Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

You would think something as simple as a net type curtain slung between some scaffolding towers would protect the substations, the suicide drones are flying from one direction so you can position the screen to cover that direction and the curtain should catch the drone in its dive before it strikes the target. They all seem to rely on basic GPS and they must have a set glidepath to the target, so the angle should be able to be worked out and a screen erected accordingly.

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

[Old_Slartibartfast]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

I'd also wager that there are a lot of threat assessments regarding Russia that have been hastily re-written over the past few months. I've been well out of the loop for twelve years, but the last time I went to a RUSI conference that was discussing the potential threats Russia posed (would have been around 2008 or 2009) the capability of their air force and land forces were definitely considered to be significantly better than has been borne out by the war in Ukraine. Medium range missiles seem to be just about the only threat that might have been assessed reasonably accurately, I think.

The impression I have is that we (as in the West) paid too much heed to weapon and platform technical capability, and far too little heed to Russia's ability to effectively deploy their military capability. Ukraine has undoubtedly performed massively better than most in the West would have expected, but there seems little doubt that this has been aided by the incompetence of even some supposedly highly capable Russian forces (like the air assault force at Hostomel). Clearly, Russian logistic support seems to be poor, bordering on non-existent in some areas, which has aided and abetted Ukrainian forces.

I'd also question the decision made by Russia to initiate this war with a ground forces attack with limited top cover. The tactics seem to have been deeply flawed, and very different to those that I think Western countries might adopt. Before starting the ground forces attack against Iraq, for example, there was the "shock and awe" air and missile attack that both knocked out a fair bit of Iraq's air defences and must have played a significant part in putting the fear of god into their ground forces. We didn't see much of that from Russia at the beginning of this war, yet from what's been happening over the past few weeks it seems clear that Russia had the capability to do that.

I believe that the study of this war is going to be a set piece in military colleges around the world for years to come.

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

That wouldn't stop the missiles. Destroying the irreplaceable Tu95/Tu160 fleets would be much more effective.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

Already on the way tank wise according to this, though I cannot fathom what the heck the navy have to do with it.. pun intended

https://worldnewsera.com/news/uk/roy...-x-ray-vision/

Another thought re the substations, stack freight containers around them to form a wall.

[Andrewgr2]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Already on the way tank wise according to this, though I cannot fathom what the heck the navy have to do with it.. pun intended

https://worldnewsera.com/news/uk/roy...-x-ray-vision/

Another thought re the substations, stack freight containers around them to form a wall.

In the UK at least, a lot of sub stations serving towns seem to be surrounded by civilian buildings and wouldn’t be easy to defend from targeted attack. National grid switching stations are seen in open countryside and would need a lot of containers to protect them - and would still be vulnerable to anything dropping from above.

[Old_Slartibartfast]

Thinking back to Iraq, wasn't one of the major targets during the first phase of Desert Storm civilian infrastructure, including power generation and sub-stations?

I remember the crew room TV showing those initial "shock and awe" attacks and I'm sure a fair number of the non-military targets were power distribution. Long time ago now, though, and we were very busy at the time (on trials unconnected with that operation) so I was just diving in for a coffee before heading back out to the range. For some reason I have a vivid memory from that time that is almost a series of still photos of that part of the GW1.

[MPN11]

IIRC ffrom my AFOPS posture, a lot of the targets were Mil comms and supporting (power) infrastructure. A subtle difference to RF attacks on … pure civil power.

[cynicalint]

Originally Posted by MPN11

IIRC from my AFOPS posture, a lot of the targets were Mil Comms and supporting (power) infrastructure. A subtle difference to RF attacks on … pure civil power.

`Yes, Civil power is an illegal target UNLESS there is a definite and concrete military advantage to attacking it.

[Old_Slartibartfast]

Originally Posted by cynicalint

`Yes, Civil power is an illegal target UNLESS there is a definite and concrete military advantage to attacking it.

Wasn't this the case in GW1? I believe (but stand to be corrected) that a fair bit of Iraq's C2 was located in, or very near, civilian infrastructure, and was using civilian power, so became a legitimate target. Not so sure about the TV and radio transmission towers that were taken out, but doing that has been a feature of war since WWII.

[cynicalint]

Originally Posted by Old_Slartibartfast

Wasn't this the case in GW1? I believe (but stand to be corrected) that a fair bit of Iraq's C2 was located in, or very near, civilian infrastructure, and was using civilian power, so became a legitimate target. Not so sure about the TV and radio transmission towers that were taken out, but doing that has been a feature of war since WWII.

Yes, but all measures must be taken to minimise collateral damage ,UNLESS, the target is being used against the Geneva Convention in order to prevent an attack. ie, storing weapons in a religious building removes the Geneva Convention protection of that building. Same with Comms or power, but systems analysis must identify the most vulnerable point with the least collateral. We have got used to low, or no, collateral, and becomes a massive shock when adversaries ignore the Geneva Convention.

[uxb99]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

While I agree, you are forgetting that most countries would have the ability to strike back with similar or greater effect.

[uxb99]

We have just given Sea Kings to Ukraine. How long before the west has run out of old kit and has to start donating new stuff? Or does the west have a plentiful supply of military tat (for wont of a better phrase).

[sir]

Originally Posted by uxb99

While I agree, you are forgetting that most countries would have the ability to strike back with similar or greater effect.

Just a nuance on that: I’m sure Ukraine has the ability to strike back but not the “permission”. I think they should be given that permission now, using any kit they have or have been given by western countries. Why should they continue to fight with one arm tied behind their backs ?

[meleagertoo]

Mk4 or SAR SeaKings are hardly 'tat' in a context that requires troop mobilty, forward supply or casevac. They may be old tech but they're reliable and capable in their role, hardly different from the comparable Mil8 etc both sides are already using.
Just a few more. Surely we have a couple of squadrons of Junglies in mothball at Colerne or wherever?
They served us well for decades - and how? - but can't we dig them out now for a final blaze of glory?

[Sue Vêtements]

Originally Posted by Old_Slartibartfast

Thinking back to Iraq, wasn't one of the major targets during the first phase of Desert Storm civilian infrastructure, including power generation and sub-stations?

Wasn't one of the objectives in WWII the Mohne Dam?

[cynicalint]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

Wasn't one of the objectives in WWII the Mohne Dam?

And yes, post WWII changes to the Geneva Convention have made such a target illegal. Releasing forces over which one has no further control ie, water or nuclear material. It was NOT illegal in WW2!.

[Old_Slartibartfast]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

Wasn't one of the objectives in WWII the Mohne Dam?

Good point, but it was pretty contentious, I believe. Mind you the Nazi's bombed the civilian populations of the UK, and we did the same in Germany.

My uncle was a bomb aimer in the second wave over Dresden. He never recovered from seeing that firestorm. He was invalided out of the RAF because he was mentally unfit to fly after that. For some reason the psychological impact of that raid stopped him from being able to write, as well as giving him a speech impediment. He spent the last 15 years of his life shut in his bedroom, with the curtains drawn, unable to cope with the outside world.

[jolihokistix]

In this case there is little or no ambiguity. Just at the onset of winter, these attacks are direct and satisfying punishment on the civilian population. With luck there may be a military spin-off too, but that is secondary for the Russian command and fan base.

[RatherBeFlying]

Substations supporting RF logistics are a legitimate military target, but can AFU target them? Permission from its suppliers and capability are the questions.

Transmission corridors may be an easier target. In GWII and possibly GWI, missiles draped conductors across the power lines tripping breakers. The line is u/s until it's cleaned up.

As long as conductors are being draped frequently, the line crews can't keep up.
​​​