Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Another wave of missiles inbound to the cities….
Main issue is that 12, very unique, tanks is a fairly useless force. The supply chain needed to just feed them with their unique ammunition (because of the rifled barrel) will be a massive headache. As a political statement of will and a PR exercise they are worth far more than their military value. Leopards in sufficient numbers are what Ukraine needs. It could also do with lots of Bradleys and Marders rather than MBTs.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
This morning’s air attack on Kyiv is reported to have been made with ballistic missiles fired from the north (Belarus?)
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I don’t know how what this young lady is talking about would work, a lending library’ of technical equipment to the front lines, when you need it, you tend to need it now, her camera presence is also ermmm strange, engaging but strange.
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Main issue is that 12, very unique, tanks is a fairly useless force. The supply chain needed to just feed them with their unique ammunition (because of the rifled barrel) will be a massive headache. As a political statement of will and a PR exercise they are worth far more than their military value. Leopards in sufficient numbers are what Ukraine needs. It could also do with lots of Bradleys and Marders rather than MBTs.
That immediately makes one wonder if training has already been carried out or will it be done on the 12 before they ship them, or even on the ones in Poland.
or is it? another post says
The first four tanks will immediately be sent to Ukraine, and the remaining eight tanks will soon follow.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Somebody is watching and learning……
Yesterday, the US army informed industry that intends to field a second IFPC interceptor optimized to defeat supersonic cruise missiles & large caliber rockets.
The army wants a technology demonstration inside 3 years.
Yesterday, the US army informed industry that intends to field a second IFPC interceptor optimized to defeat supersonic cruise missiles & large caliber rockets.
The army wants a technology demonstration inside 3 years.
It’s 12 initially straight away with 8 to follow on so 20, I would imagine the 8 follow ins are drom storage so will need to be brought back into service for them,
That immediately makes one wonder if training has already been carried out or will it be done on the 12 before they ship them, or even on the ones in Poland.
or is it? another post says
The first four tanks will immediately be sent to Ukraine, and the remaining eight tanks will soon follow.
That immediately makes one wonder if training has already been carried out or will it be done on the 12 before they ship them, or even on the ones in Poland.
or is it? another post says
The first four tanks will immediately be sent to Ukraine, and the remaining eight tanks will soon follow.
Getting them where they need to be could be difficult. Ukraine has no experience with 70 tonne MBTs. They don't have bridging kit for MBTs of this weight either. One certainty is that Ukraine has the ability to surprise when it comes to adapting kit to make best use of it. I still think that giving Ukraine loads of Bradleys and Marders would give them a real boost. The tactics for using them effectively are the same as they are used to with their BMPs, just with a better capability than their older kit.
Wouldn't like to be a Ukrainian logistics bloke. Keeping supply chains going for a liquorice all sorts array of kit will be a complete bugger.
Only half a speed-brake
May this be the last. Well overdue.
EDIT: Required knowledge - where the city of Dnipro actually is
, courtesy of @DefMon3 [https://twitter.com/DefMon3]
EDIT: Required knowledge - where the city of Dnipro actually is
Last edited by FlightDetent; 14th Jan 2023 at 17:35.
Only half a speed-brake
For those at least a little aware of the Twitter reporting scene and UKR media, Ilya Ponomarenko's name should ring a bell. I have been reading his excellent work for many months, even the story of how Kiyv Independent came to be is an interesting one.
The attack today is by all means of description an outstanding one in a demonic way. Sharing what he has to say is not appropriate screen-wise yet worth reading. Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) / Twitter Scroll a bit down to see, impossible to miss.
Meanwhile the official prez. Zelensky feed shows the same desperation, and they are definitely not sharing every single hit under that account.
The attack today is by all means of description an outstanding one in a demonic way. Sharing what he has to say is not appropriate screen-wise yet worth reading. Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) / Twitter Scroll a bit down to see, impossible to miss.
Meanwhile the official prez. Zelensky feed shows the same desperation, and they are definitely not sharing every single hit under that account.
Last edited by FlightDetent; 14th Jan 2023 at 17:33.
There has to be a point where Ukraine has to be given long range weapons to retaliate against these attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population. Ordinary Russians need to feel what it's like to be at war. Right now Putin's propaganda is keeping them unaware of the monstrous crimes he's committing. Just like the controversial bombing of German and Japanese cities in WWII, there has to be a point where giving ordinary Russians a dose of their own medicine is the right thing to do.
