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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 30th Sep 2022, 16:03
  #9941 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
"Norway to deploy military to protect its oil and gas installations against possible sabotage following the Nord Stream pipeline attacks."


Link: https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/stat...jlL7Dg-4DWLNrg

https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/stat...jlL7Dg-4DWLNrg
Will send some OPVs, no doubt.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 17:16
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The cream of Russian mobiz have arrived.

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Old 30th Sep 2022, 17:27
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Russia will have to ask Ukraine to let its forces withdraw from the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, which has been practically encircled by Ukrainian troops, as Ukraine was forced to do some eight years ago as regards Ilovaisk.“8 years ago, ru-military surrounded our near Ilovaisk. Our guys agreed to surrender without weapons. But Russia broke its word. The column was shot. Today RF will have to ask for an exit from Lyman. Only if, of course, those in Kremlin are concerned with their soldiers,” reads the advisor’s tweet posted Friday, September 30.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...-cauldron.html
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 18:30
  #9944 (permalink)  
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UKR receive anti-personnel MLRS rounds…

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Old 30th Sep 2022, 18:37
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This relates back to the reason why NATO dropped Tripwire and moved to Flexible Response and deployed battlefield. & INF nukes in Europe to provide coupling & uncertainty.


Sergei Karaganov says that he is 99% sure that the U.S. will not retaliate if Russia launched a nuclear strike on a NATO country that supports Ukraine.

Karaganov's scenario appears to be in relation to Poland, as he says it would take a "madman" in the White House who "hates America" to sacrifice Boston for Poznan

Karaganov has made similar claims in the past about Article 5 of NATO having little practical value….
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 18:49
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The cream of Russian mobiz have arrived.



https://twitter.com/TuliosportsINC/s...73325036814336
The expression "pissed as a rolling fart" would seem appropriate.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 19:14
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fdr - Correct me if I am wrong, I am under the impression that the UN charter actually requires that members of the UN come to the aid of a member who is attacked and that this would not require a vote in the security council, as any country rendering assistance in such circumstances, would be simply fulfilling its obligations under the UN charter?

Nutty - Why wood the Ukrainian's let them withdraw, only to reform and attack again? Surrender or die is the only sensible response to that request.

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Old 30th Sep 2022, 19:19
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Sergei Karaganov says that he is 99% sure that the U.S. will not retaliate if Russia launched a nuclear strike on a NATO country that supports Ukraine.

Karaganov's scenario appears to be in relation to Poland, as he says it would take a "madman" in the White House who "hates America" to sacrifice Boston for Poznan

Karaganov has made similar claims in the past about Article 5 of NATO having little practical value….
The answer to that is only a madman would sacrifice Moscow and St Petersburg for Poznan
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 19:24
  #9949 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WB627
fdr - Correct me if I am wrong, I am under the impression that the UN charter actually requires that members of the UN come to the aid of a member who is attacked and that this would not require a vote in the security council, as any country rendering assistance in such circumstances, would be simply fulfilling its obligations under the UN charter?

Nutty - Why wood the Ukrainian's let them withdraw, only to reform and attack again? Surrender or die is the only sensible response to that request.
Just leave them. Without supplies things will get pretty bad for them very quickly like the Germans at Stalingrad. Winter is coming.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 19:43
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Originally Posted by WB627
fdr - Correct me if I am wrong, I am under the impression that the UN charter actually requires that members of the UN come to the aid of a member who is attacked and that this would not require a vote in the security council, as any country rendering assistance in such circumstances, would be simply fulfilling its obligations under the UN charter?

Nutty - Why wood the Ukrainian's let them withdraw, only to reform and attack again? Surrender or die is the only sensible response to that request.
Possibly they cannot handle the amount of prisoners, let them leave unarmed? Though if you read the rest Ukraine did that in their past and were then murdered by the Russians. I agree it would be strange to let them walk away, especially considering war crimes have likely been committed by those in Lyman.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 19:58
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Aviation Content

It looks like Vlads about to have another go with his mysterious nuclear powered cruise missile aka Skyfall, again.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/se...-novaya-zemlya

Is the timing of this a coincidence?

