
  #3642 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,762
Received 156 Likes on 78 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninthace
Winds for the first 2 days will blow any isotopes towards Russia. Then rain and snow for the next few days
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/.../chernobyl/ext
And the same prevailing winds from the west will do the same to any fallout if Putin goes nuclear….taking careful aim and shooting himself in the foot. Of course we must remember he does not care about the Russian people or anyone else for that matter.
albatross is offline  
Old 27th Mar 2022, 22:07
  #3643 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,297
Received 749 Likes on 259 Posts
Which prevailing winds are these please: the surface wind forecasts, if to be believed, are just above light and variable and as likely to blow low level contaminants backwards and forwards, depending on the time scale studied.
However, what really matters is high level winds and precipitation.
langleybaston is offline  
Old 27th Mar 2022, 23:24
  #3644 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glorious Devon
Posts: 2,725
Received 1,087 Likes on 660 Posts
Originally Posted by langleybaston
Which prevailing winds are these please: the surface wind forecasts, if to be believed, are just above light and variable and as likely to blow low level contaminants backwards and forwards, depending on the time scale studied.
However, what really matters is high level winds and precipitation.
I linked to the weather forecast for the next two weeks. Precipitation is expected and surface winds are as shown. How much smoke and entrained radioactivity gets into the upper air would depend on the ferocity of the fire. It also depends where the fires are in relation to the contaminated areas. Have we any information on that?

Edit to add, 10,000 hectares went up in flames in 2020. It did not seem to cause a major incident.
Ninthace is online now  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 01:06
  #3645 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Washington.
Age: 74
Posts: 1,080
Received 151 Likes on 53 Posts
Willingness to Negotiate

I’m sorry to see the items Ukraine is willing to negotiate (e.g., Donbas and neutrality) but I totally understand considering the horrendous loss of life and limits of support by the west.

Zelensky is a true shepherd of his people.
GlobalNav is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 01:26
  #3646 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Cork
Posts: 52
Received 25 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by GlobalNav
I’m sorry to see the items Ukraine is willing to negotiate (e.g., Donbas and neutrality) but I totally understand considering the horrendous loss of life and limits of support by the west.

Zelensky is a true shepherd of his people.
Firstly consider his audience, this was an interview to Russian media for the consumption of the Russian public so he wants to reinforce that Ukraine is not the agressor.
Second, he said that he is willing to "discuss" neutrality and solutions for Donbas, politic speak for implying but not committing to anything.
Thirdly, that it would have to be approved by a referendum of the Ukrainian people who are in no mood to conceed their land to Russia despite what they are enduring, makes me think "Not a chance"
soarbum is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 01:41
  #3647 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,117
Received 2,957 Likes on 1,261 Posts
Agreed but isn’t that subject to a referendum of the people?

I do think it will be an error to give up their land.

I see Turkey is trying to negotiate a ceasefire, that could be a bad thing in allowing Russia to reorganise and resupply.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 03:07
  #3648 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Location: Worcestershire
Posts: 149
Received 11 Likes on 8 Posts
Russians lost three planes last night north of Kiev alone,

"The situation escalated closer to 22:00 as air alerts roared across the country! The Russian occupiers carried out a massive air raid from the north of Kyiv region, where they lost three planes at once. The occupiers fired cruise missiles on several Ukrainian infrastructure facilities. Two missiles were shot down by air defense units," the Air Force Command added.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...-missiles.html
MJ89 is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 06:26
  #3649 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 124
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If there really was so much forest burning I am pretty sure it would show on FIRMS https://[email protected],51.3,13z
Cannot see amything except a few smallish fires 6 days ago.
Usertim is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 07:07
  #3650 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,982
Received 155 Likes on 95 Posts
Surely they’ve smashed up enough of Ukraine by now? I think most reasonable people can see they have made their point. This is getting boring. Even out of sheer frustration is there any need to keep continuing this destruction?

Last edited by jolihokistix; 28th Mar 2022 at 07:23.
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 07:21
  #3651 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Rural England, thank God.
Posts: 720
Received 19 Likes on 11 Posts
I'm with Nutty on the error of ceding land.

