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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Sep 2022, 15:22
  #9701 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
Hearing stories from a few friends (one is married to a Chinese) and whispers coming from their families out there in messages that there's lots of military activity in and around Bejing, so......there could be some legs in this story?

There's stories of 6000 flights being suddenly cancelled in China too, plus rail journey suspensions.
I have been keeping my powder dry on this after my initial post but I am also hearing lots of independent evidence that gives the rumour credibility - without being able to 100% confirm it.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 15:28
  #9702 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation content:

"A Russian SU-30 on fire after being hit by Ukrainian manpads. It crashed along with another Russian SU-25. 24.09.2022. Southern Ukraine."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:00
  #9703 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The start of the disintegration of the Russian Federation?

Kadyrov now has sizeable forces loyal only to him - as recently shown - and what has Putin left to suppress any uprisings or cecessions?

And in Chechnya, and elsewhere, memories run deep.

As recently stated Russia’s entire southern flank is now afire.

Bring popcorn….



Ramzan Kadyrov just refusing to launch the mobilization in Chechnya …

Im still wondering why Belorussia is also so quiet..very odd given their previous election issues
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:29
  #9704 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8
Nice lady says she is sorry but management have deemed the use of .ru email addresses a threat to the reputation of the business and could I use something else (like gmail) as they can't allow any correspondence to any .ru entity.
OK, I agreed, but afterwards thought.. this is going way way beyond what I imagined.
Glad to hear you are OK, please be careful.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:30
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Bulgakov sacked

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63021117
The blamegame is underway
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:38
  #9706 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sangiovese.
Im still wondering why Belorussia is also so quiet..very odd given their previous election issues
Funny you should mention Belarus....


Last edited by AndySmith; 24th Sep 2022 at 17:07.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:40
  #9707 (permalink)  
 
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Just wondering if there is a Russian version of Hanna Reitsch getting ready to land in Red Square (we know it can be done) to take Mad Vlad to his seaside residence (or further afield).
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:47
  #9708 (permalink)  
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Notasadminnorasmod
Originally Posted by NutLoose
TB28B ​​​​
Not getting it.
Originally Posted by Chugalug2
T28B :-
Perhaps one could say just the same about you and your way of thinking. Putin is a chancer, just as Adolf was.
Also not getting it.
I have never suggested otherwise. Mr Putin has done damage not just to Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but to a substantial portion of global security's status quo, to include energy security and food security. He needs to be held accountable. (As do his cronies).
Originally Posted by MJ89
Also not getting it.
You all appear to have missed the point that I was trying to make, but perhaps (in your defense) in this case brevity was not the soul of wit.
To be more clear:
No, it is NOT necessary to retaliate to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine with any nuclear response. That is the what Nutty declared, and that is what I disagree with.
A conventional response, by NATO (and others) is sufficient if we take as given that NATO (that is, all 30 governments) have already taken the position that the use of a nuclear weapon in Europe, and the obvious damaging and poisonous side effects, are a sufficient threat to the security of all 30 NATO nations that it requires a response using military force.
While I am not privy to the 'behind closed doors' discussions at that high level, I feel comfortable wagering £1,000 on that being the position that has been agreed in Brussels.
The damage that can be done to Russia (if we look at all 30 NATO nations taken as a whole, Iceland's lack of offensive capability considered), without playing the nuclear card is considerable.
Beyond that, nothing to add.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:01
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I'm with T28B on this, NATO countries are able to take out Russia without NBCs, and I believe that a conventional response is the initial response agreed in houses I have no access to. It will be sufficient if no more WMDs are used and it will give a moral high ground that no money could buy. Not to mention the humiliation to Putin if losing with nukes to the western conventional means.

If Vlad the Mad keeps on throwing buckets of sunshine or chemicals it will be a different story.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:03
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T28B, But what "conventional" response are you suggesting would be rapid and effective enough?

