Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Jobza Guddun]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

My read of the 'acting governor of Kherson's' statement is that the Russians plan to breach upstream dams and flood the area. So much for helping the recently annexed Russian citizens........ Looks like a scorched earth policy now; time for the Crimean bridge to take a tumble. With all the Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure maybe it's time to stop the Crimean water supply; the Ukrainians haven't been emulating their invaders but goose and gander.....

Agreed, "we're relocating the population [whether they like it or not] and we're going to blow the dam so the Ukrainians can't have the city either".

Certainly looks like scorched earth now too. Is he working towards a withdrawal back to the border and a claim that Ukraine has been removed as a threat as the infra has all been destroyed?

[NutLoose]

Russian body armour.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...77443862163458

Twitter

[NutLoose]

AK47 the worlds most numerous weapon, except in the DNR / LNR, tin hats and ww2 rifles.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...CphdG7-vUrAAAA

Twitter

[ORAC]

Russia to implement Martial Law tomorrow?

Fall of Kherson perhaps forcing their hand…

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...nI6wqYflp1E6eQ

[NutLoose]

Kherson,” we will not surrender the City”

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...77140238696448

Twitter

[NutLoose]

State TV calling for strikes at training bases across Europe, gets put down by the guests. Mainly in second film.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/st...35654041948160

Twitter

https://twitter.com/pedroodonoghue/s...37069942816768

Twitter

.

[fdr]

Bleak Future for Kerch Coat Hanger

Originally Posted by Winemaker

My read of the 'acting governor of Kherson's' statement is that the Russians plan to breach upstream dams and flood the area. So much for helping the recently annexed Russian citizens........ Looks like a scorched earth policy now; time for the Crimean bridge to take a tumble. With all the Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure maybe it's time to stop the Crimean water supply; the Ukrainians haven't been emulating their invaders but goose and gander.....

Originally Posted by Jobza Guddun

Agreed, "we're relocating the population [whether they like it or not] and we're going to blow the dam so the Ukrainians can't have the city either".

Certainly looks like scorched earth now too. Is he working towards a withdrawal back to the border and a claim that Ukraine has been removed as a threat as the infra has all been destroyed?

Originally Posted by ORAC

Russia to implement Martial Law tomorrow?

Fall of Kherson perhaps forcing their hand…
(from Kerch thread...)

Spoiler

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

Todays revelation that there is any intent by Russia to destroy the dam on the Dneiper, upstream of Kherson, will make the Kerch Bridge, and the channel of the Sea of Azov under the centre span an inevitable total loss. That would be well within the Ukrainian capabilities to achieve, and makes Rostov irrelevant, as well as all the cities on the edge of Azov, like Berdiansk, Marioupol, etc. It also is an own goal to Crimea, losing the water supply to purportedly guarantee water to the same place seems to suggest that the emotional 5 Y/O is past his bed time and should stop making plans while in a huff.

Fill in the blanks for 5 points each:

1. Russia blows the Karkhova dam, Ukraine [fill in the blank] to [fill in the blank]. This leaves [fill in the blank] without [fill in the blank] for the next [fill in the blank].
2. Russia blows the ZNPP, Ukraine [fill in the blank] to [fill in the blank]. This leaves [fill in the blank] without [fill in the blank] for the next [fill in the blank].

(90 points just for spelling your name right)

I'm sure that there has been lots said about bad behaviour... certain there has been.... yes! Apparently a bit of a theme of old yore, chatted about for crowd control in the building that makes my skin flash to ash on entry...

Galatians 6: 7 "Do not be deceived: God is not mocked, for whatever one sows, that will he also reap".
Proverbs 22: 8 "Whoever sows injustice will reap calamity, and the rod of his fury will fail".
Job 4: 8 "As I have seen, those who plow iniquity and sow trouble reap the same".
Hosea 8: 7 "For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind. The standing grain has no heads; it shall yield no flour; if it were to yield, strangers would devour it".


I'm not the most religious person out there, probably destined for needing hot weather attire, but pretty sure that a central tenet of humanity is "do unto others..." apparently Vlad is making up the rest of the saying, and just adding a single word: "again".
Mathew 7: 12 “So whatever you wish that others would do to you, do also to them, for this is the Law and the Prophets".


"Wonderful people the romans.... "



And another thing:

Russia dropping the dam at Nova Karkhova, or dropping a nuke on Kherson is the epitome of a terrorist act, and has about a 90% chance of being viewed as such by 70% of the UN states, and a 70% chance of 90% of the UN states viewing that as a state sponsored terrorist action.
The action has reportedly been suggested by Russia's puppets, and Russia is the 7urd at the top of that pile of excrement.