It’s thought the last three launch attempts went to visit the fishes before the nuke bit began to spread the Russian love, but maybe the physics will go this time.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 20:11
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Reports that Stoltenberg will make some form of announcement in the next few hours...
Stoltenberg's announcement:


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Old 30th Sep 2022, 21:42
  #9953 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WB627
fdr - Correct me if I am wrong, I am under the impression that the UN charter actually requires that members of the UN come to the aid of a member who is attacked and that this would not require a vote in the security council, as any country rendering assistance in such circumstances, would be simply fulfilling its obligations under the UN charter?

Nutty - Why wood the Ukrainian's let them withdraw, only to reform and attack again? Surrender or die is the only sensible response to that request.
Sorry for the delay, was listening to the translation of Vlads speech, which caused me to throw up a little, he is hard to swallow. Could be a new vocation for Vlad, at weight watchers....

So, in answer,

United Nations Charter, Chapter I: Purposes and Principles article 2, (4 different gross breaches...)
Spoiler
 



United Nations Charter, Chapter II: Membership. Contrary to Article 4. May be suspended under Article 5, may be expelled under Article 6, (RUSSIA DOES NOT HAVE VETO IN THE UNSC, THEY DON'T GET A VOTE)Article 3 balances Article 4...
Spoiler
 


Sorry, Vlad just made me puke on colonialism...


Vlad "its their right enshrined in the UN Charter... Golly he needs glasses.

United Nations Charter, Chapter VI: Pacific Settlement of Disputes. Article 37 should have been invoked by some member of the UN, Ukraine abides with their obligations under Article 33. Russia ignored theirs., no one else did. That should have invoked Art 34.
Spoiler
 

Pretty shabby.

United Nations Charter, Chapter VII: Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression.
Majority of this Chapter is what should have been done and was not, Article 51 is the right of self defense, and the right for any UN state to come to the aid of a UN member being attached or threatened by another country. Russia maintains a discredited fantasy that they are the victim of... Hitler, the depredations of... Ukraine... ? and apparently some revisionist history lessons, and some incoherent rambling about protecting non-french, non-spanish etc speaking people as being a basis for annexation. Watch out Chelsea, watch out Little Russia, NY...

The first sentence of 51 gives the rights. The rest stands as a testament to the failure of the UN.

Article 51

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.
Spoiler
 


Gotta go, Vlads speech is leaving an aftertaste, something is rancid in it...

As far as conducting a criminal invasion in 2014 and 2022, murdering civilians in MI -17, supplying soldiers to foment civil discontent in a sovereign nation, conducting sham elections with no such authority and under gun point, murder, rape, theft, torture, failure to return library books, genocide, not replacing divots, littering, abandoning vehicles.... threatening Armageddon... how today he thinks that anyone is going to believe any undertaking Russia makes ever let alone for a ceasefire is incomprehensible. Perhaps he actually believes what he vomits up.

Whoops, off I go again,... bletch!
Where do the carrots and tomato skins come from???

P.S.: Jens Stoltenberg NATO-SG, made a specific use of the statement "not a party to..." which would appear to indicate that UN Charter Article 27(3) may be about to be invoked to permit the UNSC to try a vote. There is only a wildcard with China, whether they want to be on Russia's side or not. If they did, expect secondary sanctions pretty promptly which would destabilize China. Interesting times, but there is no way that Putin may be permitted to win if such behavior is not to spread. His comment on nuclear blackmail is on point. NATO supports the ongoing investigation on the sabotage of Nordstream... guess the Spetznaz frogmen are going to have some 6th floor window incident, flippers causing mass tripping over sill I guess, and the planting of passes for a pregnant lady in their pockets. The hole in the back of their heads will be purely coincidental.

Time for bets on whodunnit.... My bet is still Russia, and the evidence will be on the ground about the breaks, and in the sonograms.

Last edited by fdr; 30th Sep 2022 at 22:00. Reason: PS
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 21:58
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fdr - Thank you for that.

Too much dependant on the security council, however.......

I think Article 51 covers it...

