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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Jan 2023, 10:06
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russia is reported to be considering forcing soldiers who are refusing to fight to serve in penal-style battalions under the command of the Wagner Group, which is desperate for new blood to replace its calamitous losses in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Isn't that something else they have copied from the Nazis in WW2?
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 10:16
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
The current situation has fundamentally changed. Ukraine is on the offensive and Russia is on the defensive. A defensive position is always easier to maintain over success in offensive operations and favours the Russian strategy of using human cannon fodder to become a physical obstacle to Ukrainian offensive operations. The simple fact is that Russia has a lot of cannon fodder it can call up. A general mobilization could easily produce a million men. Yes they will be poorly equipped and even worse led, but that is a lot of people to kill. As the saying goes quantity has a quality of its own.

The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Another consideration is that Putin is relatively free to pursue a scorched-earth policy with artillery and cruise missiles destroying Ukraine's infrastructure and killing civilians, whether intentionally or as collateral damage.

Ukraine, on the other hand and understandably, has no intention of adopting similar tactics in its attempt to retake Donbas/Crimea, as it would be killing its own citizens, and has at least one hand tied behind its back when it comes to targeting military installations within Russia.

I don't see that imbalance changing in the foreseeable future.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 10:21
  #13283 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Leaving the symbolism aside, does the supply of Bradley and Marder FV significantly improve Ukraine fighting abilities ? Do they not already have a large - albeit rather mixed - number of IFV from Britain, Australia and numerous other countries ? Are these Western units much better ( if at all ) than all the BMP variants ?
The previously donated vehicles weren't IFV's, they were APC's (eg M113's and Spartans). Main difference being that the IFV's are much more capable in fighting against mech squadrons and APC's are merely a cover in which to transport the troops.
To make it blunt: a Spartan has a 7,62mm main gun, the Bradley has 25mm main gun and anti-tank missiles. The Bradleys took out more soviet built T72's and T80s in Iraq than the Abrams did. The APC's will not do that.
So far Ukraine has had only Soviet era IFV's of which the BMP2 a primary in quantities, but they are slowly but surely running out of those and those can't use western munition. So to keep fightin the aggressor something else has to be provided.

The issue with soviet era kit is that it is being consumed continuously, and they will eventually be gone. Before they are all worn out or blasted out, the Ukrainians need new equipment. As the former Warsow pact countries have already donated most of their old gear and purchased new western goods, there are no sources left to get the BMP's or any other Soviet vehicles (the same applies to military aviation as well!). So the only option is to start providing western products. And the sooner the better.

The thing is combined arms (MBT's, IFV's, APC's etc altogether, something the Z-team has had difficulties to fathom) and the best option would be to provide Leos/Abrams with the IFV's and already provided APC's. Then the Ukrainians would be able to create truly NATO compatible mech groups. Now they are able to equip some battalions with these and have them go with the T72's and having additional headache from different logistics. Better than nothing, but why hold it back with the Leos as the IFV's are almost there? The Leos were built to take out the russkies, why not let them do what they were built for. There is already a rush to do it, ground is frozen nowadays so the winter campaign is already missing these, but once the ground is melt and dry they'd need them the latest, which means that the trainings should be already in action and goods on their way to Ukraine.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 10:39
  #13284 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Isn't that something else they have copied from the Nazis in WW2?
I think Uncle Joe's NKVD were the progenitors of that particular idea.

They haven't gone away you know....
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 11:06
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Win or stagnate

Ukraine needs to be armed to win this. All this pussyfooting around with bits here & there is playing into Putin's hands. Time to give them the kit and let them off the lead before it's too late.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 11:18
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Totally agree, I have said that from the start, drip feeding the Ukrainians means they are paying with their lives and the war is dragging on, give them the ability to totally overwhelm Russian forces once and for all, destroy their military capability for many a year and then once they have the routes cut, the bridge destroyed and Crimea in their hands, Russia's ability to launch anything from the Black Sea will be irradicated and their supply lines will be gone, then with the equipment they have they should be able to hold the Country.

