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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 5th Jan 2023, 15:58
  #13161 (permalink)  
 
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The Ukrainians stated publicly that they would not observe the Orthodox Christmas and instead revert to normal Western Christmas dates - didn't notice Russia ceasing shelling during that period..

If Putin wants his troops to celebrate Christmas then get them out of Ukraine
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 16:00
  #13162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Professor Plum
It actually increases the intelligence of Russian vehicles.

We all know the average russian soldier is as thick as two short planks. Therefore strapping a number of short planks to a vehicle actually increases the intelligence of that vehicle, therefore mitigating to some extent against the relative lack of intelligence of the Russian Soldiers.

​​​​​​​Apparently.
I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised if they actually nailed them on through the tank.
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 16:19
  #13163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
The Ukrainians stated publicly that they would not observe the Orthodox Christmas and instead revert to normal Western Christmas dates - didn't notice Russia ceasing shelling during that period..

If Putin wants his troops to celebrate Christmas then get them out of Ukraine
True, but he's already ordered the truce. When Ukraine strikes he'll either retract or moan to the world about Ukraine being terrorists. Interesting forty eight hours ahead, he's weakening.
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 16:48
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
What has all of this to do with Ukraine? Just asking.
I think it is very relevant with respect to the original premise, that Russian air defence seemed able to be spoofed. The advent of small drones, with a low RCS, and plastic props that most probably don't give much, if any, return, makes the possibility of spoofing air defence systems into wasting materiel a useful tactic. I'm 100% sure the Ukrainian forces know far more about this, as they have a massive amount of knowledge regarding the capabilities, and capability gaps within, Russian AD.

The zero Doppler issue, even with modern digital signal processing, still exists - it has to, as it's a physical property. Any target that has near-zero relative motion to any radar is not going to have a detectable Doppler component in the raw signal, and processing, no matter how smart, can only work with the raw data the antenna(s) can collect.

There are going to be one hell of a lot of extremely valuable lessons learned from this war. I bet the conventional wisdom as to which tactics are most likely to be successful is being re-written every day this war goes on. Not least because the ingenuity of the Ukrainian forces, and especially their technical support, has highlighted how modified COTS equipment can be a quick and effective way to counter an enemy that has overwhelming numbers (albeit made up of a lot of f**kwits).
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 17:29
  #13165 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure if this has been posted. Some - to me anyway - video footage I hadn't seen before.

Zelenski's New Year greetings.

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Old 5th Jan 2023, 17:45
  #13166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Confusious
True, but he's already ordered the truce. When Ukraine strikes he'll either retract or moan to the world about Ukraine being terrorists. Interesting forty eight hours ahead, he's weakening.
Correct, Putin didn’t honour Ukraines Christmas, so WTF should Ukraine…

They could always organise a footy match, and round up the Russians after it.
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 19:28
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Originally Posted by BEagle
When West Raynham was a Bloodhound site, we were tasked with simulated attacks in our mighty tin triangle. Running towards it at low level and 300KIAS, as soon as we heard a locked indication on the RWR we would break at 60° AoB, then reverse to beam the signal until it broke doppler lock. Then another 60° AoB turn back onto the bomb steer to run in again and repeat as necessary until we reached the minimum engagement range before simulated lay down weapon release. That took a fair bit of coordination; one pilot hauling it around, the other calling estimated AoB values to achieve a constant radius arc around the target, the AEO calling RWR indications with pilots listening to RWR audio, nav radar keeping the target in sight and the nav plotter confirming position. We succeeded a couple of times, but it was quite fatiguing on both the aeroplane and crew. Later attempts were thwarted after the Bloodhound radars were upgraded and zero doppler attacks no longer worked as well. Great fun though!

Lyneham radar would often get confused by GWR trains - but on one occasion the low level radar contact 'in your vicinty' was indeed low level! A tractor with crop spraying booms looking to all intents and purposes on radar like a manoeuvring aircraft.
At that time West Raynham had the T87 Radar with the RAFG Clutch airfields using the T86. I was an EC with 25 Sqn on the T86 for 5 years, then became the 85 Sqn Trg Off at West Raynham for 2 years just before Bloodhound was retired. I can assure you that although the T86 had slightly lower range capability than the T87, it ,(for an experienced Engagement Controller) was the far more capable pulse doppler radar. An aircraft with large engines with a brief zero doppler return posed no problem in keeping acquisition as the engines still gave the effect of noise jamming in our "A" scopes. Just as an example, B52's, U2's,F4's and Harriers were the noisiest A/C in the 1980's. A wide band noise jamming B52 would have been killed easily as would a n F4 Wild Weasel in RAFG. MOD spent several million pounds from 1986 in "upgrading" the Launch Control Posts from analogue display radar depictions to digital multi colour displays which added nothing to the operators abilities to use the system. That decision to "upgrade" was negligent as the MOD knew that it was taking Bloodhound out of service in 1991 due to the exorbitant cost of replacing all of the solid propellant boost motors that were life expired.