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.
As I read it, anyone can invoke Article 51 and come to the aid of Ukraine (collective self-defence) without a directive from the security council. I think the Poles will get there first, they have a lot of scores to settle with Russia.


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Old 30th Sep 2022, 22:45
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Weren't the Ruskies supposed to abstain from voting in the UNSC meeting today?
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 01:52
  #9956 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WB627
Too much dependant on the security council, however....... I think Article 51 covers it... As I read it, anyone can invoke Article 51 and come to the aid of Ukraine (collective self-defence) without a directive from the security council. I think the Poles will get there first, they have a lot of scores to settle with Russia.
UN action is way overdue, but is potentially problematic with China, it sure puts them in the spotlight in the next surprise in Taiwan. But, they also need their 95% of trade to continue.

As a clarification on Nordstream, and NATO Article 5; Article 5 is very broad in it's scope, and would include any armed attack against a NATO state, which could be considered to be their energy supplies as well. Article 6 of NATO gives further criteria, that is assumed to constrain the criteria of Article 5, but does not do so. It specifically states what would be unquestionably trigger events for Article 5, it does not exclude an action such as an armed attack against Nordstream or, against the Danish oil production platforms. There is a simple action that would remove any question in respect to response, and would head off Vlads increasingly psychotic episodes... :

NATO could place a minimum of 1 NATO troop on every production platform, vessel and other item of interest that they wish to deny Vlad an opportunity to wreak local environmental damage, and terrorist attack.... With a notified presence and notification to Vlad assuming that he hasn't thrown his phone out the 6th floor window already... well Article 6 removes any question that may linger in Vlads imagination as to the response of NATO. He can always refer to the NATO SG's speech of yesterday on the matter, there seems to be little doubt that Jan S. takes the more expansive and inclusive view that sabotage of infrastructure within and without of the territory of NATO members is considered an Article 5 matter. 1 sailor, soldier (or even tailor for Vlads spy background) removes any future doubt.

The parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all, and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually, and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

NATO Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
Article 6 has been considered to be expand and limit Article 5 depending on the desired effect. [1]. 9/11 resulted in NATO invocation of Article 5 way outside of what was originally envisaged, and later, it was also suggested that the same outcome would have occurred in collective defense even without Article 5 being called on 12 Sept by NATO members. Article 6's amendment to the current wording arose in 1951 on the joining of members that had extensive colonial holdings, which had potential to expand defended regions outside of the European theatre. Suez being an example of sorts.. (not one of the highlights of UK diplomacy).


The statement "an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack" does NOT state "is limited to..." , or "excludes armed attacks outside of territory, interests, oil production platforms, etc..", hence the position that it both expands, and restricts.

[1] Grady, B.C.; 2002, ARTICLE 5 OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY: PAST, PRESENT, AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE, in GA. J. INT'L & COMP. L. Vol. 31:167 see: https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/c...&context=gjicl
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 02:44
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Originally Posted by WB627
Weren't the Ruskies supposed to abstain from voting in the UNSC meeting today?
That are automatically abstained from a vote in the UNSC under Article 27(3) being "a party to" the "dispute". They are not restricted within the UNGA voting on business, unless the UNSC suspends them [article 5 suspension/Article 6 expulsion under UNSC recommendation, of breaches of the UN Charter per Article 5 & 6, and following a UNGA vote giving a 2/3rds majority of votes, (that disregards abstentions, it is YEA vs NAY... ) under Article 18(2).

There is no caveat that gives one of the permanent members a right to not automatically abstain from a vote on a matter that they are a party to the dispute. Pays to have friends....

Article 5
Spoiler
 

Article 6
Spoiler
 

Article 18
Spoiler
 

The vote was 5 abstaining, not including Russia! every other vote was against Russia's annexation. If you want to make a difference, contact your govt direct. I have just formally objected in writing to the UN. Rude letter follows....

