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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd Nov 2022, 16:17
  #11241 (permalink)  
 
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There are a few things about blowing the dam.
  • The HEPP there distributes its electricity primarily to the occupied regions of ZP and Kherson oblasts. So they do themselves no favours by removing the facility - they need it more than the ukranians right now.
  • The flood plain in the event of failure would mainly be the south (or left) bank , again occupied.
  • There is as well the issue of cooling water for the NPP at Energodar and what might happen there, and of course the winds are mainly westerly, again towards russian territory.
The russians can easily remove the roadway above the gates and eliminate it as a crossing point. No need for them to risk all the bad consequences above along with a huge international backlash.

I think the dam is safe unless the russians are really stupid. . Antonovski bridge though I am sure they drop in an instant when they withdraw, even that brings them huge problems - an end to any hope of ever taking Odesa ( I know but I am sure it is still in their heads). Plus it allows UAF to redeploy a lot of very good forces\resources from Kherson to ZP oblast.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 18:11
  #11242 (permalink)  
 
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Unfortunately, Usertim, from everything we are seeing at the moment it appears that the Russians and their leaders are, in fact and deed, really stupid.
Opening this thread every morning is preceded by the thought: “I wonder what the blundering morons have done now?”
To think we once feared these twits for their military prowess and weapons tech. Now we fear their inability to extricate themselves from this mess will lead to demented actions.
They pose a “Clear and Present Danger” to the planet.

At the commencement of hostilities I reread Tom Clancy’s “Red Storm Rising” the parallels are interesting, especially the mindsets of the Russian “leadership”.

Originally Posted by Usertim
There are a few things about blowing the dam.
  • The HEPP there distributes its electricity primarily to the occupied regions of ZP and Kherson oblasts. So they do themselves no favours by removing the facility - they need it more than the ukranians right now.
  • The flood plain in the event of failure would mainly be the south (or left) bank , again occupied.
  • There is as well the issue of cooling water for the NPP at Energodar and what might happen there, and of course the winds are mainly westerly, again towards russian territory.
The russians can easily remove the roadway above the gates and eliminate it as a crossing point. No need for them to risk all the bad consequences above along with a huge international backlash.

I think the dam is safe unless the russians are really stupid. . Antonovski bridge though I am sure they drop in an instant when they withdraw, even that brings them huge problems - an end to any hope of ever taking Odesa ( I know but I am sure it is still in their heads). Plus it allows UAF to redeploy a lot of very good forces\resources from Kherson to ZP oblast.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 18:18
  #11243 (permalink)  
 
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I do recall my time at MoD in War Plans & Policy, and the calculations/estimates we had been working from to determine "The Threat". When the USSR collapsed, we discovered the Russian Bear had bad teeth and broken claws. It was ever thus. Did anyone think they had got better, once the Oligarchs got their hands on the fiscal levers of the State and Defence funding? It had been a "Paper Bear" for decades.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 18:46
  #11244 (permalink)  
 
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GRAPHIC

Your (Russian) tank is hit by an ATGM and two of the three crew bail out as the tank starts to catch fire. One of the two crew realises the driver is trapped and climbs back into the smoking turret to rotate it out of the way, at significant risk to himself. As he climbs back off, and the driver is nearly clear of the tank, it's hit by a second Stugna ATGM. Sometimes it's just a few seconds between life and death.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 19:27
  #11245 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
GRAPHIC

Your (Russian) tank is hit by an ATGM and two of the three crew bail out as the tank starts to catch fire. One of the two crew realises the driver is trapped and climbs back into the smoking turret to rotate it out of the way, at significant risk to himself. As he climbs back off, and the driver is nearly clear of the tank, it's hit by a second Stugna ATGM. Sometimes it's just a few seconds between life and death.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
If the crew had chosen to surrender I'm sure the driver could have taken his time getting out.

Fair play to his colleague who climbed back into a burning vehicle to shift the turret though.

