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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 26th Dec 2022, 17:13
  #12881 (permalink)  
 
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Nice news if true, but ....
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 17:30
  #12882 (permalink)  
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Oops, there goes another one….
​​​​​​​United Russia MP Pavel Antov has died in the Indian city of Rayagada after falling from a hotel #window. Previously, he was included in the #Forbes ranking of the richest Russians.
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 17:46
  #12883 (permalink)  
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Russian dependence, and excessive use, of non-precision artillery staring to hit home.

As to their manufacturers beindpg able to mass produce PGM shells, good luck with that…

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Old 26th Dec 2022, 18:11
  #12884 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russian dependence, and excessive use, of non-precision artillery staring to hit home.

As to their manufacturers being able to mass produce PGM shells, good luck with that…
Reminded me of this gem from “The Incomplete Book of Failures” (The Official Handbook of the Not-Terribly-Good Club ) a very amusing book by Stephen Pile ISBN 0-7737-1035-3

t
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 18:31
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_

There is a pretty sound argument for not attacking Russia within it's own territory, notwithstanding the powerful emotional incentive to hit Russia hard for what they are doing to Ukraine. It's far too easy for Russia to use attacks against Russia, deep inside Russia itself, to motivate more Russians to fight in this war, via their propaganda machine.
War with one arm tied behind your back doesn’t work. This mindset reminds me of the argument ref the cold war with China of appeasement.
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 19:25
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Originally Posted by West Coast
War with one arm tied behind your back doesn’t work. This mindset reminds me of the argument ref the cold war with China of appeasement.
You seem to ignore the diffence between sitting right next to a fire-ants nest while sratching around the perimeter with a stick and tossng a cherry-bomb into the middle of it.

Your call, pal!
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 20:07
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While we would all like to see Russia absolutely destroyed in Ukraine while having very little compassion for the Russian state, we have no need to broaden the war.

However for the last +20 years we have tried to appease Russia, China, Iran, Norkers et al, thinking that trade would bring them into the fold.

Perhaps the West should try something different. Make them fear stoking us.
The US has the ability to smack each of these nation all at the same time with still enough to spare.
Sitting back and watching the Chinese annex large parts of the South China Sea, The Iranians destabilising the ME, Norkers threatening S Korea and Japan, at what point do we say, enough? Or do we just become more insular and hope?
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 21:02
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
While we would all like to see Russia absolutely destroyed in Ukraine while having very little compassion for the Russian state, we have no need to broaden the war.

However for the last +20 years we have tried to appease Russia, China, Iran, Norkers et al, thinking that trade would bring them into the fold.

Perhaps the West should try something different. Make them fear stoking us.
The US has the ability to smack each of these nation all at the same time with still enough to spare.
Sitting back and watching the Chinese annex large parts of the South China Sea, The Iranians destabilising the ME, Norkers threatening S Korea and Japan, at what point do we say, enough? Or do we just become more insular and hope?
The USA does have quite a record in successfully intervening in the specific examples above...oh wait...
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 21:23
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Has there been a recent update on what's happening at the nuclear power plant? Is it still being used as a hostage?
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 21:36
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But, out of interest, what would you suggest NumptyAussie?
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 21:48
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Originally Posted by FUMR
But, out of interest, what would you suggest NumptyAussie?
First would be, not to do the same thing that ends in a inglorious retreat...
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:01
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Originally Posted by NumptyAussie
First would be, not to do the same thing that ends in a inglorious retreat...
That sounds about as well conceived as one of Putin's strategies.
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:07
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
You seem to ignore the diffence between sitting right on top of to a fire-ants nest while sratching around the perimeter with a stick and tossng a cherry-bomb into the middle of it.

Your call, pal!
This isn’t a border skirmish with Russia, it’s an existential threat to Ukraine, ergo you fight unbridled by fears that you may really “piss Putin off” if you bomb his territory.
I would hope that the Ukrainians have as close to an answer as they can if Kiev is taken or a nuke explodes in a populated city in Ukraine, like dirty bombs exploding all around Moscow shortly thereafter.
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:12
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Here's a readworthy analysis of the situation and Russias capability for a great spring offensive by someone who knows his business, major general P. Toveri, former director of the Finnish Defence Intelligence.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...391356416.html
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:17
  #12895 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
That sounds about as well conceived as one of Putin's strategies.
So you think the first thing to do would be the same thing that has resulted in so many retreats?
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:36
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Originally Posted by NumptyAussie
So you think the first thing to do would be the same thing that has resulted in so many retreats?
No, the first thing to do, would be to actually elaborate on your strategy ( as you were asked to do) instead of proving the truth of your forum name..
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Old 26th Dec 2022, 22:52
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
No, the first thing to do, would be to actually elaborate on your strategy ( as you were asked to do) instead of proving the truth of your forum name..
Oh the wit..
Read back blowgon, where did I say I had a strategy? I merely questioned the wisdom of the USA post war policy of intervention.
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Old 27th Dec 2022, 01:03
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Another Numpty here. I would go as far as to say the catastrophic failure of "Western" international policy in the early 21st century - seemingly focussed on chasing beardy lunatics in caves, and weakening our own freedoms and damaging our own credibility in the process - has played no small part in the resurgence of the genuinely threatening totalitarian regimes we face today. What to do about it now? It does indeed feel like the nuclear deterrent ties the hands. It's difficult to see how this can end up being settled once and for all without it becoming apocalyptic.

