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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Oct 2022, 18:55
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It could of course all be it a counter bluff to divert attention away from the Donbas or Kherson region.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 19:41
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BREAKING: Employees at the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations have received weapons from the MoD with the task of "maintaining order and protecting the country in the event of mass riots or armed conflict.", head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations - Readovka
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 19:44
  #10603 (permalink)  
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It is increasingly likely that a joint contingent of Russian/Belarusian forces are preparing some sort of offensive operation along the border with northern Ukraine.

Note the new tactical markings on a large majority of these vehicles.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 19:48
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Originally Posted by ORAC
BREAKING: Employees at the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations have received weapons from the MoD with the task of "maintaining order and protecting the country in the event of mass riots or armed conflict.", head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations - Readovka
Unless we are very ill-informed this is either sabre rattling, or another precursor to a second front. If the latter, will the Bela's fight, can they tolerate an early severe bashing?
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 19:55
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Originally Posted by ORAC
It is increasingly likely that a joint contingent of Russian/Belarusian forces are preparing some sort of offensive operation along the border with northern Ukraine.

Note the new tactical markings on a large majority of these vehicles.
Whilst I can see that in his current mood, Putin would have no compunction about throwing Belarussian units into a futile fight to relieve pressure - both military and media - on other operations, I find it enormously hard to believe that Lukachenko would go along with this unless his arm were twisted so far up his back, it threatened to tear off. From everything I have read, any involvement would seem certain to lead to his downfall.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:07
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If the Russians & Belarussians do decide to mount some form of offensive from the north, what will (can?) they do differently this time around? Its still the same forested terrain, they've proven themselves to be incapable of combined arms manoeuvre warfare, their air force is ineffective, and the Ukes are way better prepared, trained and equipped than they were the last time. This would be a desperate act.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:20
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
If the Russians & Belarussians do decide to mount some form of offensive from the north, what will (can?) they do differently this time around? Its still the same forested terrain, they've proven themselves to be incapable of combined arms manoeuvre warfare, their air force is ineffective, and the Ukes are way better prepared, trained and equipped than they were the last time. This would be a desperate act.
From Putrid's point of view, worth a punt. From Uke's point of view, need to apply a savage rebuff, eye-watering and brief.

As an aside, have the heroic defenders of Hostomel airfield received due recognition?
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:32
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Airspace over Stavanger and Haugesund airports in Norway has been closed due to drone observations - VG
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:40
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I canít see the Belarus troop moves as anything except a feint. They only have trucks and light vehicles and are still shipping their armour to the Russians in Donetsk.

Against combat hardened Ukrainian troops with HIMARS, precision artillery, Javelin, artillery and numerous other NATO equipment it would be a bloodbath - especially since the advent of rasputitsa means theyíll be limited to using the limited number of main roads.


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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:50
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Ukrainian ATACMS?

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 20:54
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Portugal donating 6 Kamovís after sanctions grounded them.

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 21:25
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Unless we are very ill-informed this is either sabre rattling, or another precursor to a second front. If the latter, will the Bela's fight, can they tolerate an early severe bashing?
That covers it, excluding "Mars Attacks!", or "Romulan mining ships.." Vlad's "Death Star" turned out to be moth eaten and well rather hollow. Lukashenko's adoration of the gnome places Lukashenko's soft bits in a bit of a vise. He didn't want to upset his constituents, most of which don't exist anyway, and since February, the gnomes failings have become rather evident. The potential for grumblings from within are understated; Lukashenko's oft mooted proposal for Belarus to join a more perfect yada yada with Russia, and for Lukashenko to become PM for life would now cause a revolution within Belarus, where in February and March there was more than civil disobedience to Russia using Belarus infrastructure to undertake their ill considered actions.

The dynamics of an attack out of Belarus will be different to Feb if the maths done by Lukashenko are misapplied in his anxiety. He has a higher probability of reaching retirement if he remains inside his border, and becoming "PM" (first groveller) under an expanded Russia carries risks of ending up as pavement pizza. Out of Belarus, there will be fewer rotten tyres, more gas, but less arty support and little PGMs. They will face orders more ATWs, MANPADS, and are facing 4-5 months of being stuck to highways. Off-roading, apart from the mud in progress, Russia has gifted large numbers of mines to keep visitors off the grass.