So what happens when Russia gets finally, and well beyond due date, labelled as a terrorist state, and certainly a sponsor of terrorism? (remember Chechnya? 2014, Georgia? etc, they are a recidivist terrorist state, and they may be about to cross the rubicon of bad taste).

1. Does the right of "innocent passage" relate to a terrorist organisation, actor or state? Ooops Vlad, enjoy your boating around St Pete, and exactly how will you be communicating with Kaliningrad? You effectively shut down Kaliningrad, about time too. How about the Black Sea fleet? where ya gonna run to sinner man? You won't get down to Turkey, and if you do, your fleet will be impounded on arrival in waters beyond Turkey, but even Turkey will not stand for Russia as a terrorist state using their waterway. Every Russian flagged ship, plane will be at risk of being impounded where they are, as they should be, where Russia is a terrorist state. That leaves Vlad with the Northern fleet to play with, and a constrained Pacific fleet. Nice job Vlad. Russian shipping, out of business, secondary sanctions guarantee that outcome.
2. Trade with Russia such that it is would be curtained completely,
3. Travel of any Russian passports would be a thing of memory,
4. Mandatory seizure of all assets in foreign jurisdictions,
5. [add as necessary... ]

I was wondering why the US has been so reticent to label Russia a terrorist state, and it is because it is catastrophic to Russia, as it should be. Russia gets to do Russian stuff in Russia for a fair old time, and doesn't get to do anything with the rest of the world

US State Dept naughty List:

• Cuba January 12, 2021
• Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) November 20, 2017
• Iran January 19, 1984
• Syria December 29, 1979

How many of these naughty list states ship, trade, interact with the country that designates them as terrorist states?



[NutLoose]

That backfired on a Russian reporter after a scoop.

https://twitter.com/dan_irl_/status/1582287307310186497

Twitter

[jolihokistix]

Originally Posted by Jobza Guddun

Agreed, "we're relocating the population [whether they like it or not] and we're going to blow the dam so the Ukrainians can't have the city either".

Certainly looks like scorched earth now too. Is he working towards a withdrawal back to the border and a claim that Ukraine has been removed as a threat as the infra has all been destroyed?

This has for some time looked like their only possible way out of Ukraine.

Glorious message for Russian home audience as they generously pull back to original borders.
”We warned them lovingly that this was going to hurt us more than it would hurt them, and we thrashed them good and hard. Let this be a lesson to them, and to other uppity autonomous states. And we’ll do it again if necessary!”

[fdr]

Russia's Logic: ​​​​​​​A squeeze of lemmings?

We invaded Ukraine to protect Russian Speakers

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Yet our troops raped and murdered the very people we came to "protect". The males, we forced into fighting to "liberate" their country, we spent kopeks to give them plastic helmets and airsoft play body armour, and 1891's. We forgot to feed them, and we put paroled criminals and fat Majors behind them to make sure they stood their ground. We are brilliant strategists!

We invaded Ukraine to ensure Crimea's access to water

Spoiler

 

 

And then we propose to blow the dam that provides the water to Crimea.

We are demilitarising Ukraine

Spoiler

 

 

Ukraine has more Russian made tanks now than they did on 24 Feb 22. Ukraine has some of the most advanced Western weapon systems available, and has a continued supply of those. In the background, unstated, is the renewal of the NATO munitions supplies, all older stock is being used against Russia, and that ensures that the Western armament industry has work for the next few years replacing the old stock, and providing additional stockpiles of effective systems. Well done masterminds.

We are stopping NATO's expansion

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ROFL!. So, Finland is joining NATO, Sweden is joining NATO, Switzerland is likely to join NATO.... Ukraine will likely join NATO, and any final peace treaty will include an Article 5 like clause written in blood anyway for the protection of Ukraine from Russia. Monrovia is going to have a think about NATO membership. Georgia wants to join NATO. Armenia would love to, but Turkey will never permit that.. So Russia, kudos!, You are the best thing that has ever happened to NATO's membership drive, and to unification and reinvigorating the alliance. Excellent plan Vlad!.

We are getting rid of Nazi's

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Nazi's are prolific on the ground, all bearing the white/blue/red flag of Russia on their uniform. The deportations? Russia, The mass murders? Russia, The torturing and murder of POW's? Russia. Hitler would thank Vlad for improving Adolf's ranking as most evil individual in Europe. Takes some skill to rehabilitate Adolf Hitler's reputation as Mother Teresa, but ya did it, Vlad, ya did. Vlad can expect some issues should he ever leave the territory of Russia without "diplomatic immunity", which doesn't exist if they are declared a terrorist state.

