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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 7th Nov 2022, 12:45
  #11381 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
I think we all know it's not the size of the army, but rather being able to equip it with modern weapons and trained troops that is (are) the critical factor(s). Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger; the oligarchs were allowed free rein to strip wealth from the country and live in villas in Gstaad and have lots of large boats. There is no true understanding in Russia as to where they actually stand in regards to anything, as everyone is lying and the books are cooked. Putin is grasping at straws and the crows are coming home to roost. Seriously, with less than 2% of the global GNP Russia is going to fight all of us? Keep the pressure on, keep supplying arms to the Ukrainians who want their country back, and the rest will fall into place.
I was using 'raise' in the broadest terms - so that includes equipping. Unfortunately, where the russians are concerned, human wave tactics have to be considered - similar to the Korean war - and of course there is the phrase associated with the soviets of 'quality has a quantity all of its own'. I suggest its easier to tool up for 1 million AKs or Mosins or SKS than it is to tool up for 1 million AR-15 variants. And I think the russians would go for that approach.

The West, and increasingly, Ukraine, have high quality equipment - in small numbers (relative terms). As an example, I recently learnt of the ubiquity of 20mm AA cannons in Germany during the Cold War, that seem to have all disappeared. I have to wonder if there will be a pause on the ground, over the winter period where both sides will shift from a battle on the ground to a battle in the factories - after all, economics is a front in any war. Who can outproduce who, and with what. £1xk drones with C4 can take out £xxxk electricity substations made from custom long lead time components too easily not to consider the effect that has on the war on the ground. Shooting down those £1xk drones is now a key task, and they're using systems that cost £xxm to do it - with rounds that are in the £xm price bracket.

I feel, after the GFC, austerity, and covid this may be a closer run thing for the west than many might imagine if the russians can drag out the attacks and attrite enough infrastructure and equipment.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 12:52
  #11382 (permalink)  
 
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More AA medium-range (25 -40 km ) systems received as per Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._52139887.html

Nasams and Aspide - no numbers mentioned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspide
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 12:53
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Originally Posted by fdr
On the subject of whether drones are going to change the way forces are structured in the future, it has the potential to be a factor in most areas,
The US Army force structure has already changed substantially; they retired the Kiowa Warrior in 2013 to explicitly transition the scout / armed recon mission to a mix of Apache and drones.
The US Navy was ahead of them. Over a decade ago they started deploying a new kind of helicopter detachment on their surface combatants: a mix of MH-60R Seahawk and MQ-8 UAV (basically an old Bell 205/Jet Ranger 407 flown remotely with various sensor packages).
Of course the Global Hawk has been working for about 15 years, and the American services have been experimenting with drone swarms and drone swarm counters for about a decade, not to mention the Predator/Reaper units in the USAF.
And the Marines finally, after a quarter of a century of arguing about it, got rid of the tank.
Not sure when the CVBG organic UAV tanker will go live, but I think it's sooner, not later. Last tidbit I had was a stand up of VUQ-10 in October 2021 with four aircraft at Point Mugu, and they appear to have done so.


The change is already happening.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 7th Nov 2022 at 15:46.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 18:17
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Looting of the museums


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 18:52
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You couldn't make this up: a photo of an Ukrainian Su-27 was put as the background on the memorial plaque of a deceased Russian pilot.


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 19:44
  #11386 (permalink)  
 
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This will be of interest to the maritime folks.

P3 dropping a sonar bouy next to a surfaced Russian sub as they prepare a manpad as an exercise to take it down. The P3 does look somewhat vulnerable in all of this, though it’s not a wartime scenario.

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Old 7th Nov 2022, 20:16
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This will be of interest to the maritime folks.
A bit of nostalgia for doing something similar 35 years ago.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 20:41
  #11388 (permalink)  
 
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They’re at it again, Nuke the U.K. to solve their skill at losing the war, as we are responsible for the bridge blah blah blah… husband to that silly mare, Margarita Simonyan, both propagandists, I bet their pillow talk is barrel of laughs.. I’d die before dishonour… don’t worry my dearest I will nuke them first…

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Old 7th Nov 2022, 20:58
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This will be of interest to the maritime folks.

P3 dropping a sonar bouy next to a surfaced Russian sub as they prepare a manpad as an exercise to take it down. The P3 does look somewhat vulnerable in all of this, though it’s not a wartime scenario.

Fake, the flagpole moved, the P-3 orion is real, the shot of the dude with manpads is a archive, its believed the conning tower is a lada class sub. Even if real it would be irrelevent and borei wouldn't be surfaced and no way a P3 would get that close in a real shooting war
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 21:06
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Solovyov telling Russian children to get ready to go fight, big speech mixing bible references and the usual rhetoric, Russia must win because the only other option is there is no point to having a world without Russia in it.

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Old 7th Nov 2022, 21:30
  #11391 (permalink)  
 
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And the irony of him banging on about smouldering ruins and places being littered with corpses if they didn't intervene...... what exactly did they bring to Ukraine but ruins and corpses.......surely the modern Russian youth won't believe any of this garbage
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 21:35
  #11392 (permalink)  
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As a follow on to the Turkish navy now ruling the Black Sea…

TAKE A HIKE: The Russian missile cruiser Varyag & the destroyer Admiral Tributs waited 9 months for Turkish permission to pass the Bosphorus and enter the Black Sea.

Denied passage, they're now making a 10,372 mile trip to the Pacific port of Vladivostok

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...k-sea-accessNO
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 21:42
  #11393 (permalink)  
 
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Working link: Russia withdraws two war ships after Turkey denies Black Sea access
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 21:58
  #11394 (permalink)  
 
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The reason they took out the rail centre in Donetsk, it had the signal control unit located on the 4th floor of the rail services HQ building, that won’t be easy to sort out, the building was gutted.


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 22:05
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Smile

And gone by the evening


Caveat - looking at the pictures I'm not sure the images are recent and could well be from during construction.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 22:42
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Russian pundits now questioning if they actually need areas lost or not taken, Snake Island, Odesa, and Mykolaiv….


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Old 8th Nov 2022, 00:08
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Originally Posted by ORAC
As a follow on to the Turkish navy now ruling the Black Sea…



TAKE A HIKE: The Russian missile cruiser Varyag & the destroyer Admiral Tributs waited 9 months for Turkish permission to pass the Bosphorus and enter the Black Sea.

Denied passage, they're now making a 10,372 mile trip to the Pacific port of Vladivostok

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...k-sea-accessNO
Shades of the battle of Tsushima in 1905! After an epic voyage from Russia around the Cape of Good Hope, across the Indian Ocean and up to Japan the Russians got totally whacked by the Japanese. Seems somehow prophetic as the Russian incompetence, then and now, was amazing. Here's a link to a what happened. Worth a watch...
Part 1, the voyage....

Part 2, the battle....
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Old 8th Nov 2022, 01:29
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The reason they took out the rail centre in Donetsk, it had the signal control unit located on the 4th floor of the rail services HQ building, that won’t be easy to sort out, the building was gutted.
Couldn't we have just sent them some leaves - those always seemed to stop Southern Region from running

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Old 8th Nov 2022, 02:26
  #11399 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements
Couldn't we have just sent them some leaves - those always seemed to stop Southern Region from running
lt reminded me of Von Ryan’s Express where they smash up the signal box to confuse the Germans, but on a whole new level of scale
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Old 8th Nov 2022, 02:32
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Look at the figures, staggering, Ukraine believes 25,000 lost their lives in Mariupol, and the graves keep growing by the thousands….


That’s why the likes of Putin, Laughitoff, all his cronies and the general staff should end their days in pain or swinging by a rope….

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