30 September 2022 Peace and SecurityRussia on Friday vetoed a Security Council resolution which described its attempts to unlawfully annex four regions of Ukraine earlier in the day with a formal ceremony in Moscow, as “a threat to international peace and security”, demanding that the decision be immediately and unconditionally reversed.
The draft resolution, circulated by the United States and Albania, was supported by ten of the fifteen members of the Council, with Russia voting against it. Four members abstained, Brazil, China, Gabon and India.

The draft described the so-called referendums held by Russia in the four regions of Ukraine which Moscow now regards as sovereign territory – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya – as illegal and an attempt to modify Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

Withdraw now

It called on all States, international organisations, and agencies not to recognize the Russian annexation declaration, and called on Russia to “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces” from Ukrainian territory.

Due to Russia’s veto, following a new procedure adopted in the UN General Assembly in April, the Assembly must now meet automatically within ten days for the 193-member body to scrutinize and comment on the vote. Any use of the veto by any of the Council's five permanent members triggers a meeting.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the annexation plan as a violation of international law, warning that it marked a “dangerous escalation” in the seven-month war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

“The Charter is clear”, said the UN chief. “Any annexation of a State’s territory by another State resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the Principles of the UN Charter”.

Speaking before the vote, United States Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that the referendums were a “sham”, predetermined in Moscow, “held behind the barrel of Russian guns.”

Last edited by fdr; 1st Oct 2022 at 03:01.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 06:43
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Interesting description of a successful joint operation in Kharkiv.

Especially the bit of tank commander leading from outside at 2min into the video. Ukrainians really seem to be on top of their game.

Meanwhile in Russia it appears that for the first time since 1950's Russia is establishing light infantry units en masse (you know, WW2 style). Considering they haven"t had much success in joint operations with their professional mech army and eg air force, what are they going to achive with mobiks without IFV's and experience such the Ukraine Armed Forces have?

It's time to press on and provide more and better everything to Ukraine, starting from proper winter clothing.



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Old 1st Oct 2022, 08:41
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The UN

Reviewing todays actions at the UN Security Council, I contend that the UN continues to permit Russia to veto an issue that is at their unclean hands.

Article 27 covers procedural matters, and those are associated with agendas etc, which could conceivably be impacted by Russia, as they are precluded on voting on "all other matters" that they may be a party to. The procedural vote side requires only 9 affirmative votes to be carried, and there is no requirement for any permanent member to vote affirmatively for procedural matters, e.g., there is no veto to procedural matters.
  • The only part of the Charter that speaks to permanent member voting is Article 27;
  • the term "concurring votes" which relates to arises solely in Article 27 (3);
  • The term "Veto" does not arise in the Charter;
  • The term "permanent members" is found in Article, 23, Article 27, Article 108 & Article 109.
The only relevant item to voting of permanent members is Article 27(3). Article 108 & Article109 are a frustration to amendments to the Charter, anything involving Russia is essentially doomed to the same level of desire for international harmony that Russia has shown since the:
  1. Georgian Civil war 1991
  2. South Ossetian war 1991
  3. War in Abkhazia 1992
  4. Transnistria war 1992
  5. East Prigorodny 1993
  6. Tajikistani Civil war 1992-1997
  7. Chechen War 1.0 1994-1996
  8. Dagestan 1999
  9. Chechen War 2.0 1999-2009
  10. Russo-Georgian War 2008
  11. North Caucasus 2009-2017
  12. Russian invasion of Ukraine 2014- current
  13. Syrian Civil War 2015- current
  14. Central African Republic Civil War, 2018-current
Other than that, they are a peace loving, warm-hearted country. wonderful people the Romans Russians.

Russia has no legitimate right to vote in the UNSC on any matter pertaining to non-procedural matters, and has no veto. For procedural matters under the amended interim rules of procedure there is no other veto that exists, and procedural matters other than Article 108 & 109 amendments require only 9 affirmative votes of any security council members.

WTF am I missing?



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Old 1st Oct 2022, 09:15
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Been seeing reports that lyman will be a bloodbath, russians asked for a ceasefire to withdraw. Rejected by UA, they were trying to escape in the drains

Its looking really really bad for russian forces starting to sound like a blood bath for UA forces. Hearing it from different sources this is just one

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wo...s-a-slaughter/
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