It's difficult to feel sympathy for members of an occupying force though.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 19:45
  #11246 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by albatross
Unfortunately, Usertim, from everything we are seeing at the moment it appears that the Russians and their leaders are, in fact and deed, really stupid. Opening this thread every morning is preceded by the thought: “I wonder what the blundering morons have done now?”
To think we once feared these twits for their military prowess and weapons tech. Now we fear their inability to extricate themselves from this mess will lead to demented actions. They pose a “Clear and Present Danger” to the planet. At the commencement of hostilities I reread Tom Clancy’s “Red Storm Rising” the parallels are interesting, especially the mindsets of the Russian “leadership”.
Fiction apart, do any students of the USSR on the forum think that the Politburo would have allowed a Soviet President to pursue Putin's actions? I'm not suggesting that their instincts would be any less brutal (Hungary, Czechoslovakia) but their sense of self-preservation may have led them to call a halt before things became this dangerous.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 20:50
  #11247 (permalink)  
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More news from Kherson, 🇷🇺 forces seem to have released all prisoners from captivity. And have left the police HQ and FSB offices in the city.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 23:42
  #11248 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like Ukrainians smell a rat regarding the evacuation of Kherson

From the DT website:

Russian troops were seen evacuating Kherson as rumours swirled that Moscow was abandoning the key southern city. Eyewitnesses told The Telegraph that they witnessed Moscow’s forces dismantling military posts, leaving the city and crossing into the eastern bank of the Dnipro River towards Crimea. “There are much fewer occupiers in the city. The roadblocks are being removed and flags were taken,” said a city local, who wished to remain anonymous.

On Thursday, a Russian-installed official in the region said that Moscow’s armed forces were expected to quit the city.
“Most likely our units, our soldiers, will leave for the left [eastern] bank,” said Kirill Stremousov, the deputy civilian administrator of the Kherson region.
Images have also been circulating showing flags being removed from the main administrative building in Kherson city, with the building left apparently empty.
However, Ukraine said that pictures could be Russian disinformation, part of a possible wider feint by the Kremlin to lay a trap for Kyiv’s forces in the battle for Kherson.


Natalya Humenyuk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern military command, said: “This could be a manifestation of a particular provocation, in order to create the impression that the settlements are abandoned, that it is safe to enter them, while they are preparing for street battles.
“We can see that Russian troops are still staying in Kherson, but they now wear civilian clothes. They’re moving to other towns, other than the regional capital, into the houses of the residents who had fled.
“It is necessary to understand that a hybrid war involves such information leaks; attacks that can be calculated to weaken the troops.”
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 00:25
  #11249 (permalink)  
 
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Is there any recent information as to the situation at the Nuclear Power Plant? As I recall the last I read was:
1) There were issues with power supply and emergency generator fuel supplies for circulating cooling water in the shut down cores and storage facilities.
2) There were still IAEA inspectors at the plant.
3) Russkies were messing around with the fuel rod storage facilities.
4) Russkies had left the plant.
5) If the dam is breached there may be water supply issues at the plant.
6) There were claims explosives had be planted by the Russians in the plant.
Have there been any updates on the status of the plant?
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 00:36
  #11250 (permalink)  
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Kherson; It it a trap?

The recent activity of the RU forces has a number of oddities that raise questions.

Ukraine has certainly reduced some of the forces in Kherson. Russia has evacuated some forces as well. What is left apparently now is a bunch of "civilians" and they are now in an area that has an exclusion zone for reasons only known to Russia. If Russia suddenly grew a conscience, and wanted to spare the newly Russified civilians from being on the receiving end of Ukrainian fire, then that may explain the exclusion zone on the left bank of the Dnipro. Does anyone think that any action by the Russians in the last 9 months has shown they have any likelihood of growing a conscience?

Would think that it would be wise to tread carefully into Kherson, and to consider all residents as unknown until their identity is proven. That would slow down the process of opening up the city, but there be dragons in assuming that the Russians have not left surprises.

It is not the Russian way to leave anything other than scorched earth in their wake.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 00:57
  #11251 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
GRAPHIC

Your (Russian) tank is hit by an ATGM and two of the three crew bail out as the tank starts to catch fire. One of the two crew realises the driver is trapped and climbs back into the smoking turret to rotate it out of the way, at significant risk to himself. As he climbs back off, and the driver is nearly clear of the tank, it's hit by a second Stugna ATGM. Sometimes it's just a few seconds between life and death.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
There is another video of the second hit from firing position. The driver literally jumped out into the missile coming at him. Talk about unlucky. heroic of the guy to do that tho, i dont like seeing it, its chaos of war. so many lines have been crossed. still feel for the "maybe conscript" just trying to survive.
the TRophy systems for the small chally 3 fleet can be honed for the best protection to crew. In the modern threat era that has been made ever so clear.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 01:31
  #11252 (permalink)  
 
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Excavation in progress...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...antitank_mine/
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 02:16
  #11253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BlankBox
Thought at first you'd meant evacuation, but excavation certainly works.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 03:19
  #11254 (permalink)  
 
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Putins mafia war Crime Scene: Bucha

Some quite remarkable cctv footage included in this.
The Associated Press, frontlinepbs and SITU Research reviewed hundreds of hours of CCTV footage, intercepts of Russian phone calls and built a 3D model to show what happened in Bucha and identify who was responsible. (Nov. 3)
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 04:53
  #11255 (permalink)  
 
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Russian military brass may be creating a new DMZ out of the Kherson area, to be crossed in the longer term in their future push to join together Odesa and Transnistria.

