Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

Possible supply of SAMP-T SAM from France and Italy to protect from cruise missiles etc..

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-ex...taly-zelensky/

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-expects-the-supply-of-samp-t-sam-from-france-and-italy-zelensky/

[Wokkafans]

"Incendiary thermite GRAD rounds have been recorded over Nikopol."

https://twitter.com/WarfareReports/s...fb5dUNNQt8ZJlA

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/157...fb5dUNNQt8ZJlA

Twitter

Twitter

[NutLoose]

So basically new General, same playbook and each new General inherits diminishing assets.

Petro Poroshenko and volunteers have purchased privately a bunch of FV105 Sultan, FV103 Spartan and FV104 Samaritan CVR(T) on the recommendation of the Ukrainian military to go to Ukraine.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/petro-poro...es-in-britain/

Russia is transferring kamikaze drones to Belarus, and Ukraine is beefing up the defence in the area.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-is-...ammunition-di/

..

[Diff Tail Shim]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

So basically new General, same playbook and each new General inherits diminishing assets.

No shit sherlock.

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...d-war-00061275

The U.S. ties itself closer to Kyiv as top officials see echoes of Cuba

[Beamr]

Remember the mommy who bought a sniper rifle to take out the RuSSian invaders? Wasn't just hot air, shes at the front.
Must admire her. And repeat my initial thought from January that how can Russia win against this kind of devotion. Well, they can't!

Twitter

https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1579856059271086080

[Herod]

Must admire her. And repeat my initial thought from January that how can Russia win against this kind of devotion. Well, they can't!

Agreed. Do you remember the picture very early on, of an elderly lady giving packets of sunflower seeds to Russian troops? "Put these in your pocket, and when you are dead and buried our National Flower will rise from your corpse"

[ORAC]

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon...report-2022-10

Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/s...ws-jlS9AGIGYjQ

Meanwhile on Russian state TV: pundits and lawmakers discuss how Moscow could best exploit Elon Musk and his proposals.

[Zionstrat2]

Shades of Battle of Britain?

Long time lurker, very rare poster so please forgive if I'm posting in the wrong place.

And possible I've missed this thought before, but as horrible as civilian deaths are, wasn't this one of the reasons the Brits won the Battle of Britain?

I haven't read my history in years, but if I remember correctly the Germans accidentally bombed London, Churchill called for a retaliatory attack on Berlin and Hitler lost it and targeted civilians instead of airfields. As a matter of luck, the RAF had been on the edge of losing, but this took the pressure off, it gave them time to to rebuild and ultimately destroy the luftwaffe.

Again, targeting civilians is despicable, however, isn't this a considerable strategic waste of limited munitions? Perhaps Ukrainian civilians can help win the war by digging extremely deep bunkers and then daring Putin to attack?

[Rockie_Rapier]

An interesting take from Gary Karparov in Spiegel

https://www.spiegel.de/international...2-6f71525486ea

Kasparov: Putin’s military and economic capacities will have been exhausted by spring. He’ll run out of munitions by April at the latest and the economy won’t even be able to cover the basic needs of the Russians. That is why Putin is in a hurry. He is trying to establish a good starting point for negotiations.

Kasparov: We know from Russia's history that every military and geopolitical defeat leads to dramatic changes at home, whether it was the Crimean War in 1855, the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, the stalemate in World War I or the end of the Cold War in 1989. But this defeat could be the worst of all because it will be very visible. It will be like 1945 in Germany.

Kasparov: If we don't manage to return to Europe, we will become a satellite state of China. Beijing is just waiting for Russia to collapse. Demographically and economically, that is the biggest threat to our existence. According to official Chinese historiography, nearly half of Russia's territory is actually China.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Zionstrat2

Long time lurker, very rare poster so please forgive if I'm posting in the wrong place.

And possible I've missed this thought before, but as horrible as civilian deaths are, wasn't this one of the reasons the Brits won the Battle of Britain?

I haven't read my history in years, but if I remember correctly the Germans accidentally bombed London, Churchill called for a retaliatory attack on Berlin and Hitler lost it and targeted civilians instead of airfields. As a matter of luck, the RAF had been on the edge of losing, but this took the pressure off, it gave them time to to rebuild and ultimately destroy the luftwaffe.

Again, targeting civilians is despicable, however, isn't this a considerable strategic waste of limited munitions? Perhaps Ukrainian civilians can help win the war by digging extremely deep bunkers and then daring Putin to attack?

Beating up the natives didn't work at Masada, didn't work at Guernica, and didn't work in London. Sure as heck won't work against a proud bunch that Ukraine has presented to the world. They are apparently braver than Mr Musk. Pretty despicable to provide a service and then deny that same service. Would think that Tesla would be worthy of secondary sanctions, at least at the personal level.

Employing PGM to go kill a playground is hardly going to help Putin save his troops (slaves) in the field. The Russian troops best outcome arises in leaving Russia as approximately 3 times the number intended to be conscripted have done. They may not be welcome back in Russia under the current regime, but they will be more likely to be alive than being in the Putin pack. Curiously, as Russian forces start to run out of small arms ammo, and have been on bolt action rifles for some time, it is interesting that they cannot make payroll for their valiant conscripts, who are being paid slave wages anyway. That is the underlying state of the union, and that is what Musk is now assisting, along with OPEC.

