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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 6th Nov 2022, 22:05
  #11361 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
When it comes to the Kherson 'withdrawal', I have serious misgivings and see it as a potential Trojan Horse in that it is not at all what it appears to be.

My reasoning, such as it is, is that the Russians want to destroy the UKR military and they have thus far failed to do so. They have then attacked civilians in a fit of rage founded in their own incompetence and weakness - Russia really is a piece of sh!t country with a 3rd world military capability and staggeringly incompetent leaders. Whatever they hoped to achieve by attacking civilian targets has clearly failed - the hatred of Russia and the desire to defeat them is stronger than ever amongst both UKR and it's myriad allies - Putin has quite literally destroyed Russia as it must now be crushed in insignificance for the world to be able to move on..

Russia knows that if it does not defeat the UKR military then is doomed to lose this war (Russia losing is inevitable as the West simply cannot afford any other outcome). So...how does Russia target the UKR military it has so comprehensively failed to beat so far? How about this...'withdraw' from Kherson, knowing that the people moving in will be troops, not civilians. When the city is full of UKR soldiers, then strike. The strike could be massive conventional, but I think not. Given the call for civilians to leave (people Russia considers 'theirs'), I think a massive Chemical attack might be on the cards and fots Russia's playbook - an attempt to really degrade the UKR military whilst appearing to minimize civilian casualties. This is a very over-simplified idea, but Putin is a psychoticially insane narcissist and he thinks like a 6 year old playing with toy soldiers.

We are still just dancing around handbags and waiting for the real party to start - it is absolutely inevitable* that NATO will end up in a full-scale war with Russia. NATO knows this, and is using UKR to degrade Russia as much as possible before that happens.

* If Putin is assassinated, then maybe there is hope for something other than WWIII

I wish there was a single NATO leader with a pair of balls.
Regardless of any Russian or civilian withdrawal there is absolutely no tactical or strategic need for UKR to "take" or occupy Kherson in the short term. Just like dealing with small pockets, it can and should be bypassed in pursuance of a feasible military and political aim: defeat the enemy main force in battle on terms favourable, and having shaped the battlefield.. Outflanked Orcs do not stand. Manoeuvre has been UKR strength, intelligent and flexible junior leadership, patriotic and inspired soldiers. Occupying ALL of their country does not necessarily mean occupying a risky short term trophy. The battle of Kherson has been won. Move on.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 22:12
  #11362 (permalink)  
 
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These are eye openers, 8 months ago they would never have dared to be so vocal, it shows how Russia’s elite are losing their grip of the Country.

Russian TV pundits real that the Black Sea Fleet is now longer effective and that Turkey now “owns” it, so there was / is nothing Russia can do to stop the grain exports.

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Old 6th Nov 2022, 22:23
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Regardless of any Russian or civilian withdrawal there is absolutely no tactical or strategic need for UKR to "take" or occupy Kherson in the short term. Just like dealing with small pockets, it can and should be bypassed in pursuance of a feasible military and political aim: defeat the enemy main force in battle on terms favourable, and having shaped the battlefield.. Outflanked Orcs do not stand. Manoeuvre has been UKR strength, intelligent and flexible junior leadership, patriotic and inspired soldiers. Occupying ALL of their country does not necessarily mean occupying a risky short term trophy. The battle of Kherson has been won. Move on.
The river is the key IMHO, it forms a formidable and holdable defence line for the winter for both sides.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 22:44
  #11364 (permalink)  
 
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First they stole the Fire Engines, then the Ambulances, then the Cranes and now they are stealing the Kiddies train ride!!!

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Old 6th Nov 2022, 22:58
  #11365 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The river is the key IMHO, it forms a formidable and holdable defence line for the winter for both sides.
Good reason for UKR to hold it, not attack it. There are other potential schwerpunkte for them to create.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 23:56
  #11366 (permalink)  
 
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30 min montage of urban combat during the Kupiansk Offensive with the Ukrainian Kraken Unit. Intense stuff.

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Old 7th Nov 2022, 00:42
  #11367 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
When it comes to the Kherson 'withdrawal', I have serious misgivings and see it as a potential Trojan Horse in that it is not at all what it appears to be.

My reasoning, such as it is, is that the Russians want to destroy the UKR military and they have thus far failed to do so. They have then attacked civilians in a fit of rage founded in their own incompetence and weakness - Russia really is a piece of sh!t country with a 3rd world military capability and staggeringly incompetent leaders. Whatever they hoped to achieve by attacking civilian targets has clearly failed - the hatred of Russia and the desire to defeat them is stronger than ever amongst both UKR and it's myriad allies - Putin has quite literally destroyed Russia as it must now be crushed in insignificance for the world to be able to move on..

Russia knows that if it does not defeat the UKR military then is doomed to lose this war (Russia losing is inevitable as the West simply cannot afford any other outcome). So...how does Russia target the UKR military it has so comprehensively failed to beat so far? How about this...'withdraw' from Kherson, knowing that the people moving in will be troops, not civilians. When the city is full of UKR soldiers, then strike. The strike could be massive conventional, but I think not. Given the call for civilians to leave (people Russia considers 'theirs'), I think a massive Chemical attack might be on the cards and fots Russia's playbook - an attempt to really degrade the UKR military whilst appearing to minimize civilian casualties. This is a very over-simplified idea, but Putin is a psychoticially insane narcissist and he thinks like a 6 year old playing with toy soldiers.