Calls for the UK to provide Warriors.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1612408795577344000?cxt=HHwWgIDT0bbQtuAsAAAA

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Jan 2023 at 11:51.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 11:43
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Aviation Content:

Some of the Ukrainain Airforce that was ahem... destroyed in the first week of combat according to Russia.


remains of the downed Mig 29 of the Ukrainain Airforce that was possibly friendly fire, no news on the pilot

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Old 9th Jan 2023, 13:11
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There are now reports circulating that Britain is considering supplying Challenger 2 (maybe 10 units ) to Ukraine. How long would it take for experienced tankers to learn to use a new system sufficiently to go into combat ? How long to train maintenance crews able to support them ?
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 13:12
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Ukraine needs to be armed to win this. All this pussyfooting around with bits here & there is playing into Putin's hands. Time to give them the kit and let them off the lead before it's too late.
What I've been saying too. Pussyfooting is what most (not all, but most) western politicians are doing - as usual! It is now quite evident that any deal with Putin could not be trusted and would simply allow him time to strengthen again. Putin and his merry inner circle need to be totally defeated. There's NO other way!
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 13:47
  #13290 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
There are now reports circulating that Britain is considering supplying Challenger 2 (maybe 10 units ) to Ukraine. How long would it take for experienced tankers to learn to use a new system sufficiently to go into combat ? How long to train maintenance crews able to support them ?
Not very different from the Bradley training in terms of technical challenge I guess, and somewhere I recall a statement that the US plans to train 500 Ukrainians per month for the Bradley (legal notice: my memory may fail me, but something to that effect anyway).
It will be very different from peace time training anyway.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 13:56
  #13291 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks Beamr. I didn't think it would be too long for the tankers, but surely the support crew would need a lot of training for all the software, completely different engines, optics and control systems etc - longer than the operators. It would be quite a logistical pain to have another unique munition, but I'm sure they would happily accept that inconvenience if it helped break the log-jam for other nations to deliver MBT's.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 14:32
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Originally Posted by FUMR
What I've been saying too. Pussyfooting is what most (not all, but most) western politicians are doing - as usual! It is now quite evident that any deal with Putin could not be trusted and would simply allow him time to strengthen again. Putin and his merry inner circle need to be totally defeated. There's NO other way!
I could not agree more...however...

The current situation in which weapons and equipment are drip fed to the Ukrainians is a deliberate part of a larger plan. It does not suit the US or NATO for Russia to be overwhelmed and defeated in the short term. The Western allies would much rather that this conflict is drawn out for as long as possible, so that the Russian Military is continually degraded and morale falls ever lower. If Russia faced certain defeat 'tomorrow' and decided to leave Ukraine, they would be doing so with a sizeable military force still intact - the West does not want this.

The current situation, where Russia is ground down, expends weapons and men, and Ukraine is given 'just enough to not lose' is not an accident, it is very much by design.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 15:04
  #13293 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
There are now reports circulating that Britain is considering supplying Challenger 2 (maybe 10 units ) to Ukraine. How long would it take for experienced tankers to learn to use a new system sufficiently to go into combat ? How long to train maintenance crews able to support them ?
Not convinced this is anything other than a throw-away line.

Ten CR2 isn't even enough for an armoured squadron, let alone a coherent unit. there's also the small matter of ammo compatibility. The Ukes are already mixing 125mm FSU rounds, presumably some 115mm FSU rounds from captured older models, 105mm NATO rounds (AMX-10) plus potentially 120mm smooth-bore rounds if the Leo 2 transfer goes through.

Probably a much better idea to supply CS and CSS vehicles such as SPG, ammo reload vehicles, engineer vehicles etc.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 15:07
  #13294 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
I could not agree more...however...