West of the river is a large body of sacrificial do-or-die green men and armo(u)r which cannot be pulled back for lack of bridges. Maybe they speak the lingo and even have Ukrainian uniforms available? They can all be flattened together of course at any moment under rolling waves of Russian artillery. Survivors of either side will be added baggage for the generosity of Ukraine.

Having removed the civilian population, the 30-km-wide strip can be either flooded, dirty-bombed, nuked, or showered with Iranian missiles and DPRK artillery shells. Keeping their options open?
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 05:48
  #11256 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Is there any recent information as to the situation at the Nuclear Power Plant? As I recall the last I read was:
1) There were issues with power supply and emergency generator fuel supplies for circulating cooling water in the shut down cores and storage facilities.
2) There were still IAEA inspectors at the plant.
3) Russkies were messing around with the fuel rod storage facilities.
4) Russkies had left the plant.
5) If the dam is breached there may be water supply issues at the plant.
6) There were claims explosives had be planted by the Russians in the plant.
Have there been any updates on the status of the plant?
Not much change - I keep an eye on it in my energy stuff. The Russians are trying to force the Ukraine staff to go over to Russian contracts. They periodically kidnap/etc the senior Ukraine staff. Russian staff are now on site and areas of the site are off limits to Ukraine staff. There is nuclear material in the off-limit areas and the Ukraine staff are extremely concerned about what the Russians are doing in those areas. The diesel stores are not yet exhausted. The HV feeds INTO the ZPPN are reduced to one that gets periodically shelled (by the Russians) and is v intermittent. Thermal management is a great concern and they are considering whether to bring another reactor up one level to manage this but I don't know enough of the configuration of the site to understand how that would work. Apparently it is a Russian idea .... The IAEA continues to work to try to get a ceasefire/no-fire zone but Russians appear not to be co-operating. Russians have military forces all over the site.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 07:03
  #11257 (permalink)  
 
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A KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling plane drew a “sky penis” in the vicinity of Syria’s Tartus — the Kremlin’s naval facility in the Mediterranean — according to a POLITICO analysis of Flightradar24 data, as first reported by La Repubblica.


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Old 4th Nov 2022, 09:11
  #11258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Russian military brass may be creating a new DMZ out of the Kherson area, to be crossed in the longer term in their future push to join together Odesa and Transnistria.

West of the river is a large body of sacrificial do-or-die green men and armo(u)r which cannot be pulled back for lack of bridges. Maybe they speak the lingo and even have Ukrainian uniforms available? They can all be flattened together of course at any moment under rolling waves of Russian artillery. Survivors of either side will be added baggage for the generosity of Ukraine.

Having removed the civilian population, the 30-km-wide strip can be either flooded, dirty-bombed, nuked, or showered with Iranian missiles and DPRK artillery shells. Keeping their options open?
My take for UKR ... only a civvy opinion.
Don't allow Kherson to become a Verdun, Passchendaele or even a Falaise.
Orcs have made Kherson a mini Torres Vedras.
Keep showing enough interest to pin the main Orc body on the East bank, and find an area suitable for an Ardennes winter frightener.
i trust Western help re power supply is happening or planned.
Putin has pressure at home and needs results ... time is on Ukr side so long as NATO retains cojones.


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Old 4th Nov 2022, 09:28
  #11259 (permalink)  
 
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time is on Ukr side so long as NATO retains cojones
But not for the poor buggers with no power, limited food and drinking water. If NATO had cojones it would finish this now with a series of strikes on the remaining Russian forces in Ukraine.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 10:02
  #11260 (permalink)  
 
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Hear hear

Originally Posted by [email protected]
But not for the poor buggers with no power, limited food and drinking water. If NATO had cojones it would finish this now with a series of strikes on the remaining Russian forces in Ukraine.
I will second that
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