However, the retirement was probably sensible. I, with EWOSE provided RCS data made a simulator tape which proved that Bloodhound could not possibly acquire an air launched AS4 ARM due to it's low RCS. With modern air launched missiles from 1500 kms plus range the system was no longer fit for purpose... And for Beagle - the "Tin Triangle" gave an extremely noisy radar footprint, and as he rightly said, software updates were made over time to Bloodhound so that when the radar lost lock due to Zero Doppler the computer predicted where a doppler return would commence again and moved the radar dish accordingly - but an experienced EC could also adjust the search position of the dish to acquire the A/C.

Last edited by SAMXXV; 5th Jan 2023 at 20:11.
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 20:17
  #13168 (permalink)  
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“UK might send tanks to Ukraine in its next military aid package.”
​​​​​​​
UK Foreign Secretary
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 20:36
  #13169 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with the assessment.
​​​​​​​
The Kyiv Independent

"He was ready to bomb hospitals and nurseries, and churches on the 25th (of December) and New Year's. I mean, I think he is trying to find some oxygen," Biden told reporters.
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 21:05
  #13170 (permalink)  
 
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It’s starting

(((Tendar)))
According Reuters the USA will announce tomorrow the delivery of 50 M2 Bradley. A good start and I'm almost certain that it won't stay there.

It is official: Germany sends Marder and even one Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.

"SPD is not ruling out to deliver the Leopard 2 MBT."

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Old 5th Jan 2023, 22:17
  #13171 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for the explanation, SAMXXV! Our attacks against West Raynham were in 1978 or 1979 if memory serves.

The SW updates meant that when I tried the same thing a few years later in the F-4 against the Wattisham site, it didn't work!
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 22:27
  #13172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
“UK might send tanks to Ukraine in its next military aid package.”
​​​​​​​
UK Foreign Secretary
Honestly scrap the a challenger 3 project send challenger 2's to ukraine. Work a deal for the UK to use older abrams and either go new Euro or go new abrams / replacement

They wont do it but I am pretty sure UK could get older abrams as a good price that would in the end be saving money by not having to maintain a black sheep tank
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 23:11
  #13173 (permalink)  
 
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IIRC Challenger 3 is basically sticking the gun in it that was planned originally for challenger 2, but we changed our minds thus limiting the rounds we could use.

New version of the Leo 2 looks good
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Old 5th Jan 2023, 23:23
  #13174 (permalink)  
 
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The US Marine Corps should put on a grand surplus sale as it undergoes another political shift in its struggle to stave off becoming part of the US Army (one Man's opinion).

Notably it intends to shed ALL of its Abrams Tanks, cut Artillery Batterys from 21 to 5, cut F-35 Squadrons to Ten aircraft each and make other sundry cuts in manning and units.

It appears they continue to be a force looking for a unique mission set that will shield it from cuts decided by outside sources like Congress.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/re...ks-2030-189177
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Old 6th Jan 2023, 00:05
  #13175 (permalink)  
 
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That’s not very friendly of the Russians, odd there is no explosion though.

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Old 6th Jan 2023, 00:14
  #13176 (permalink)  
 
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Trench warfare mentality.

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Old 6th Jan 2023, 00:25
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This professed ceasefire offered by putin, could be he has his op booked for then. Could be a plot to attack kiev again. could be anything. one thing i would assume its not is a simple honest truce offered. I'd hope that they get there backs up the Ukrainians either way. Putin enjoyed ordering his terrorizing Christmas eve/ day/ new years eve attacks on the ukrainians, killing people (women and children) in there beds and taking out nearly all the heating and Power systems in the winter months & on the sacred dates.

Who knows with the minus -25'C winter decending on moscow this weekend, maybe a few Christmas surprises could disrupt putins plans.
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Old 6th Jan 2023, 00:37
  #13178 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
That’s not very friendly of the Russians, odd there is no explosion though.



https://twitter.com/1917CCCP2/status...50700716724225
Not only is there no explosion, there was no smoke coming from the chimney. Perhaps a training video, a demostration of ability?
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Old 6th Jan 2023, 01:33
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2023-01-05/


there were whispers and further signs of a second lunge at kiev. surely not. would be a bulge like result.
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Old 6th Jan 2023, 03:17
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Originally Posted by SASless
The US Marine Corps should put on a grand surplus sale as it undergoes another political shift in its struggle to stave off becoming part of the US Army (one Man's opinion).

Notably it intends to shed ALL of its Abrams Tanks, cut Artillery Batterys from 21 to 5, cut F-35 Squadrons to Ten aircraft each and make other sundry cuts in manning and units.

It appears they continue to be a force looking for a unique mission set that will shield it from cuts decided by outside sources like Congress.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/re...ks-2030-189177
One China obsessed General is driving these changes despite the protests of his recent contemporaries and those of us with no voices.
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