Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Iran are training to use their drones against shipping, one hopes it isn’t a sign of future usage in the Black Sea area.
Russkies stated they had hit an old school with 600 ukrainian killed, but the building is still there. There were two craters nearby so the russkies missed it. I doubt there were soldiers either.
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that is fake news. there are already war journalists on site checking it and no such thing happened.
Russkies stated they had hit an old school with 600 ukrainian killed, but the building is still there. There were two craters nearby so the russkies missed it. I doubt there were soldiers either.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1612100537838891017
Russkies stated they had hit an old school with 600 ukrainian killed, but the building is still there. There were two craters nearby so the russkies missed it. I doubt there were soldiers either.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1612100537838891017
Besides which I very much doubt that the UA are as stupid as the Russians at housing hundreds of troops in one building. Pure propaganda for domestic consumption purposes only.
ctatik:
Russia has reached a stationary point, it can maintain its position by throwing cannon fodder in mass, Chinese korean War tactics, and wearing out their artillery systems faster than replacement possibility.
All Russia (i.e. the Putin coterie) has is to gamble on is the population balance of front line fighters favouring them sufficiently to do something that forces Ukraine to the negotiating table. Bets?
Russia has reached a stationary point, it can maintain its position by throwing cannon fodder in mass, Chinese korean War tactics, and wearing out their artillery systems faster than replacement possibility.
All Russia (i.e. the Putin coterie) has is to gamble on is the population balance of front line fighters favouring them sufficiently to do something that forces Ukraine to the negotiating table. Bets?
Putin can’t lose and Ukraine is too outnumbered to win so there will have to be a negotiated end, IMO that will be a return to pre-invasion borders driven by a Western ultimatum to Ukraine. The big question will be Western security guarantees. The only way for a lasting peace is NATO troops permanently in the Ukraine with an Article 5 like remit from NATO.
The other possibility is something out left field like a rogue Russian commander killing NATO troops in
Poland, shooting down a US transport, etc etc. At that point things will get very interesting indeed….
Putin losing would quite likely mean he would be assassinated and having assured there are no viable alternatives, Russia would likely face an internal power struggle with huge and unpredictable outcomes. I think you will see tactical nuclear weapons used rather than Putin admitting defeat.
Putin can’t lose and Ukraine is too outnumbered to win so there will have to be a negotiated end, IMO that will be a return to pre-invasion borders driven by a Western ultimatum to Ukraine. The big question will be Western security guarantees. The only way for a lasting peace is NATO troops permanently in the Ukraine with an Article 5 like remit from NATO.
The other possibility is something out left field like a rogue Russian commander killing NATO troops in
Poland, shooting down a US transport, etc etc. At that point things will get very interesting indeed….
Putin can’t lose and Ukraine is too outnumbered to win so there will have to be a negotiated end, IMO that will be a return to pre-invasion borders driven by a Western ultimatum to Ukraine. The big question will be Western security guarantees. The only way for a lasting peace is NATO troops permanently in the Ukraine with an Article 5 like remit from NATO.
The other possibility is something out left field like a rogue Russian commander killing NATO troops in
Poland, shooting down a US transport, etc etc. At that point things will get very interesting indeed….
I believe that the US and Europe are unwilling to risk the fallout of a decisive loss by Putin. They have the power to force a negotiated settlement and I believe that is what will be the end state.
The West had the opportunity to stop this mess when Putin invaded Crimea. By letting him get away with it they set up the current situation. However that won’t change the self interest calculation and Ukraine winning is not in the cards.
I'll answer this one: When Russia runs out of hardware and/or human fodder. As much as nobody wants to see any further loss of life, this war went past the point of a negotiated settlement several months ago.
Last edited by Confusious; 8th Jan 2023 at 20:50.
There's a long and bloody fight.
He eventually gets his money back but the Police aren't called.
Who's "won"?
Who's "lost"?
You're just back at the pre-robbery status quo with a lot of bruises to nurse.
If the poor guy you mugged only got $30 back then he'd have lost. Badly.
If he carried on beating you after getting it all back, and then took your wallet in payment for the damage (a perfectly reasonable action) you might feel you'd lost - but the onlookers wouldn't.
Don't feel too sorrry for Putain, there is only one fair and equitable occasion for peace to break out; when all of Ukraine's territory including Crimea is back in Ukranian control.
