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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 30th Nov 2022, 21:20
  #12141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Yes OPSEC, it works against you putting the details out as it gives Russia information as to possibly the current Ukrainian strength, both those in the field and also a rough idea of those held in reserve.
It also can effect your populations perceptions and moral of how well your forces are doing and worrying those with family members serving, it can also reduce volunteers coming forward for service.
It prevents Russian media and propagandist’s having a media field day over the figures, thus bolstering their publics perception’s.
So Yes, OPESEC, there are strong reasons for not disclosing those figures and hence why Ukraine has always kept the figures to themselves and rightly so.
Why do you think both sides tend to “exaggerate” opposition losses, it is both for their own publics consumption to show the World how well you are doing.

​​​​​​…
Please re-read my offering on OPSEC, to which you appear to take exception. The matter is far more nuanced than "bitch!" as I tried to explain.
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 21:29
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Please re-read my offering on OPSEC, to which you appear to take exception. The matter is far more nuanced than "bitch!" as I tried to explain.
No, I was agreeing with Lonewolfs assessment as to it being piss poor of her. not taking exception to your post which I agree with.
Sorry if it sounded otherwise.
how’s this for sharpshooting lol.


Last edited by NutLoose; 30th Nov 2022 at 21:41.
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 21:40
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prisoners

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Old 30th Nov 2022, 22:12
  #12144 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​CNN- "The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials."
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 23:02
  #12145 (permalink)  
 
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They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 00:32
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..
Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 01:09
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RUSSIA’S FULL-SCALE INVASION of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has seen the return of conventional warfighting to Europe. This has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess Russia’s military capabilities and the impacts of a range of modern weapons on the battlefield. Ensuring that the correct lessons are drawn from the conflict is vital in two key respects: for Ukraine, if it is to receive appropriate military support from its international partners; and for NATO members, if they are to ensure they are militarily capable of deterring aggression in the future.
How Ukraine denied Russia its initial theory of victory and how the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) reprioritised to offensive operations in Donbas are now sufficiently historical to allow for a more open discussion of events. This report is an account of the pre-war plans of both Russia and Ukraine, the course of the initial phases of the war between February and July 2022, an overview of what has been learned about the AFRF, and an assessment of the implications for NATO and specifically the UK military.
This report is methodologically problematic. It draws on the operational data accumulated by the General Staff of the UAF during the conflict, which was made available to the authors. A significant proportion of this data cannot be made public but was used to inform the conclusions of this report. A good example is Ukrainian losses, which are factored into the conclusions reached as regards the relative effectiveness of tactics and capabilities but cannot be disclosed as they remain operationally sensitive. Other data that is cited was sometimes obtained through methods and sources of collection that are sensitive. The authors have considered the data in the context of its method of collection and the corresponding confidence in its accuracy. However, these judgements cannot be discussed in the report because the nature of the underlying sources for this data remains classified.
A very interesting analysis of both Russian and Ukrainian military and worth a read.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukrai...-web-final.pdf

Last edited by Winemaker; 1st Dec 2022 at 01:24.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 01:17
  #12148 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?

At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.

MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 01:18
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.
I heard a PPrune rumor, that opsec, may or may not matter, on a public forum, seriously
if the russians subscribe to the theory of gathering intelligence from pprune then they may not, or may..(see what i did there).. have no hope in hell in doing anything but, continue to lose this war.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 01:44
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Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 04:08
  #12151 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?
At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.
MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.
MRGA! as espoused by Vlad to save his daytime job has the same issues that it had after day 3.

Russia assumed out of Tsar Nick levels of hubris that the other team would give in to the charms of Vlads purported 2nd best army of the world in Ukraine. The corruption that has thrived under Vlads despotic rule has undermined what was already a corrupt system and assured that embarrassment would ensue. Vlads coffers are not being replenished, like the Russian military they are diminished by the hand of Vlad. The only thing that Vlad seems to have picked is that mobilisation would be "is problem....". Throwing mobiks into the fray without food, weapons, training or leadership seems to be an excellent recipe to bring down the federation, so more power to that, Vlad. Vlad is having issues with the 300K that he is effectively turning into 200's and 300's at record rates. Adding more 200's and 300's by increasing the next tranche of victims seems to be contrary to the needs for stability of the Federation. In the end, Russia has managed to alienate many of the republics, states and autonomous oblasts that make up the federation, and that is at the same time removing and damaging a generation of their population that was already too small to maintain Russia's demographics with a bucket or two of viagra. On the other side, Ukraine mobilised its population, and almost every citizen of Ukraine is intent on evicting their unwelcome neighbours.

Can't imagine the self important female talking head that appears too frequently on the Kremlin safe TV channel, being prepared to place her butt into the firing line to achieve Vlads ego trip, whereas every girl in Ukraine seems to be quite prepared and capable to defend their own land from the invaders.

Assuming the worst case of a win by Russia on the ground, that will ensure an indefinite occupation of a hostile public that Russia has shown it cannot sustain, even when they actually had a system that worked. Thanks to Vlad, and the rest of the oligarchs that have diminished Russia's capabilities for their own gains, that should result in a poisoned chalice for Russia, and that is their best outcome, which is a diminishing prospect.

Ukraine needs the extended range fire to impact Russian MSR within the borders of Ukraine. That is a manner by which both Ukrainian and Russian losses are minimised. Fighting in the trenches without interdiction of the MSR wasn't much fun in 1914-18 and this is not looking much better now in many parts. Ukraine has earned the right to be provided such fires, and they have demonstrated discipline in the employment of existing fire that justifies their provision. IMHO.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 04:38
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..
Combined arms integration is what will win the war as the front collapses back towards Russia after winter. Great to gift weapon their way, better however to teach them how to use those varying weapons systems in a coordinated fashion. Winter is the appropriate time to complete that training.

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Old 1st Dec 2022, 06:54
  #12153 (permalink)  
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Snow on the ground suggests this is recent?
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 07:30
  #12154 (permalink)  
 
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This is from March:
https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/276147
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 10:01
  #12155 (permalink)  
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Non-Russians in Chelyabinsk are being given mobilisation orders, despite partial mobilisation supposedly having ended and despite not having Russian passports or even residence permits, which should make them ineligible…..
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 10:50
  #12156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.
Relax, what I now know is limited to the date and time, and how many sleeps to Christmas.


Last edited by langleybaston; 1st Dec 2022 at 23:03.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 11:22
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Russian captives are fighting back

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Old 1st Dec 2022, 11:29
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Shades of Kuwait

The first video shows Daud Khadziev, from the infamous Samashki village. Russians burned his cow alive, tried to burn his horse alive and ate the foal. The second video is from Ukraine Yampol zoo, russians ate all the Bison, deer and ostridges and starved to death a pack of wolves and a camel.
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 11:32
  #12159 (permalink)  
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Carol of the Bells is originally a Ukrainian song called Shchedryk composed by Mykola Leontovych.

It first came to the US 100 years ago, in 1922 - Chicago marked the anniversary so beautifully.

Thank you, friends!
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Old 1st Dec 2022, 11:59
  #12160 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​Apparently, a Russian base near the Svatove-Kreminna front has been overrun by Ukrainian forces. (video)..
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