Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

It appears to be a bit of 8n fighting between Russian and Belarus troops
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...DT1eXQ2PorAAAA

NO One pick up on my post about Chemical Weapons?

How many sources? How many, if any casualties. Are we talking CS or worse? Any evidence of Russian soldiery wearing or being equipped with masks and noddy suits?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/15...bLCB1sNp5IFTww

Unconfirmed reports that Russians are starting abandoning their positions near the Inhulets River.….

According to available information, the enemy has completely left the settlements of Charivne and Chkalove, and officers and medical personnel have been evacuated from Berislav...

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/sta...bLCB1sNp5IFTww

News from #Kherson, Russian invaders & collaborators are panicing and burning documents at all kinds of institutions. They are stealing/hijacking trucks/cars and fleeing the city, a long column of civil & military vehicles is heading toward the ferry & also direction darriivka.

[NutLoose]

I would like to look on this as something good, but it is worrying me.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...25391052394497

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...bLCB1sNp5IFTww

A draft decree has been submitted to Ukraine's parliament to recognize Belarus as a "temporarily occupied territory by Russia"

[FUMR]

It is of course still guesswork at present but it does look as if Putin is no longer intent on winning (which he knows he can't) but on destroying what he failed to get. There just has to be an immensely severe military reaction from NATO countries if he does cross yet another line.

[Spunky Monkey]

Originally Posted by ORAC

News from #Kherson, Russian invaders & collaborators are panicing and burning documents at all kinds of institutions.

Being flippant for a moment but if they are burning documents, that does suggest some order.
When the US decided overnight to pull out of Afghanistan, then there were multiple instances of documents being left behind that the Taliban went through and found the contact details of many locals working for the 'West.'
(Spending time deleting computers and smashing up hard drives was completely pointless when the printed docs were lying all over the floor).

At least the Russians have presence of mind to destroy their incriminating paper evidence...I doubt their use of computers...

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by FUMR

There just has to be an immensely severe military reaction from NATO countries if he does cross yet another line.

Why do you say that? The French and Germans have had spines of cooked spgahetti noodles since February. Why would they change their apathetic response now?
Compare that to the UK, who is flying missions over the Black Sea, and apparently the Russians were close to engaging with missiles a few weeks back.
Compare to the Poles.
Compare to the Dutch.
NATO is not unified on this topic, so expecting a 'severe' NATO response is a fool's errand.

[Beamr]

A Ukrainian Su-27 downs a Russian Shahed-136 with an R-73 AAM over Odesa Oblast.

Twitter

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...03918672220161

[FUMR]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Why do you say that? The French and Germans have had spines of cooked spgahetti noodles since February. Why would they change their apathetic response now?
Compare that to the UK, who is flying missions over the Black Sea, and apparently the Russians were close to engaging with missiles a few weeks back.
Compare to the Poles.
Compare to the Dutch.
NATO is not unified on this topic, so expecting a 'severe' NATO response is a fool's errand.

Ah, but you misquote me. I said "a severe response from NATO countries" and not a severe NATO response. And the very reason I stated it that way is probably because at the back of my mind I always tend to dismiss the French and the Italians! However, I remain hopeful that the majority would band together with a suitable military response.

[ORAC]

Tell me again about that massive boost in German defence spending…

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...q-IH2K0y2I0RMg

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://t.co/c0TK7zPu6M

[fdr]

Originally Posted by petit plateau

I don't think a NATO state can choose to become a co-belligerent in a non-NATO conflict, and then invoke NATO article 5 if it is subsequently on the receiving end of a response whether on its own soil, or against its own armed forces. If a NATO [state] chooses to engage in non-NATO adventures then the consequences of that become non-NATO in nature.

NATO certainly has used flexibility in their interpretations, i.e., 20 July – 18 August 1974; Turkey - Greece, (invasion of Cypress by Turkey).