Much as I dislike the thought of it, the only option I see is that any form of nuclear attack by Russia needs to result in an immediate nuclear response by the west. Wasting hours, days months, to mount an effective conventional response will be TOO LATE!
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:10
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The question wasn't at me but NATO has boosted rapid reaction force to 300k troops.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:13
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I disagree, but you know that, a nuclear response is the only response.


On another point, I cannot understand why the borders have not been closed to prevent those fleeing conscription… by the Russians themselves..
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:13
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Originally Posted by Beamr
The question wasn't at me but NATO has boosted rapid reaction force to 300k troops.
I don't understand. What effect would they have on incoming nukes?
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:46
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I'll tiptoe into this discussion, but surely the obliteration by conventional weapons of, say, one of the major Russian Military airbases in Crimea would send an 'equivalent' message? That would surely be within the capabilities of NATO? SLCM, ALCM? I would hope such resources are on a short fuse to respond.

Last edited by MPN11; 24th Sep 2022 at 19:59.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 17:51
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Originally Posted by FUMR
I don't understand. What effect would they have on incoming nukes?
What kind of nuke takes out 300k troops dispersed from mediterranean to Baltic sea?

However, the start point of discussion was that Russia uses a WMD on Ukrainian soil. In that occasion conventional NATO response would be sufficient.

If there are multiple incoming towards western Europe, the western missiles will leave their silos as well, no doubt. In which case there is very little to worry about for any of us.

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Old 24th Sep 2022, 18:12
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I have a theory about the mobilisation, but I hope I am wrong.

During WW2 Russia used to calculate German firepower and times that by the time to cross the ground then throw in that number of troops plus more, so no matter what was fired at them they could not kill them all. That probably is the fate they await, advance at all costs.
I too have a theory...


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Old 24th Sep 2022, 18:25
  #9717 (permalink)  
 
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Beamr, I didn't say one nuke. Note the plural. OK, let's go your route. Russia uses a so-called tactical nuke on the Ukraine. NATO responds by conventional means and it look like they are getting the upper hand. What would Vlad's next move be at that point? Well, I'd bet on more nukes in multiple directions!

Just one nuke aimed at Ukraine would be one too many and, sadly for all of us, could only be countered by an immediate nuclear response. He needs to know that. No more pussy-footing around. A softly softly approach won't work on Vlad.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 18:57
  #9718 (permalink)  
 
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FUMR, I do understand your reasoning, and the second nuke is the one that actually worries me more.as then there will be third. Now the big answer to which I do not have access to is to the question "will the west respond in kind if Russia drops a nuclear bomb on Ukraine".
My bet is on "No".
If the nuclear devices are tossed towards NATO countries its a different ball game.

However, I want to believe that there are sane people in the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces command chain preventing the events discussed.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 19:16
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I am not so sure that even if Putes did decide to launch a sunshine bomb that they would have the ability to deliver it on target.
If the US saw a weapon being removed from the stockpile for delivery by a/c, they would likely have all the intel they need and the likelihood of a preemptive strike is very real. The same is true of a a silo missile / sub or potentially a vehicle based system.
A tactical weapon as far as I recall can be small enough to be delivered by cruise missile or even artillery. Not being well briefed any more on the Rusk threat I would tend to think that going full MAD for a small weapon would not be in NATOs thinking, more likely some serious conventional strikes would be more likely.
I just cannot see the reasoning for Russia to launch a large missile at NATO or Ukraine, that is most certainly not escalate to de-escalate.

As an aside, I feel that the Rusk leadership has taken into account the relatively small protests and will see it blow over. Let the ones who don't want to escape flee the border.
Apart from the few minor scuffles and protests, it would seem that many of the many look quite happy to go, as they have very little opportunities where they are. There may be some Mothers who get rather upset when they get on the waiting list for a new Lads, however the leadership thinks that it can ride that storm for Greater Russia and see splits occur over the winter in Europe.
Come the spring everyone will be fed up and Russia may take a seat a the negotiating table.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 19:46
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SM

Of the many you think are quite happy to go to the slaughter, I wonder how many will surrender at the first opportunity? They may consider it a better option.
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