Originally Posted by
langleybaston
Unless we are very ill-informed this is either sabre rattling, or another precursor to a second front. If the latter, will the Bela's fight, can they tolerate an early severe bashing?
That covers it, excluding "Mars Attacks!", or "Romulan mining ships.." Vlad's "Death Star" turned out to be moth eaten and well rather hollow. Lukashenko's adoration of the gnome places Lukashenko's soft bits in a bit of a vise. He didn't want to upset his constituents, most of which don't exist anyway, and since February, the gnomes failings have become rather evident. The potential for grumblings from within are understated; Lukashenko's oft mooted proposal for Belarus to join a more perfect yada yada with Russia, and for Lukashenko to become PM for life would now cause a revolution within Belarus, where in February and March there was more than civil disobedience to Russia using Belarus infrastructure to undertake their ill considered actions.
The dynamics of an attack out of Belarus will be different to Feb if the maths done by Lukashenko are misapplied in his anxiety. He has a higher probability of reaching retirement if he remains inside his border, and becoming "PM" (first groveller) under an expanded Russia carries risks of ending up as pavement pizza. Out of Belarus, there will be fewer rotten tyres, more gas, but less arty support and little PGMs. They will face orders more ATWs, MANPADS, and are facing 4-5 months of being stuck to highways. Off-roading, apart from the mud in progress, Russia has gifted large numbers of mines to keep visitors off the grass.
Belarus: At the USSR fire sale, Belarus had an impressive array of gear going back to WW-II vintage, and extending to a huge number of T-72's and various numbers of T-80's. All up, in line with NATO concerns of the Cold War. Reports from 2018 indicate a fair number of T-72s and a few upgrade T-72B3's. They had enough tanks to help Russia with resupply for Russian losses. Since 2004 Belarus has been under sanctions from the EU, these were increased in 2020, and then again in 2022. From 2004 onwards the EU has also assisted in developing a system to support an outbreak of democracy in Belarus, so that the public would receive demonstrable improvements in a timely manner (apparently someone was thinking back to W. Paul Bremer and the disaster that arose in Iraq from his administration of Iraq post invasion. Winning wars doesn't win the peace...). The last dictator is well aware that his popularity is about on par with those that take a pooch for a walk in a public park and don't take a doggy bag (there could be a market for those bags exported to the Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, it's going to be a Jenny Craig winter. An overwhelming majority of Belarus citizens have little to no affection for Vlad, those that have joined the fight have joined on Ukraine's side. Lukashenko faces the same problem as Vlad, but on steroids; his population don't like him, and they don't want to go in the direction proposed by his ego. Belarus citizens would like to be an independent nation, as in, they would like everyone to abide with the treaty that was signed in 1991, please, and stop the nonsense. A Vlad finger puppet is not going to have more luck with mobilisation than Vlad had, the probability that it backfires and Big Al gets a heave ho out a 6th floor window by his own guards as a traitor to Belarus is a higher probability than the public of a country wanting to be completely independent of Russia accedes to helping Russia conduct a criminal operation in another country fighting for the freedoms that Belarus citizens yearn for.
Not seeing that Russia gets meaningful manpower out of Belarus, and if he does, they are likely to join the other side promptly. On equipment, Vlad has already emptied a substantial amount of the cupboard, which destabilises Big Al's last dictator shingle.
Counter battery fire may be complained at, but Big Al's not in a position to do anything about it, and he brings that risk along though his Jeff Dunham auditions. He will need more than his standing security forces and military to keep his own population "in Czech", Belarussians are pretty proudly not Russian, a point that Big Al made loudly in 1992, and seems in need of reminding.