NATO membership has a number of requirements to ensure that their states have a defensive posture, but that has been a rocky road for sure. 'Arf of the NATO countries had colonies in exotic locations, and had tiffs in them, which did not invoke NATO actions. If those uppity colonials (USA excluded) had responded back in Paris, or Marseilles, or Bournemouth, er, actually they did... and nothing much happened. Those were related to the dismantlement of colonial holdings. The colonies didn't invade, they undertook terrorist attacks at that time, but it was still a line call. In the current situation, Poland would not be acting in respect of a colonial holding, they are assisting under the UN Charter, as all UN countries are obliged to do, irrespective of the UNSC failing to do their damned job, as they at least did in 1990 and 1991.

Spoiler

 

 

In 2002, the UNSC passed a single resolution (1441 8Nov02) based on the WMD theory.... oops. No other action was called for by UNSCR prior to crossing the berms from Kuwait to go on the great WMD hunt. The coalition used the remnants of UNSCR 661 as the approval to go rowdy, which had they believed the "intel" flawed or otherwise, then that would have been reasonable. Colin Powell was not a very happy camper with UK intel.

The last UNSCR comment was to remain "seized on the matter". Presumably, a further warning was expected to be given, but events overtook the seat warmers.

Iraq 2.0 was not a disaster in itelf; the disaster was when W. Paul Bremer, the so-called tzar of Iraq elected to disregard all advice from the military, CIA, DOS, on keeping a structure working in Iraq, and that led to the popular uprising by the locals who were left without water, power, sanitation or security from the single stroke of a pen.

Any NATO country taking unilateral action against Belarus would not be appreciated by the rest of NATO, what would happen would be interesting. Poland supporting Ukraine within Ukraine is a UN state obligation. That doesn't alter the wording of the NATO Treaty as it stands today, and while Polish losses in Ukraine would certainly not be trigger conditions for Art. 5, attacking a NATO state that is acting in compliance with the UN Charter within the borders of Ukraine would be a difficult breach to disregard. This is consistent with the US and other UN states comments on a response to the use of WMD/TNWs in Ukraine; that response is tending towards a conventional overwhelming strike on any and all Russian (Iranian? Syrian? Chechen?) forces in Ukraine.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

A draft decree has been submitted to Ukraine's parliament to recognize Belarus as a "temporarily occupied territory by Russia"

That may be the single largest misstep by Ukraine to date. They have followed Napoleon's adage "never interrupt your enemy when they are making mistakes..." to date, but giving a casus belli to the other side when your resupply is dependent on the support of the rest of the world is not a great leap forward.

Russia was probably about to go that way with the connivance of Lukashenko acting in self-preservation to sell out Belarus to Putin.

Alternative view, Ukraine gets a popular uprising of Belarus citizens that have had enough of Lukashekos's hemorrhoid hunt around the nether regions of Putin.

Spoiler

 

 

Putin needs a SELV LED lighting strip within his colon to assist Lukashenko find his way forward. Dark days indeed

(SELV is optional. Prefer 240KVa, but, you can't have everything).



[West Coast]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Tell me again about that massive boost in German defence spending…



BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://t.co/c0TK7zPu6M

A direct result of living under the umbrella.

[fdr]

1917

This mob is asking pertinent questions of their dear leader, and it is very reminiscent of 1917. There is no answer from Putin except for violence, and that won't make many friends on the family front. Putin may need an employment termination checklist for himself. In 1917, the Russian army used the same guns they do now, their body armor was no worse, and their airforce (Imperial Russian Air Service), a lineball call.

You Tube

[Less Hair]

A direct result of living under the umbrella.

A direct result of their inflation that is caused by Russia's energy war going on and increased energy prices. 100 billion Euros won't buy as much as hoped for a year ago. I agree they should increase military spending again but that won't help inflation either. They try to keep their economy going by desperately subsidising energy costs.
The stupid thing they did was turning to Russia for energy supplies. Now they pay the price.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...0gMA36fFICqGhw

In Belgorod, the mobilized will only be given logs for the trenches upon application to the Ministry of Defense.

Local authorities fear that firewood will fall to the enemy.