We are still just dancing around handbags and waiting for the real party to start - it is absolutely inevitable* that NATO will end up in a full-scale war with Russia. NATO knows this, and is using UKR to degrade Russia as much as possible before that happens.

* If Putin is assassinated, then maybe there is hope for something other than WWIII

I wish there was a single NATO leader with a pair of balls.

I could only see a NATO conflict with russia if Ukr. suffered very significant losses - i.e. were about to capitulate. I don't think we'll see a widespread European war and it'll be fought in Ukraine and the Baltics if there is NATO-russia confrontation. Putin will need to raise an army far larger than it has now to make it to the Western side of Ukraine.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 02:01
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Putin will need to raise an army far larger than it has now to make it to the Western side of Ukraine.
I think we all know it's not the size of the army, but rather being able to equip it with modern weapons and trained troops that is (are) the critical factor(s). Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger; the oligarchs were allowed free rein to strip wealth from the country and live in villas in Gstaad and have lots of large boats. There is no true understanding in Russia as to where they actually stand in regards to anything, as everyone is lying and the books are cooked. Putin is grasping at straws and the crows are coming home to roost. Seriously, with less than 2% of the global GNP Russia is going to fight all of us? Keep the pressure on, keep supplying arms to the Ukrainians who want their country back, and the rest will fall into place.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 06:45
  #11369 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
I think we all know it's not the size of the army, but rather being able to equip it with modern weapons and trained troops that is (are) the critical factor(s). Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger; the oligarchs were allowed free rein to strip wealth from the country and live in villas in Gstaad and have lots of large boats. There is no true understanding in Russia as to where they actually stand in regards to anything, as everyone is lying and the books are cooked. Putin is grasping at straws and the crows are coming home to roost. Seriously, with less than 2% of the global GNP Russia is going to fight all of us? Keep the pressure on, keep supplying arms to the Ukrainians who want their country back, and the rest will fall into place.
That was less than 2% before the sanctions, and before blowing up his own economy, including showing the relative merit of acquisition of Russian arms. Within the federation, the Moscow-St Petersburg corridor has about,.... not much for he federations total GNP. Oil and Gas comes from other states in the south and east, both regions that have merits in removing themselves from the central govt of the Kremlin, if there is a loss of the force factor. Food production, is predominately in the southern regions of the federation, there is some but not a majority in Moscows geographic area. Manufacturing is still distributed out as far as the Urals, and that is outside of Moscows state. If the rest of the federation looked at the agreement of federation, they can readily consider voting with their feet and starting up an new defensive and economic structure without the Moscovites. That is something to imagine anyway. That would leave Moscow and st Petersburg as a great haven for oligarchs to retire in, other than the fact that the residual GNP would be less than 10% of their current one. Would anyone really worry about Russia at that point? The violence around there Federation has been predominately caused by Moscow, time for the rest of the federation to look to better solutions than being Vlad's lackey.


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 06:50
  #11370 (permalink)  
 
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Mikhail Vasilyev has been smote by the real god of war


Mikhail Vasilyev Russian orthodox priest, has died in Ukraine.

He is famous for telling women who didn't want to send their sons to war that they should have had more sons. "

Social media chatter said he was visiting soldiers to boost morale, when a HIMARS strike hit within 3 meters, killing him.


Plus its been reported that war gonzo has required a partial leg amputation after standing on a butterfly mine
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 09:10
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Originally Posted by unmanned_droid
I don't think we'll see a widespread European war and it'll be fought in Ukraine and the Baltics if there is NATO-russia confrontation. Putin will need to raise an army far larger than it has now to make it to the Western side of Ukraine.
I was also wondering if @Baldeep is witnessing the same Russian Army as the rest of us is. Bar a few Cruise missiles hitting some militarily irrelevant stuff, I can't see Russia's Military being able to confront any modern Armed Forces. And this would have to come on top of their misery in Ukraine where they are on the retreat (no, not a tactical one, that has been genuine). They would be wept off in due course. Ain't gonn'a happen.
Any use of Nukes/Chems by them would be 'defensive' in the sense of slowing down defeat/negotiating better T&C's as long as they still have something to negotiate. In there lies the real danger of an 'accident'.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 09:41
  #11372 (permalink)  
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RUSI - Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defence weapons and western countries should send advanced fighter jets including F-16s….

“The idea that sending Himars and 155 howitzers is less escalatory than supplying Ukraine with fighter aircraft which it couldn’t possibly sustainably operate inside Russian airspace is not credible”.….

The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence

New RUSI Special Report based on fieldwork explains:
- How Russia's air force failed thus far
- Why it still poses a serious danger
- Why Western aid must now prioritise Ukrainian air defence

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...ts-air-defence

The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 09:49
  #11373 (permalink)  
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I’d be interested to hear how they think the AFU are managing to do that in occupied territory…

Russians are going to blow up the Kakhovka HPP dam.