Belarus: At the USSR fire sale, Belarus had an impressive array of gear going back to WW-II vintage, and extending to a huge number of T-72's and various numbers of T-80's. All up, in line with NATO concerns of the Cold War. Reports from 2018 indicate a fair number of T-72s and a few upgrade T-72B3's. They had enough tanks to help Russia with resupply for Russian losses. Since 2004 Belarus has been under sanctions from the EU, these were increased in 2020, and then again in 2022. From 2004 onwards the EU has also assisted in developing a system to support an outbreak of democracy in Belarus, so that the public would receive demonstrable improvements in a timely manner (apparently someone was thinking back to W. Paul Bremer and the disaster that arose in Iraq from his administration of Iraq post invasion. Winning wars doesn't win the peace...). The last dictator is well aware that his popularity is about on par with those that take a pooch for a walk in a public park and don't take a doggy bag (there could be a market for those bags exported to the Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, it's going to be a Jenny Craig winter. An overwhelming majority of Belarus citizens have little to no affection for Vlad, those that have joined the fight have joined on Ukraine's side. Lukashenko faces the same problem as Vlad, but on steroids; his population don't like him, and they don't want to go in the direction proposed by his ego. Belarus citizens would like to be an independent nation, as in, they would like everyone to abide with the treaty that was signed in 1991, please, and stop the nonsense. A Vlad finger puppet is not going to have more luck with mobilisation than Vlad had, the probability that it backfires and Big Al gets a heave ho out a 6th floor window by his own guards as a traitor to Belarus is a higher probability than the public of a country wanting to be completely independent of Russia accedes to helping Russia conduct a criminal operation in another country fighting for the freedoms that Belarus citizens yearn for.

Not seeing that Russia gets meaningful manpower out of Belarus, and if he does, they are likely to join the other side promptly. On equipment, Vlad has already emptied a substantial amount of the cupboard, which destabilises Big Al's last dictator shingle.

Counter battery fire may be complained at, but Big Al's not in a position to do anything about it, and he brings that risk along though his Jeff Dunham auditions. He will need more than his standing security forces and military to keep his own population "in Czech", Belarussians are pretty proudly not Russian, a point that Big Al made loudly in 1992, and seems in need of reminding.


Last edited by fdr; 16th Oct 2022 at 23:37.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 22:09
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Warning aviation content

What is this?

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 22:22
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Originally Posted by magyarflyer
What is this?
Air Tahiti Nui or whatever paint job is applied today, will need to keep their pax windows down. Vlad's confidence in precision shown, target area is pretty much limited to somewhere on planet earth, about as accurate as planning for Mir re-entry.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 23:37
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Images from the Russian training ground shootings.

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Old 17th Oct 2022, 00:05
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Russian funded Building Boom in Ukraine?

Russia is busy pulling the frayed ends of the security blanket that is the memory of the "glory" of the USSR. [Spoiler: USSR Glory was a Potemkin Village] In the meantime, Ukraine is busy removing all reminders of Russia and the violence that is all Russia offers to the world at large. Take away the weapons, and al that Russia is left with is fond memories of 200 years dead composers, writers that usually spent time in gulags for inspiration, and a population that prefers to live anywhere else but Russia. Could be the weather... could be the smell from the head of the fish. In the meantime, both Ukraine and the vast majority of Belarus want to be a part of the concept of a Europe that exists to it's West, not the kleptocracy to it's East.

And Ukraine in the meantime gets on with recovery from the nightmare that is Russia. I hope that the rest of the world will support the cost of this building boom as being funded from Vlad's mates ill gotten gains. That would be poetic justice.



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Old 17th Oct 2022, 00:06
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Images from the Russian training ground shootings.

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Old 17th Oct 2022, 00:24
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Sniper takes two shots at the car - the second goes through the windscreen, hits the dash and the driver's body armour. Driver OK.




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Old 17th Oct 2022, 00:27
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LOL

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Old 17th Oct 2022, 00:32
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Lt Col Andrei Lapin although, maybe demoted posthumously.

I guess it is not surprising that a bunch of criminals that disregard every other aspect of the rule of law, and the rules of war would also disrespect another persons religion.
29 of the 30 may just be the consequence of Vlad's HR employment campaign, the 30th, the Lt Col, may care to take cultural sensitivity training in the afterlife, or wear better body armour next time. The late light Col may be a candidate for 2022's Darwin awards, he would have at least 29 families that would vote for that .

P.S.: This issue will not be viewed well in some parts of the globe. Right now, Iran is coping under sanctions, but assisting Russia, in a war that does not benefit Iran directly at all. The most Iran gets out of this is, well, not much. In the background, Iran had offered to increase production, which has generally been ignored. Iran now has an internal problem that needs either morale improvement by more beatings, or a change of course. There is a time where Iran's best interests are served best by normalising their status, and nothing would be quite as savoury as whacking Vlad around the ears at the same time. There is an obvious need for an overhaul of the processes that the UN undertakes as they have eroded their own relevance to the point of being a kegger party, not a universal means to protect the rights of peoples and countries. There is more opportunity for Iran with normalisation than cosying up to Vlad.

https://www.uawire.org/religious-con...-near-belgorod

Last edited by fdr; 17th Oct 2022 at 01:44. Reason: P.S.:
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