Deputy Governor of the Belgorod Region Yulia Shchedrina

[Pali]

Tank is still powerful weapon on the battlefield providing it is used properly:

Twitter

[petit plateau]

Originally Posted by fdr

NATO certainly has used flexibility in their interpretations, i.e., 20 July – 18 August 1974; Turkey - Greece, (invasion of Cypress by Turkey).

NATO membership has a number of requirements to ensure that their states have a defensive posture, but that has been a rocky road for sure. 'Arf of the NATO countries had colonies in exotic locations, and had tiffs in them, which did not invoke NATO actions. If those uppity colonials (USA excluded) had responded back in Paris, or Marseilles, or Bournemouth, er, actually they did... and nothing much happened. Those were related to the dismantlement of colonial holdings. The colonies didn't invade, they undertook terrorist attacks at that time, but it was still a line call. In the current situation, Poland would not be acting in respect of a colonial holding, they are assisting under the UN Charter, as all UN countries are obliged to do, irrespective of the UNSC failing to do their damned job, as they at least did in 1990 and 1991.

Spoiler

 

 

In 2002, the UNSC passed a single resolution (1441 8Nov02) based on the WMD theory.... oops. No other action was called for by UNSCR prior to crossing the berms from Kuwait to go on the great WMD hunt. The coalition used the remnants of UNSCR 661 as the approval to go rowdy, which had they believed the "intel" flawed or otherwise, then that would have been reasonable. Colin Powell was not a very happy camper with UK intel.

The last UNSCR comment was to remain "seized on the matter". Presumably, a further warning was expected to be given, but events overtook the seat warmers.

Iraq 2.0 was not a disaster in itelf; the disaster was when W. Paul Bremer, the so-called tzar of Iraq elected to disregard all advice from the military, CIA, DOS, on keeping a structure working in Iraq, and that led to the popular uprising by the locals who were left without water, power, sanitation or security from the single stroke of a pen.

Any NATO country taking unilateral action against Belarus would not be appreciated by the rest of NATO, what would happen would be interesting. Poland supporting Ukraine within Ukraine is a UN state obligation. That doesn't alter the wording of the NATO Treaty as it stands today, and while Polish losses in Ukraine would certainly not be trigger conditions for Art. 5, attacking a NATO state that is acting in compliance with the UN Charter within the borders of Ukraine would be a difficult breach to disregard. This is consistent with the US and other UN states comments on a response to the use of WMD/TNWs in Ukraine; that response is tending towards a conventional overwhelming strike on any and all Russian (Iranian? Syrian? Chechen?) forces in Ukraine.

If you go and read the NATO articles you will definitely find that it specifically excludes the vast majority of the colonial posessions of all NATO countries, precisely so as to not make NATO Art 5 hostage to foreign adventures during the retreat from empire phase. I'm not 100% certain where the vestigial pieces stand wrt NATO articles - I'm thinking for example of Gibraltar (UK); Guantanamo (USA); or the various French DoMs and ToMs, but there are many more - and I think they mostly remain technically excluded from Art 5 matters.

Turning to the example you repeat of (say) Poland committing military forces into Ukraine thereby becoming a co-belligerent, and then being on the receiving end of Russian responses in Poland itself, I think that too is excluded from Art 5. If NATO collectively were to intervene - for whatever reason - then that would be a different matter. However any individual NATO-state voluntarily becoming a co-belligerent I believe puts itself outside Art 5 for this purpose. This is precisely why NATO as a whole is taking a qualitatively cohesive stance on this conflict. How is it that you read the NATO articles dfferently ?

(I think the various Iraq and Afghanistan episodes you cite are qualitatively different in nature due to the invocation of UN resolutions, so I think they are a red-herring in the current situation. Regrettably the UN structures suffer from the same drawbacks as the League Of Nations in the limit.)

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I would like to look on this as something good, but it is worrying me.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...25391052394497

If the clowns have dumped the water supply to the intakes, then getting outta dodge is a good idea. The fuel rods in place will still need cooling, as they would if withdrawn and put into cooling ponds. No new water supply, probably don't want to be near by. Would think that the IAEA would be rather interested in the current status of what the Russian Terrorists Army have done in ZNPP. The only good news is, Russia is downwind.