Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Early on in the chat, the comment that a lot are coming home in Zinc is referring to the coffins the Russians use to transport bodies, I remember a post from Belogrod of locals complaining about dumped zinc Coffins turning up in the garbage.
see
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1586674911287844864
see
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1586674911287844864
I would imagine this is true across many utilities and industries….
People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C because essential utility workers have been mobilised – even after the supposed end of mobilisation – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...861106176.html
There have been 17 cases of embassies receiving either letter bombs, false bomb letters or letters containing animals parts, like the eyes of cows and pigs, according to Kuleba.“This campaign is aimed at sowing fear,” Kuleba told CNN in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Friday.
When asked who he thought was behind the letters, Kuleba told CNN, “I feel tempted to say, to name Russia straight away, because first of all you have to answer the question, 'who benefits?'"
“Maybe this terror response is the Russian answer to the diplomatic horror that we created for Russia on the international arena, and this is how they try to fight back while they are losing the real diplomatic battles one after another,” he added.
When asked who he thought was behind the letters, Kuleba told CNN, “I feel tempted to say, to name Russia straight away, because first of all you have to answer the question, 'who benefits?'"
“Maybe this terror response is the Russian answer to the diplomatic horror that we created for Russia on the international arena, and this is how they try to fight back while they are losing the real diplomatic battles one after another,” he added.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...861106176.html
In the meantime, taking the lead from Wagner, perhaps this would resolve their logistics problem with 200's, and their foreign embassy deliveries of Russian delicacies.
Innovative device, already employed in Russian body armour and helmets for Mobiks and general conscripts. (not suitable for former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin apparently)
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Belarus 🧵 We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine.
Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).
After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.
Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.
Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.
The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.
We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.
However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.
On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.
Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).
Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.
We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.
Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).
After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.
Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.
Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.
The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.
We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.
However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.
On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.
Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).
Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.
We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.
Belarus 🧵 We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine.
Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).
After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.
Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.
Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.
The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.
We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.
However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.
On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.
Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).
Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.
We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.
Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).
After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.
Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.
Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.
The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.
We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.
However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.
On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.
Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).
Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.
We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.
not only that but surely if Russia is allowed to bring a neighbour to the game, Ukraine could also bring a neighbour in.
Surely Ukraine is playing this very, very careful when it comes to taking to war to either Russia or Belarus. One stand out feature of this war has been the way Ukraine has done a pretty outstanding PR job, the other is that much of that good PR hinges on the evidence presented that it is wholly Russia that is the aggressor. They risk damaging that by overtly attacking Russian, or Belarusian, territory. In turn, that could result in a reduction of military aid to Ukraine, perhaps, as Ukraine might be viewed as a NATO proxy by some states.
There is some evidence that there are partisans within Russia, and, perhaps, Belarus, that are working on the side of Ukraine, either directly or indirectly because they have an interest in overthrowing Putin's regime. Until now there has been plausible deniability between the mysterious fires and explosions within Russia and the actions of Ukrainian forces. It has to be in Ukraine's best interests, in terms of maintaining wide international support, to stick to that tactic, rather than risk a long-range overt attack into either Russian or Belarusian territory.
There is some evidence that there are partisans within Russia, and, perhaps, Belarus, that are working on the side of Ukraine, either directly or indirectly because they have an interest in overthrowing Putin's regime. Until now there has been plausible deniability between the mysterious fires and explosions within Russia and the actions of Ukrainian forces. It has to be in Ukraine's best interests, in terms of maintaining wide international support, to stick to that tactic, rather than risk a long-range overt attack into either Russian or Belarusian territory.
We see a version or a rehearsal for WW III ................... just not like the books used to say.
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Discarded cigarettes have reached St Petersburg
Rehearsal for WW III? Let's be serious, Putin will be long gone before such an outcome. From some of your comments I sometimes think that you actually wish for WW III langleybaston.
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We see a version or a rehearsal for WW III ................... just not like the books used to say.