What future Russia will have is questionable. China is letting them test the West, reveal its strengths and find its weaknesses. Strong statements of military allegiance such as AUKUS are good, but don't go nearly far enough. Now is the time for far more overt strategic alliance building - with India, all of the rest of Asia and the population growth engines of sub-Saharan Africa. If you think the latter will not play a crucial role in our future, consider en extra couple of billion people in a world already struggling to cope with migratory flows of a few million here or there seen thus far.

We should ramp up foreign aid and investment and not be shy about it being strategic. China is way ahead of us here with belt and road, and has caught us napping - in many cases, like the old saying, we've sold them the rope to hang us with.

Things sometimes seem cosy and distant here in Oz. As a father of boys approaching fighting age I pray it continues that way.
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Old 27th Dec 2022, 01:33
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Originally Posted by HOVIS
I have never been in military service. Closest I got was as a cadet. Could I just ask, is this normal behaviour? Beating your own soldiers, who, I assume you are going to arm with lethal weapons. I mean, if someone was to do that to me, my response would be swift and accurate, as soon as I was given the tools to do so. What the hell!
Its normal behaviour in a few airlines...
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Old 27th Dec 2022, 02:08
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Originally Posted by fineline
Another Numpty here. I would go as far as to say the catastrophic failure of "Western" international policy in the early 21st century - seemingly focussed on chasing beardy lunatics in caves, and weakening our own freedoms and damaging our own credibility in the process - has played no small part in the resurgence of the genuinely threatening totalitarian regimes we face today. What to do about it now? It does indeed feel like the nuclear deterrent ties the hands. It's difficult to see how this can end up being settled once and for all without it becoming apocalyptic.

What future Russia will have is questionable. China is letting them test the West, reveal its strengths and find its weaknesses. Strong statements of military allegiance such as AUKUS are good, but don't go nearly far enough. Now is the time for far more overt strategic alliance building - with India, all of the rest of Asia and the population growth engines of sub-Saharan Africa. If you think the latter will not play a crucial role in our future, consider en extra couple of billion people in a world already struggling to cope with migratory flows of a few million here or there seen thus far.

We should ramp up foreign aid and investment and not be shy about it being strategic. China is way ahead of us here with belt and road, and has caught us napping - in many cases, like the old saying, we've sold them the rope to hang us with.

Things sometimes seem cosy and distant here in Oz. As a father of boys approaching fighting age I pray it continues that way.

Interesting conversation.

The irritation of continuing the appeasement response to Russia and China is quite valid. It has emboldened Russia, and China, and pretty much every other despotic program out there.

Russia threatened the N word within 7 days of starting this brilliant strategy. That is an indication how early on they bosses realised that the grand plan was not so grand. They have brought it out as needed every month or so since then... yawn.

China continues to salami slice up the SCS, and has finally provoked an overdue response in economic and defence circles to make them behave in a more neighbourly friendly manner. Quite a surprise strategy really by Grand Poo Bear Xi, as he is massively dependent on public apathy for the abuse of office by the PRC government, and that is dependent on keeping some 1.7B punters fed and watered. And that is dependent on... those people around that Xi has been pooping on for the last 15 years. Nice one.

Russia's economy is in an accelerated collapse, almost as fast as the demographic collapse of 18-30 year olds in "Russia, the Empire". When T-62's are the answer, gotta ask what the question was. Russias energy exports continue to collapse, their revenues are way down from the April peaks, and they now face the inability to ship energy to the last buyers. No ships, unfortunate. Russia squandered its most economically important part of its population in lunacy around Count Vlads ego, while reducing the grip it has on its uppity federated states. Once you have seen the emperor without his clothes, its hard to take that image out of your mind, or to assume that the Tsar is other than a poor bet to place on your own states stability and future success.

The vacillation on providing collective defence and meaning it led to 2014 and 2022's conditions. It is time to provide unfettered munitions to Ukraine, and to give Vlad an ultimatum that one more missile fired from Russia will result in Ukraine having authorisation to attack the military targets related to those attacks, and every single known location that an attack on an neighbouring state was made from. That is well within the UN Charter rights of all states to support. Is that a threat? No, it is a simple challenge and response so that even Vlad, the master of strategy knows that he will get what is otherwise considered to be an escalation, but what is in fact a right of self defence by a state to an aggressor. Same goes for Taiwan, and the Spratleys, Paracels etc, 24 hrs notice that they are going to be declared bombing ranges.

We can fiddle around while Rome burns, and every acquiescence leads to an emboldened aggressor. That is what they rely on.

Is that an existential threat to Russia or China? No, they have a choice to stop murdering civilians that Vlad elected in his whimsical way, to do for kicks.

The risk of a nuclear exchange rises on every occasion that we acquiesce, not where we make a blunt statement of response.

Ukraine can do the leg work very effectively, they need to be permitted to do so, and they need the equipment. We have determined not to give the best gear to Ukraine on the specious argument that they cannot employ them effectively, and that they may lose them in the field.... Ukraine has shown that it is formidable in managing their resources, strategy and tactics.

Russia won't be recognisable as The Russia of 2021 by the end of next year, and China will be lucky to have avoided a major famine. Both of these outcomes are a consequence of putting god kings on a pedestal without check, (not Czech)

2022 sucked, 2023 is going to be much more sporty.

A nuclear exchange in 2023 is not off the cards, nor has it been since 1954. It is not a high probability, but the probability rises on the absence of consequences to aggressors. We have taught Vlad and Xi well, and they are dutifully following their training.

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