Allowing Russia to gain ground in Ukraine leads towards greater risk, not less, so Musk needs to go think his problem through again, as he is literally dead wrong.

IMHO

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Herod

Agreed. Do you remember the picture very early on, of an elderly lady giving packets of sunflower seeds to Russian troops? "Put these in your pocket, and when you are dead and buried our National Flower will rise from your corpse"

That was absolute gold, sounds like an omen at this point. Maybe she is a witch?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Beamr

That was absolute gold, sounds like an omen at this point. Maybe she is a witch?

Originally Posted by Herod

Agreed. Do you remember the picture very early on, of an elderly lady giving packets of sunflower seeds to Russian troops? "Put these in your pocket, and when you are dead and buried our National Flower will rise from your corpse"

Something like this?

[mahogany bob]

FDR

The justification to not support Ukraine in the no fly area was morally bankrupt at that time, and was shown to be absolute nonsense.

HMMM ?

I flew in 4 NFZs - Kosova,GW1,GW2 and Afghanistan - and saw the enormous effort involved.
Air superiority was achieved relatively easily against a relatively weak enemy.
Taking on Russia however would have been a totally different ball game ! Airfields and radar units inside Russia would have to have been attacked and suppressed risking major escalation into all out war!
Did we really want to risk that?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Remember the mommy who bought a sniper rifle to take out the RuSSian invaders? Wasn't just hot air, shes at the front.
Must admire her. And repeat my initial thought from January that how can Russia win against this kind of devotion. Well, they can't!

https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1579856059271086080

I can see a musical coming on...

Grannie Annie Get Your Gun..

[fdr]

Originally Posted by mahogany bob

FDR

The justification to not support Ukraine in the no fly area was morally bankrupt at that time, and was shown to be absolute nonsense.

HMMM ?

I flew in 4 NFZs - Kosova,GW1,GW2 and Afghanistan - and saw the enormous effort involved. Air superiority was achieved relatively easily against a relatively weak enemy.
Taking on Russia however would have been a totally different ball game ! Airfields and radar units inside Russia would have to have been attacked and suppressed risking major escalation into all out war!
Did we really want to risk that?

The ROE in Viet Nam was nearly impossible for the troops in the field or air, however, what Russia was likely to do and what they eventually have done was understood. The Ukrainians still need air support, whether materiel only or by assistance in the theatre. The Ukrainians have shown that attacking the Russians at their own bases where they are specifically striking military targets had not been escalatory. Russia has used up their conventional forces to an extent and now risks having inadequate force to retain a daily more assertive set of vassal states. Putin will go where he pleases, but we have bent over backward to not offend him in the early days of this, with an unstated expectation that he would defeat Ukraine readily, and yet, Ukraine shattered his army, damaged his navy, and the airforce beat their feet to get out of a lethal area. I have no desire to see our crews harmed in this action, but they would make a difference, and the risk is already baked into this cake of Vlad's recipe. Ukraine needs all the anti air capability that can be provided, and if someone is shooting over the fence, their action is still criminal and under the UN Charter an ROE that gives defence for their own land or defence provided by collective groups is not only legal, it is the intent of the Charter.

Russia is not likely to attack NATO any time soon, unless they can conscript a bunch of Girl Guides, and then they would have to bring their own cookies, slingshots uniform, and drive their own Lada's. They would be doing it for love of Putin, as the meagre salary for the troops stopped being paid some time back. It there are F-35's and F-22s on site, is there a risk of engaging RuAF aircraft? Sure, that is the intent; If Russia wants to attack a sovereign country, that is what we presume our response will be. Being worried over what Putin will do next merely emboldens him and the next guys that emulate him, the Putin wannabes.

If we are concerned that our own troops involvement is a bridge too far, then how about getting the same gear on loan to the Ukrainians and those crew that are prepared to go do an eagle squadron for the closest thing to a just cause we have seen in the last 75 years.

[NutLoose]

What a coincidence, the night after Russia struck a substation in Ukraine, one in Belogrod region should burst into flames, they are reporting water issues too.. Appears to have been shelled..

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Shebekino?src=hashtag_click

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Shebekino?src=hashtag_click

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by fdr

Something like this?

That'd be the Netflix version polished for Disney+ viewed on Nickelodoeon.

Reality from the early days of the invasion:

(344) Ukrainian woman offers seeds to Russian soldiers so 'sunflowers grow when they die' - YouTube

And truth to her words, composed and confident soldiers like that one no longer roam the UKR land. In a strange twist the video compared to the recent ones illustrates massively the decomposition of the invader's force. Pun intended.

[ORAC]

One day’s training consisting of firing 1-3 magazines of ammo. Assigned arbitrary roles without knowing how to do the job - and given obsolete uniforms…

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...ws-jlS9AGIGYjQ

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by FlightDetent

Reality from the early days of the invasion:

I had entirely forgotten that she really DID say "from now on you will be cursed". Witchcraft!