Only half a speed-brake
The indiscriminate targeting of civilians in GER / JAP was a phase when neither of the aggressors could have changed the outcome, a large-scale invasion would have a severely worse effect on the citizens and higher death cost on the US/allied side as well.
That does not compare here, for what they are actually worth Russia as a nation has not started fighting yet nor an invasion into their lands is the sole means / required to make them stop.
Having said that, they seemed to have crossed the line when anyone reasonably stopped fearing their nuclear arsenal. With crimes like the above, what worse could happen? They command a launch of 10 warheads, 5 actually leave the silos. One crashes on RF territory, two get intercepted, and the last pair does not detonate or miss the target. Worst case 2 work as the devil intended, death toll close 100k and within 10 days the whole of armed russian forces, globally is evaporated - with conventional armaments.
That does not compare here, for what they are actually worth Russia as a nation has not started fighting yet nor an invasion into their lands is the sole means / required to make them stop.
Having said that, they seemed to have crossed the line when anyone reasonably stopped fearing their nuclear arsenal. With crimes like the above, what worse could happen? They command a launch of 10 warheads, 5 actually leave the silos. One crashes on RF territory, two get intercepted, and the last pair does not detonate or miss the target. Worst case 2 work as the devil intended, death toll close 100k and within 10 days the whole of armed russian forces, globally is evaporated - with conventional armaments.
Many are saying that Bradleys and Marders would be sufficient. No they would not.
Bradleys and Marders do a great job in protecting the mech infantry supporting the MBT's and taking out IFV/APC/etc, Bradley has the TOW to take out MBT's, but it only carries a few and it is not designed to go against fortified positions.
The MBT's are needed to take out fortified positions and red MBT's etc, to make a breakthru possible. It really is a matter of combined arms (so they need the arty and MLR's amomgst much more).
There is really nothing that could provide the same combination of protection, firepower and mobility that MBT's bring with them.
There just isn't enough challys unless UK ships them all. The Abrams are way more complicated than Leos to bring fast enough to the battle field.
Leos: Europeans have the vehicles, the spares, the factories and the trained professional support throughout Europe. As an example the Poles could repair Ukrainian Leos already without further training.
Leo is the obvious choice and could be provided very fast.
The estimate is that an Ukrainian, experienced T72 crew could be converted as combat ready Leo crew in 6-8 weeks, maybe even faster.
Finland and Poland has experience in going from T72 to Leo2, that experience should be used in training.
Ukraine is consuming their inventory faster than it is being replenished with soviet kit as the west is running out of soviet vehicles. The western MBT's are needed in quantities, WITH other western weaponry, be it vehicles, armour, munitions, flying machines (UAV, rotary, jets...)...
The sooner Russkies are fought out of Ukraine, the less different new weapons systems need to be delivered (and by that: what will be delivered once UA runs out of Migs and Mils? Are we ready to replenish them with Vipers or something to its kin?)
Bradleys and Marders do a great job in protecting the mech infantry supporting the MBT's and taking out IFV/APC/etc, Bradley has the TOW to take out MBT's, but it only carries a few and it is not designed to go against fortified positions.
The MBT's are needed to take out fortified positions and red MBT's etc, to make a breakthru possible. It really is a matter of combined arms (so they need the arty and MLR's amomgst much more).
There is really nothing that could provide the same combination of protection, firepower and mobility that MBT's bring with them.
There just isn't enough challys unless UK ships them all. The Abrams are way more complicated than Leos to bring fast enough to the battle field.
Leos: Europeans have the vehicles, the spares, the factories and the trained professional support throughout Europe. As an example the Poles could repair Ukrainian Leos already without further training.
Leo is the obvious choice and could be provided very fast.
The estimate is that an Ukrainian, experienced T72 crew could be converted as combat ready Leo crew in 6-8 weeks, maybe even faster.
Finland and Poland has experience in going from T72 to Leo2, that experience should be used in training.
Ukraine is consuming their inventory faster than it is being replenished with soviet kit as the west is running out of soviet vehicles. The western MBT's are needed in quantities, WITH other western weaponry, be it vehicles, armour, munitions, flying machines (UAV, rotary, jets...)...
The sooner Russkies are fought out of Ukraine, the less different new weapons systems need to be delivered (and by that: what will be delivered once UA runs out of Migs and Mils? Are we ready to replenish them with Vipers or something to its kin?)
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FWIW, my view is that this is about inventive and well-coordinated combined arms. MBTs are part of that. Bradleys and Marders are part of that, along with BMPs. Ukraine has shown it's very capable of coming up with innovative tactics. Back when this war started many assumed Ukraine didn't stand a chance. They've shown the world that their indomitable spirit, courage and above all technical competence, has what it takes.
