Originally Posted by
ORAC
Kherson city has been abandoned and looted by the Russian command and civil administration. Reportedly they’ve stuffed it full of conscripts in civil clothes with light weapons to make it a street by street hand-to-hand fight.
Also reportedly, the UAF won’t oblige and will will simply sit outside and starve them out whilst keeping the river crossings closed. Without logistic support the remaining BTGs are collapsing and, without a means of evacuation, their armour should fall into UKR hands.
They’ve set up 3 defensive lines on the left bank and, supposedly, massed artillery to hit the UKR forces as they advance on the right bank. But with longer range artillery the UKR forces can batter them instead - and outflank them from the north and take them from the rear pinning them against the river - again.
Meanwhile……
Russian lines collapsing. That one is sure. Question is now only how (dis-)organized this is going to happen.
Northern Kherson is now one big shooting gallery for the Ukrainian artillery.
That is an interesting state of affairs. Would have been a fair plan, so surprised it is the RuZZians that came up with it. However, it is only good if the Ukrainians had fallen for it, which has not been the case so far. Instead, the positioning of the RuZZian tubes is open for a good old SSAR and satellite look, and some IR scanning, to get a picture of where to return the favour from the extended range that Ukraine now has. Every tube in the swamplands is worthy of some ISR, and then some harassment, they have been getting their rest in long enough. It would have worked if the roles were reversed, Ukraine is just a smarter Special Kherson kind of Cat. All of the left bank tubes will be sitting invitingly within 152mm range of the burbs of Kherson, which is going to be in range mainly of 155mm, and is just deeply inside the M270 ranges for all of their existing munitions.
In other words.... have a look at the ranges... Time for some hi res sat images IR/VIS/SSAR...
The road from Hladkicka to Radens'k and around 5km either side would seem to be worthy of a really good survey. It's nicely in the background, with laterals to disperse, and outside of the flood zone and swamp... gotta be a tempting place to have plonked the tubes amongst the myriad of plastic sheet horticulture enclosures.
Separately, the term
"500's" has come out, may have been before, that seems to cover desertions, probably is going to be a number that Lada avoids, in the Lada 200 series... The "500's" will be the ones that get fragged by their own side, unless they have long johns to put on the barrels.