The current situation in which weapons and equipment are drip fed to the Ukrainians is a deliberate part of a larger plan. It does not suit the US or NATO for Russia to be overwhelmed and defeated in the short term. The Western allies would much rather that this conflict is drawn out for as long as possible, so that the Russian Military is continually degraded and morale falls ever lower. If Russia faced certain defeat 'tomorrow' and decided to leave Ukraine, they would be doing so with a sizeable military force still intact - the West does not want this.

The current situation, where Russia is ground down, expends weapons and men, and Ukraine is given 'just enough to not lose' is not an accident, it is very much by design.
You have proof of such a conspiracy of course?
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:00
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
I could not agree more...however...

The current situation in which weapons and equipment are drip fed to the Ukrainians is a deliberate part of a larger plan. It does not suit the US or NATO for Russia to be overwhelmed and defeated in the short term. The Western allies would much rather that this conflict is drawn out for as long as possible, so that the Russian Military is continually degraded and morale falls ever lower. If Russia faced certain defeat 'tomorrow' and decided to leave Ukraine, they would be doing so with a sizeable military force still intact - the West does not want this.

The current situation, where Russia is ground down, expends weapons and men, and Ukraine is given 'just enough to not lose' is not an accident, it is very much by design.
And a few hundred thousand more Ukrainians are killed to facilitate this grand plan? I think not.
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:02
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Russian propoganda is desperate to divide the alliance and either turn the Ukranians against NATO or NATO against the Ukrainians. Textbook stuff. That's why they come out with rubbish like "NATO" wants to string it out". Nonsense.

Our governments make decisions far too slowly, which is why we often find ourselves on the back foot...and the Russians make lots of mistakes.

Hope we can speed ourselves up a bit.

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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:15
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
There are now reports circulating that Britain is considering supplying Challenger 2 (maybe 10 units ) to Ukraine. How long would it take for experienced tankers to learn to use a new system sufficiently to go into combat ? How long to train maintenance crews able to support them ?
Maintenance will be the challenge (no pun intended). Keeping the mechanical stuff going, mostly. I think the Ukrainian techies could handle adapting the comms/data/targeting side OK, they are good at that.

Getting experienced tank crews up to speed should be the easy bit. May be we could put some REME people just over the border in Poland or Romania to set up a maintenance unit and train the Ukrainian maintainers in the fine art of British mechanical engineering (rather them than me)?
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:20
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
The current situation in which weapons and equipment are drip fed to the Ukrainians is a deliberate part of a larger plan. It does not suit the US or NATO for Russia to be overwhelmed and defeated in the short term. The Western allies would much rather that this conflict is drawn out for as long as possible, so that the Russian Military is continually degraded and morale falls ever lower. .
Sorry, that's nonsense, once the opposition are degraded to the point of being totally crap, what advantage is there in further degradation ? The one thing that came as a surprise is how degraded Russia actually is. The UK has been going flat out in finding suitable kit to send. Suitable includes the ability of Ukraine to use what is sent with the minimum of training and compatibility with what is already deployed. Think back 11 months and NLAW was everywhere. Brimstone and Meteor are being integrated into Ukraine's capability so clearly it's a case of the right thing at the right time.

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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:48
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
I think Uncle Joe's NKVD were the progenitors of that particular idea.

They haven't gone away you know....
Either that or they've been reading Sven Hassel's novels....
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Old 9th Jan 2023, 16:51
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Angry

Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
I could not agree more...however...

The current situation in which weapons and equipment are drip fed to the Ukrainians is a deliberate part of a larger plan. It does not suit the US or NATO for Russia to be overwhelmed and defeated in the short term. The Western allies would much rather that this conflict is drawn out for as long as possible, so that the Russian Military is continually degraded and morale falls ever lower. If Russia faced certain defeat 'tomorrow' and decided to leave Ukraine, they would be doing so with a sizeable military force still intact - the West does not want this.

The current situation, where Russia is ground down, expends weapons and men, and Ukraine is given 'just enough to not lose' is not an accident, it is very much by design.

Simple question... were you still wearing your tinfoil headwear when you came up with this load of rubbish ??? If not .. go put it back on .....
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