Some states are going to view the present support to Ukraine as wholly justifiable on humanitarian grounds, as just action to take when supporting a country from an aggressor. Others may view it as the start of a proxy war by a major bloc or alliance. The latter view works both ways, many countries that have borders with Russia may well see Russian aggression as the greater threat than having assistance to Ukraine misconstrued as proxy warfare.
I very much doubt this is heading for WWIII. Looking back at the triggers for WWI, for example, the war broke out fairly quickly after the trigger event, the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand in June 1914. On the other hand we've had major conflicts since 1945, some lasting years (Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf wars, Afghanistan etc) that have really been proxy wars, either against the political ideology of communism or fundamentalist religion, or for ensuring that a tyrannical government wasn't able to grossly interfere with global oil and gas supplies.
Putin has some conflicting issues that are now compounding. His acolytes, his cook who is sending out his recipe taster packs to sundry governments, and the last man standing in Chechnya, are in an increasing conflict with the Russian army, and are showing colours of taking on Putin directly. Now Vlad may not be in the best of nick at present, but those seem to be ill considered positions for the underwriters of Prigozin and Kadyrov, both who have nothing in the way of popular support from the military or the public of the
Winter is not favourable to Russia, unless they have a functional MSR, and there is scant evidence of that being the case. The losses even during reduced mobility will be severe, and that increases Count Vlads problems in all areas other than the airforce and navy, who are sitting around the heaters at base more than being effective in the field.
Russia's economy and infrastructure are hardly in much better condition than Ukraine, and that is directly related to Vlad's holiday plans. Overall, Russia has managed to remove about 1 Million of it's youngsters, by becoming numbers like 200, 300's and by vacating the pleasure of life under Vlad to be somewhere else. Vlad is planning to traumatise another couple of million of the same generations, and the supply of the next generations of Russian Federation citizens seems problematic to being able to sustain any population level.
All in all, Vlad's latest opinion that he won't negotiate unless the theft of Ukrainian land by Russia is accepted seems to be a bit muddled in reasoning. Vlad doesn't have to worry about Ukraine as the greatest risk any more, even though they never were a risk; the greatest risk to the federation of Russia is Vlads sqandering of it's future by removing a critical generation of citizens, flushing the economy down the toilet, making his former clients of energy reconsider any reliance on Russia for anything, facilitating Prigozin and Kadyrov as possible contenders in the toss the tsar from the window games, causing conditions conducive to mutiny within the military, and depleting the arms of the state to the point that the vassal states of the federation have to be wondering why they look to Vlad as their saviour, he's not even called Brian.
Next few months will be interesting to see unfold, Ukraine has managed their responses deftly, Vlad has been deaf to reason and blind in his aspirations.
So much death and destruction, pain loss already in this invasion. the one hope from it still going on (and the time since it started) is that with any hope, if putin does try to start ww3.
He'l hopefully be stopped, buy Someone. or many people. any even Russian general/s with sense should have ,god willing, broken the wires to his button after DD+1 or as soon as the plans were being drawn up.
hope for the best, plan for the worst. dont rattle
He'l hopefully be stopped, buy Someone. or many people. any even Russian general/s with sense should have ,god willing, broken the wires to his button after DD+1 or as soon as the plans were being drawn up.
hope for the best, plan for the worst. dont rattle
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Last edited by NutLoose; 4th Dec 2022 at 14:38.
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This throws the missile attacks into context. This is from Kharkiv.
I'm sorry to upset you but, fascinating as it is, history is just that: history. Contrary to what you may think, it respectfully makes you no wiser than than the rest of us as to what may happen in the future. especially with regard to this conflict.
“Learn from the mistakes of others. You won’t live long enough to make them all yourself!”
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Sanctions are NOT working, Russia has NO shortages, we have all heard it from them…
So why are they printing food stamps? Rationing will go down like a lead balloon in Russia.
So why are they printing food stamps? Rationing will go down like a lead balloon in Russia.