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The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Ukraine’s only option to move the front line increasingly is frontal attacks on prepared defensive lines. This is a reversion to WW1 tactics and are a direct result of the constraints the West has put on Ukraine. Obvious military lines of operation like interdiction of supply lines inside Russia have been denied to Ukraine as a result of perceived danger to Western interests, even though they dramatically affect the ability of Ukraine to prosecute the war.
It gives me no pleasure to advance this argument but I have yet to see a realistic counter narrative that will result in Ukraine pushing Russia out of Crimea and Donbas.
The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Sadly those left to live in Russia are condemned to rinse and repeat the mistakes of the last 100 years - believing leaders who have little thought for the populace and only focus on their own power and enrichment.
If you look at the ISW maps of the eastern part of Ukraine there is still a lot of landmass to liberate and that is not taking Crimea into account. BPE's assessment might not be palatable but unless NATO wants to get 100% involved then the status quo will be the result. Putin with his ideas of a Greater Russia will not withdraw and even if agreeing to a long term ceasefire will just be marking time before trying again. Volodymyr Zelensky is awesome but without the NATO support his military cannot reclaim the landmass that is still held by the Russians. The main difference between now and 1945 is that the West (hopefully) is under no illusions that they can enter good faith negotiations with the Russians for an equitable solution.
The current situation has fundamentally changed. Ukraine is on the offensive and Russia is on the defensive. A defensive position is always easier to maintain over success in offensive operations and favours the Russian strategy of using human cannon fodder to become a physical obstacle to Ukrainian offensive operations. The simple fact is that Russia has a lot of cannon fodder it can call up. A general mobilization could easily produce a million men. Yes they will be poorly equipped and even worse led, but that is a lot of people to kill. As the saying goes quantity has a quality of its own.
The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Ukraine’s only option to move the front line increasingly is frontal attacks on prepared defensive lines. This is a reversion to WW1 tactics and are a direct result of the constraints the West has put on Ukraine. Obvious military lines of operation like interdiction of supply lines inside Russia have been denied to Ukraine as a result of perceived danger to Western interests, even though they dramatically affect the ability of Ukraine to prosecute the war.
It gives me no pleasure to advance this argument but I have yet to see a realistic counter narrative that will result in Ukraine pushing Russia out of Crimea and Donbas.
The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Ukraine’s only option to move the front line increasingly is frontal attacks on prepared defensive lines. This is a reversion to WW1 tactics and are a direct result of the constraints the West has put on Ukraine. Obvious military lines of operation like interdiction of supply lines inside Russia have been denied to Ukraine as a result of perceived danger to Western interests, even though they dramatically affect the ability of Ukraine to prosecute the war.
It gives me no pleasure to advance this argument but I have yet to see a realistic counter narrative that will result in Ukraine pushing Russia out of Crimea and Donbas.
As for your mention of Putin being assassinated, quite frankly who cares? After he expires the situation could get even worse when the next disillusioned dictator takes the helm, but the fight will go on until they run out of everything and the Russian economy falls completely on its knees.
Throwing another million or so men into a strengthening battlefield will I agree stall the inevitable, but Russia will not capture Ukraine with untrained victims of mobilization. Poor kit (if any), no leadership, no strategy and a lack of basic military skills will never stand up against Ukraine with the West feeding the necessary kit and training to use it effectively.
Your concern about a war loss pushing Russia into a no option nuclear attack is a concern I have always shared. But the button pushers will have no doubt that the barrage coming straight back at them would be rapid and of greater magnitude. It's a risk, but has always been there and to date an impeccably well handled situation of avoiding WW3.
The bottom line is Putin is in the position to indefinitely freeze the front lines at the pre-invasion borders.
Ukraine’s only option to move the front line increasingly is frontal attacks on prepared defensive lines. This is a reversion to WW1 tactics and are a direct result of the constraints the West has put on Ukraine. Obvious military lines of operation like interdiction of supply lines inside Russia have been denied to Ukraine as a result of perceived danger to Western interests, even though they dramatically affect the ability of Ukraine to prosecute the war.
It gives me no pleasure to advance this argument but I have yet to see a realistic counter narrative that will result in Ukraine pushing Russia out of Crimea and Donbas.
. I think it is a toss-up to assume that in such a situation, Putin automatically gets what Putin wants. I have no idea how many people in the chain from Putin to final button-pusher, but certainly some will be thinking that the last desperate throw of a doomed, dying dictator isn't necessarily in their best interests.