According to the General Staff, the occupiers ordered the residents of Beryslav to leave the city by November 10.

The invaders call the main reason for the evacuation "the undermining of the Kakhov dam by the AFU."





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Old 7th Nov 2022, 10:18
  #11374 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I’d be interested to hear how they think the AFU are managing to do that in occupied territory…



Russians are going to blow up the Kakhovka HPP dam.

According to the General Staff, the occupiers ordered the residents of Beryslav to leave the city by November 10.

The invaders call the main reason for the evacuation "the undermining of the Kakhov dam by the AFU."



ORAC, that's just how good the Ukrainians are, they can do these things... Does count as incomprehensible though yet seems to be in keeping with Russian logic which goes something like::

"da; our crack troops and equipment got clobbered, so our plan of attack is to bring in raw geriatrics and the infirm, give them 1892's, withhold body armour, food and water, and then force them to the front, where we will go red on red to achieve the [quote] 60%[unquote] own goals. Our piece d' resistance shall be to win hearts and minds that have been lost through murder and atrocities, by firing missiles at the general population, is good, this plan, nyet?"

On the subject of whether drones are going to change the way forces are structured in the future, it has the potential to be a factor in most areas, the following video is the consequence of having good forward observation and accurate arty gun laying systems. It changes the risks of putting any potential target in range of someone with wheels, a smart phone and a quad copter, when they are supported by indirect fire. When the major targets are being routinely hit by accurate fire, and the other team is able to quite frequently hit planet earth, and for small targets down to the guys helmet in the foxhole, individual packages are dropped, seems that the whole concept of who wants to play in these sandpits is going to be up for review. The Schlieffen Plan and similar war plans would be getting covered in red crosscuts over most of its recipe at this time one would guess. The attack helicopter has taken a beating, the KA-52 is up there in capability, and they have lost 1/3rd of the total available fleet so far or a touch over. The SU-25 seems to have it's moments, they lose some, but they may have better survivability than the helos in this particular conflict. Maybe the A-10 remains relevant...



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Old 7th Nov 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by uxb99
The only problem I have with this is how are they intercepting a mobile phone transmission?
I worked in telecoms and mobile phone signals are encrypted. Very difficult to intercept and decrypt. Not impossible but very difficult.
Surely this is what NSA and GCHQ do all day as their normal operations ? If one believes routine press reporting (and noted Ppruners referencing black helicopters ), much of their work is done by simply capturing key-words in phone conversations, which obviously relies on listening to these conversations in clear.

Originally Posted by ORAC
RUSI - Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defence weapons and western countries should send advanced fighter jets including F-16s….

“The idea that sending Himars and 155 howitzers is less escalatory than supplying Ukraine with fighter aircraft which it couldn’t possibly sustainably operate inside Russian airspace is not credible”.….
Where would these fighters be based ? If in Ukraine, who would maintain them and where are the trained pilots (A10 excepted ) ? If not in Ukraine, which countries would host them, given the risk of Russian attack and the possible (but not certain ) risk of invoking NATO clause 5. Presumably, because of this, it would require unanimous NATO agreement at governmental level to initiate such a programme.
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 10:30
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
30 min montage of urban combat during the Kupiansk Offensive with the Ukrainian Kraken Unit. Intense stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVvg...#1054;"KRAKEN"
Interesting mix of weapons in use.

Also, note to self: if you get cornered, don't hide in the privy (how many rounds did that guy take?)
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 10:44
  #11377 (permalink)  
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"He wants to break the Ukrainians not at the front line, where that’s not proving possible, but by breaking the West's will to support them.

The weak link in this war, potentially, is us."
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Old 7th Nov 2022, 10:52
  #11378 (permalink)  
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Where would these fighters be based ? If in Ukraine, who would maintain them and where are the trained pilots (A10 excepted ) ? If not in Ukraine, which countries would host them, given the risk of Russian attack and the possible (but not certain ) risk of invoking NATO clause 5. Presumably, because of this, it would require unanimous NATO agreement at governmental level to initiate such a programme.
Nothing to do with NATO, any more than the various European nations already providing arms, including the UK. Therefore no NATO agreement required - which is good, otherwise Orban would have vetoed everything delivered so far.

Congress has already provided several hundred million dollars to train UKR pilots and ground crew - numerous sources indicate that many are already in training at various bases. Plenty of bases in western Ukraine where they are still successfully flying missions using their SU-24/25s etc.

Also plenty of trained European ground crew who, I am sure, would be more than willing to sign up and help service and turn them - routine NATO training to perform turnarounds of other NATO types. Maintenance and repair could be done in Poland or elsewhere.

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Old 7th Nov 2022, 11:29
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Hitting the Russian line at night, does not appear to be any return fire?


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Old 7th Nov 2022, 11:49
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It seems the Russians keep shooting themselves in the foot, they watch the Railway Admin Building burn down because previously they destroyed the water infrastucture so cannot put it out.


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