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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Nov 2022, 17:56
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Hmmm I wonder if that is Zelensky saying it is possibly a cover up by western leaders to prevent them having to take further action? It hints at that.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:03
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Hmmm I wonder if that is Zelensky saying it is possibly a cover up by western leaders to prevent them having to take further action? It hints at that.
That's a good question. Information and rumor fly fast, he points out that he needs to be in the loop on the investigation. (He's desirous of not getting blamed for two deaths in Poland, probably).
He needs to walk a fine line, and has had to since before 24 Feb.
If he makes a careless move he may lose support from some of the folks who are, to date, offering him support.
Between a rock and a hard place, he is.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:10
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Agree ... surprised he's ducking the issue. A simple "Sorry, we're busy having a War here" would have sufficed. But the poor sod is under so much pressure, I really feel sympathy for him.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:16
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I would imagine somewhere on the remains there will be a serial number that can be traced, however such as the war is, both sides have been using captured weaponry so tracing may be impossible.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:21
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Ukraine now has fire control over Russia’s three main supply routes, it just got worse as the alternate is a journey of 80-120Km for artillery shells.


Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Nov 2022 at 21:00.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:24
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I would imagine somewhere on the remains there will be a serial number that can be traced, however such as the war is, both sides have been using captured weaponry so tracing may be impossible.
I was thinking that. A S/N may tell you which factory it left and when, if the records are available, but not much beyond that unless the logistic records are better than I expect.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:41
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Aviation Content:

As a photographer who loves perfect reflections on water I think this is absolutely stunning imagery, plus those gorgeous autumnal tones.

​​​​​​​
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:44
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I would have thought the Poles would be been pretty forthright with their response if there was a strong suspicion the missile had originated from Russian territory.

Russia's strenuous denials last night were noteworthy. They're sh*t-scared of unintentionally drawing NATO into the conflict.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 18:47
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CNN: Ukraine tells US, allies it attempted missile interception near Poland.

Ukraine informed the U.S. and its allies that it tried to intercept a Russian missile near and in the timeframe of the missile strike on Poland on Nov. 15, CNN reported, citing a U.S. official.

It is currently unclear whether the missile that hit Poland was the same missile that Ukraineís military attempted to intercept.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 20:10
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I would imagine somewhere on the remains there will be a serial number that can be traced, however such as the war is, both sides have been using captured weaponry so tracing may be impossible.
Serial numbers ? Surely there are multiples of NATO aircraft tracking all flignts/missiles .What can be more clear than that ?
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 21:06
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Serial numbers ? Surely there are multiples of NATO aircraft tracking all flignts/missiles .What can be more clear than that ?
Yes, but then last night it was being pinned on Russia, so either those in charge were not being briefed on the source or there were other reasons.
I would also doubt they would ever release NATO aircraft tracking data either as it will give Russia an indication of our tracking capabilities etc. so it’s who you believe, NATO, Russia or Ukraine, as it is their word only you would have to go on.
At least serial numbers can hopefully nail it down as factual.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 21:18
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Yes, but then last night it was being pinned on Russia, so either those in charge were not being briefed on the source or there were other reasons.
At least serial numbers can hopefully nail it down as factual.

I would have thought beyond serial numbers, the type of debris found would indicate where it came from - e.g. S-300, it's Ukranian; Iskander, it's Russian (unless it's neither and came from Belarus....)
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:02
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Yes, but then last night it was being pinned on Russia, so either those in charge were not being briefed on the source or there were other reasons.
I would also doubt they would ever release NATO aircraft tracking data either as it will give Russia an indication of our tracking capabilities etc. so itís who you believe, NATO, Russia or Ukraine, as it is their word only you would have to go on.
At least serial numbers can hopefully nail it down as factual.
Fairly unlikely as Ukraine is still using exclusively Soviet-built missiles in the larger categories ( S 300 etc ) which the damage seems to indicate this was.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:09
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Am I missing something fundamental here but surely it is easy to determine if the missile that hit Poland is the remains of an "offensive" one, or the remains of a "defensive" one.? Is it a missile or an anti-missile missile.

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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:21
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Am I missing something fundamental here but surely it is easy to determine if the missile that hit Poland is the remains of an "offensive" one, or the remains of a "defensive" one.? Is it a missile or an anti-missile missile.
Exactly what I've been thinking. Too many reports saying 'most likely' and 'probably' etc..
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:47
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:48
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For Heaven's sake, surely it was inevitable that sooner or later some ordnance wandered over the NATO border by mistake. It hit nothing of strategic importance nd all the signs are an error. By what side is irrelevant, Russian has absolutely no interest in blowing up Polish farm carts so surely best to leave out the hystrionics and assume no malice where error/blunder is far more likely.
In any case one instance of a couple of Polish farmers and a tractor most assuredly do NOT justify any escalation or retaliation unless malice can be attributed.
Sure, it may well cause alarm but NATO needs to be very calm and collected over such events lest the more hot-headed among us see this as an opportunity to do something daft.
The Ukraine is no more unable to fire an errant missile than is Russia - we would do well to remember that and act accordingly.

Thank God this time we seem to have seen sense but the potential in a more unfortunately placed error is all too clear to see.

We need very calm and pragmatic heads just now, fortunately the NATO responses adhered to that commendably in this case while the Russian answer was predictably wild and irrational.

Great care needs to be taken lest the orcs get ahead of themselves one day and are too blinded by their own bile and dogma that they can't see a way back.
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 22:51
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Reminds me of the Belgique Mig 23 incident, an unfortunate accident no one could have predicted.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...armhouse-65521
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Old 16th Nov 2022, 23:39
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Am I missing something fundamental here but surely it is easy to determine if the missile that hit Poland is the remains of an "offensive" one, or the remains of a "defensive" one.? Is it a missile or an anti-missile missile.


Recently - due to shortages - Russia has sometimes been using any type of missile as an offensive weapon i.e. S 3oo which is ground - air as ground-ground.
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 00:08
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Recently - due to shortages - Russia has sometimes been using any type of missile as an offensive weapon i.e. S 3oo which is ground - air as ground-ground.
Thank you. That seems fair judging by what else we have seen these past months.
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