To improve and grow Russia into the former glory of the USSR Empire

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China, thanks you for helping them extend their sphere of influence over the former CIS states. 谢谢你!

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Russia's armament industry has been tested and found wanting. As a sales pitch, watching the turret of your tanks reach dizzying heights with a hint of what was previously 3 of your soldiers does wonders for sales. The MiG 29 availability of 20%, the efficiency of Su-34's to park in the ground.... the convertible surface ship/submarines... a good sales story, for Raytheon.


All in all, Vlad, you have had a busy few weeks, not many people have done the damage to Russia that Vlad has achieved, and most of it with the willing public cheering him on.

A squeeze of lemmings?

[punkalouver]

Through action, a Man becomes a Hero

Through death, a Hero becomes a Legend

Through time, a Legend becomes a Myth

And by learning from the Myth, a Man takes action

How Ukraine's 'Ghost of Kyiv' legendary pilot was born - BBC News

Two Steps From Hell - Heart of Courage (Extended Version) - YouTube

[fdr]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

”We warned them lovingly that this was going to hurt us more than it would hurt them, and we thrashed them good and hard. Let this be a lesson to them, and to other uppity autonomous states. And we’ll do it again if necessary!”

Seems that the Russians don't have an army corps of engineers as the US does; the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, HPP, is a run of river system, there is no substantial body of water waiting to be released by blowing the dam, its not the Hoover gravity dam etc.... The result of blowing the dam wall is to achieve the label of international terrorists, and to deprive Ukraine of another power supply, and to give a reasonable justification for Ukraine to shut down the water access for Crimea. That hasn't been done as yet, as Ukraine is not a terrorist state, the only one doing that sort of extortion is Russia. As a response though, why would Ukraine assist Russia in recovering the canal from the natural recoursing of the water way downstream of the wreckage that would exist at Kakhovka? No good deed, etc. Any loss of roads on the left bank from the flooding, would certainly not be in Ukraine's interest to recover from, and the cost of the replacement dam can be forwarded to the ICJ as a claim against frozen Russian assets, adding to the ZNPP, the TPP's and the hundreds of billions of infrastructure and personal property losses from the criminal actions of the Kremlin. It is the Kremlin that decided that this wasn't a war, the damage to date is simple criminal action, not acts of war...

[Obba]

Originally Posted by T28B

notasmodnoradmin
I am not sure if this was intended for drones, but if you have enough money you might be able to get one of these.

It may not be ready in the near term, but it looks like what you are referring to.

Here's a YT video about it...

Finally: The US Army Receives a lethal new 300 kilowatt laser gun - YouTube

'

[ChrisJ800]

To counter the drones with 40kg non armour piercin warheads that use GPS i propose chicken wire fencing around energy infrastrucure targets. When i drove around GCHQ in Cheltenham i am sure my car GPS was not working there so gps and glonass can be jammed.. This seems more cost effective than using high tech and expensive ordinance to take them out?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...eRuALFo2obRjKA

Sergey Elizarov, a councilman in the western Russian town of Tarusa, wrote to the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office about gross violations of the law by the local military registration and enlistment office during mobilisation.

They responded by mobilising him too. 🧵 below.

[beardy]

Originally Posted by ChrisJ800

When i drove around GCHQ in Cheltenham i am sure my car GPS was not working there so gps and glonass can be jammed..

I think that your car's GPS is faulty. Is it in a Lada?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/eliotacohen/stat...eRuALFo2obRjKA

Superb piece by someone who knows KGB/FSB officers really well — and from there extrapolates convincingly about what will and what won’t deter Putin from going nuclear.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/a...r-that-he-was/

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was

[Usertim]

Whilst dropping the dam is just the kind of insane action that might be attractive to the russians ( and they have history from WW2 of blowing Dnipr dams) , if you look at a topography map the left bank of the Dnipr is on average considerably lower elevation than the right. The flooding would be much worse south of the river as FDR alluded. The Khakova dam is perhaps currently holding back more water (18 cubic km) than the Hoover dam ( nominally 32 cubic km when Lake Mead is full, which it certainly is not in recent years).

Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.

[jolihokistix]

@Usertim. Irradiate the Crimean water supply, then?

Or Pootan’s Bluff?

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

@Usertim. Irradiate the Crimean water supply, then?

Or Pootan’s Bluff?

Well that is another sensible reason not to blow the dam, there would be no head of water for the canal. I doubt radiation would be an issue though after all that water washed through .

I think the canal is overstated in its importance, it is largely economic - 80% of the water was used for irrigation or industry. Russia may not care about that anymore. According to wiki (!) the area under cultivation in crimea declined by 90% between 2014 and 2017 ( those figures seem very high for such a short period though).