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That seems a bit muddled. How could a return to pre-invasion borders, having failed to achieve any of his stated goals and lost over 100,000 men and billions of dollars worth of equipment be seen as anything but a defeat for Russia?
If the deal to end Russian aggression means a recognition of Crimea and the pre-invasion Donbas borders, then Putin can shape the narrative as a win. Obviously this is terrible for Ukraine and arguably the Western alliance, but in diplomacy “what should be” vs “what actually happens” are usually unrelated.
I believe that the US and Europe are unwilling to risk the fallout of a decisive loss by Putin. They have the power to force a negotiated settlement and I believe that is what will be the end state.
The West had the opportunity to stop this mess when Putin invaded Crimea. By letting him get away with it they set up the current situation. However that won’t change the self interest calculation and Ukraine winning is not in the cards.