This is worth a read:
https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-mi...lot-interview/

skua is online now  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 08:09
  #3652 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,580
Received 19 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Surely they’ve smashed up enough of Ukraine by now? I think most reasonable people can see they have made their point. This is getting boring. Even out of sheer frustration is there any need to keep continuing this destruction?
Nope, they still want it all. Ignore recent announcements regarding focusing on the Donbas.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 08:58
  #3653 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Age: 79
Posts: 543
Received 29 Likes on 17 Posts
Jolihokistix
I have to say that I am disappointed by the uncharacteristic insouciance of your post. One can only hope that it is the purest irony.
Barksdale Boy is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 09:38
  #3654 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,338
Received 108 Likes on 54 Posts
Originally Posted by dead_pan
Nope, they still want it all. Ignore recent announcements regarding focusing on the Donbas.
The only interesting question is whether this is a poor attempt at deception or a sign of disagreement inside the Russian leading circles
henra is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 09:55
  #3655 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,117
Received 2,957 Likes on 1,261 Posts
I personally think a ceasefire would be a bad thing, Russia is on its backfoot, it is lacking supplies, fuel, arms and moral, having a ceasefire would allow reinforcements to be brought up and troops resupplied, something that would be of benefit of them but to the detriment of the Ukrainians. I also feel sanctions should remain in place until the whole of the Ukraine is regained and reparations are made.. I also think it is a Russian bluff and they have no intention in stopping until the Country is taken.

I also think handing over territory would be a bad thing as well, you would be handing over what appears to be their main sea ports, lots of their industrial infrastructure and potential gas and oil fields in the region, as well their nuclear power plants..

I was watching MSNBC news last night and the retired US General and ex high ranking Government offical was saying we should be arming the Ukraine to the teeth, and that included M1 Tanks.

The trouble I see is keeping it on the front pages and support going for Ukraine, jolihokistix post is an example of what might happen.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:12
  #3656 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,117
Received 2,957 Likes on 1,261 Posts

NutLoose is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:15
  #3657 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,086
Received 68 Likes on 42 Posts
What will the upcoming victory day parade in Moscow mean for the future timing of the special operation? They have lost momentum, run out of fuel and ammo and now the mud season approaches. What can be paraded on May 9th? Wouldn't they need a face saving way out by then?
Less Hair is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:24
  #3658 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,580
Received 19 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
I personally think a ceasefire would be a bad thing, Russia is on its backfoot, it is lacking supplies, fuel, arms and moral, having a ceasefire would allow reinforcements to be brought up and troops resupplied, something that would be of benefit of them but to the detriment of the Ukrainians.
I agree. My only concern is that Russia has seemingly an endless supply of crappy troops and kit to throw into the maw. Even if the Ukrainian military kill 10 Russian troops for every one of theirs lost I still reckon Putin will keep going. This really could be the eastern front all over again.

I was watching MSNBC news last night and the retired US General and ex high ranking Government offical was saying we should be arming the Ukraine to the teeth, and that included M1 Tanks.
Not sure that MBTs will really change the situation on the ground, especially given the prevalence of anti-armour weaponry on both sides. Given the only significant weapon of note in Russia's locker is its artillery, anything to take this on could be a game changer - counter-battery radar, drones etc. The likes of Switchblade could really make a difference here.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:27
  #3659 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,580
Received 19 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by Less Hair
What will the upcoming victory day parade in Moscow mean for the future timing of the special operation? They have lost momentum, run out of fuel and ammo and now the mud season approaches. What can be paraded on May 9th? Wouldn't they need a face saving way out by then?
It was reported a week or two back that Russian command had issued a decree that the "special operation" must be complete by May 9th, presumably for this reason. I honestly think this may be why Putin is holding some of his forces back - he knows the world will be watching the parade intently...
dead_pan is offline  
Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:32
  #3660 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,580
Received 19 Likes on 11 Posts
Reports circulating of a renewed Russian push north and west of Kyiv. Intriguing to see whether this is a genuine push with fresh troops and equipment, an attempt to prevent encirclement, a blocking move to cover a withdrawal of forces, or something else.

Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up?
dead_pan is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.