Neither Challengers or M1's are great for Ukraine's needs, least of all the Challengers. Leopards are a far better bet. If giving Ukraine a few Challengers acts as an incentive to get Leopards on trains to Ukraine then that will be worth it. They do need the rest of the combined arms suite, though. That means a wider range of kit to cover the whole of that tactical requirement.
Neither Challengers or M1's are great for Ukraine's needs, least of all the Challengers. Leopards are a far better bet. If giving Ukraine a few Challengers acts as an incentive to get Leopards on trains to Ukraine then that will be worth it. They do need the rest of the combined arms suite, though. That means a wider range of kit to cover the whole of that tactical requirement.
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FWIW, my view is that this is about inventive and well-coordinated combined arms. MBTs are part of that. Bradleys and Marders are part of that, along with BMPs. Ukraine has shown it's very capable of coming up with innovative tactics. Back when this war started many assumed Ukraine didn't stand a chance. They've shown the world that their indomitable spirit, courage and above all technical competence, has what it takes.
Neither Challengers or M1's are great for Ukraine's needs, least of all the Challengers. Leopards are a far better bet. If giving Ukraine a few Challengers acts as an incentive to get Leopards on trains to Ukraine then that will be worth it. They do need the rest of the combined arms suite, though. That means a wider range of kit to cover the whole of that tactical requirement.
Neither Challengers or M1's are great for Ukraine's needs, least of all the Challengers. Leopards are a far better bet. If giving Ukraine a few Challengers acts as an incentive to get Leopards on trains to Ukraine then that will be worth it. They do need the rest of the combined arms suite, though. That means a wider range of kit to cover the whole of that tactical requirement.
However, a single Challenger in a mixed formation could undertake the Conquerer or Sherman Firefly role. A force.multiplier
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The advantages I can see of Challenger is, cometh the night, cometh the advantage.
Presumably we do have reserve support equipment available. I have no idea how complex that is in total, or how much stuff is needed. Are we talking the equivalent of RE or REME workshops being required?
The Russian tanks aren't blind by night, as eg. T72B3's and T90's have the Sosna-U sights w. Thermal/laser. They even plan to equip T62's with Sosna-U (T62MV), but I doubt that they can do the upgrade in mass production, they have a lot on T64/72/80's to upgrade before they get there.
As more earlier versions and older models are being deliver to the battle from long term storage due ti high losses, those have the old sights and fire control systems which then again lack the features.
As more earlier versions and older models are being deliver to the battle from long term storage due ti high losses, those have the old sights and fire control systems which then again lack the features.
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Presumably the kit we are giving Ukraine is slowly being lost in combat?
If the West keeps dribbling kit Ukraine's way is the West not in danger of being attritted itself?
As for Challenger. By support do we mean spares, training or helicopter, infantry and artillery? Without actual military support won't Challenger be at risk from Drones, Arty and ATM's like any other tank?
If the West keeps dribbling kit Ukraine's way is the West not in danger of being attritted itself?
As for Challenger. By support do we mean spares, training or helicopter, infantry and artillery? Without actual military support won't Challenger be at risk from Drones, Arty and ATM's like any other tank?
Challenger has pretty good armour. It's pretty good at withstanding a frontal or top attack, more so than the lighter Russian kit. Like all MBTs it's more vulnerable at the sides and rear. I doubt the Russian loitering munition type drones present a significant threat. The fact that it's a bloody massive bit of kit compared with a T72 does make it harder to hide. The fact that it weighs around 50% more than a T72 is another issue when it comes to where it can go.
Main support issue will be getting ammunition in the right place at the right time. Because of the rifled barrel Challenger ammunition is unique to Challenger. The gun does offer some significant advantages in range and accuracy, which is one reason we stuck with it until the Challenger 3 "upgrade". Challenger 3 is more of a NATO compatibility change than an upgrade.
Main support issue will be getting ammunition in the right place at the right time. Because of the rifled barrel Challenger ammunition is unique to Challenger. The gun does offer some significant advantages in range and accuracy, which is one reason we stuck with it until the Challenger 3 "upgrade". Challenger 3 is more of a NATO compatibility change than an upgrade.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Wagner Group's apparent success in capturing Soledar appears to have been a Pyrrhic victory, with the mercenaries suffering such massive casualties that their future and ability to recover are now reportedly in doubt.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...671348736.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...671348736.html