Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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US believes they are going to attempt to cut off supplies through Poland
Poland has been transferring military equipment to the border in response.
Lithuania also are deploying to the border.
Poland has been transferring military equipment to the border in response.
Lithuania also are deploying to the border.
"10 Iranians killed in Ukrainian strikes - report
The report comes as American and Ukrainian officials warn that Iranians are training Russians to use Iranian drones in Crimea."
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720252
The report comes as American and Ukrainian officials warn that Iranians are training Russians to use Iranian drones in Crimea."
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720252
US believes they are going to attempt to cut off supplies through Poland
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/statu...65075973308416
Poland has been transferring military equipment to the border in response.
https://twitter.com/herjans56/status...63681467895810
Lithuania also are deploying to the border.
https://twitter.com/hasanwaseem110/s...65424259891200
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/statu...65075973308416
Poland has been transferring military equipment to the border in response.
https://twitter.com/herjans56/status...63681467895810
Lithuania also are deploying to the border.
https://twitter.com/hasanwaseem110/s...65424259891200
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The Ukraine - Poland border is rather long. I reckon, RU has neither the capacity nor the ability to close it off. Does RU still have a credible airborne force left? For how long are they trying to take Bakhmut now? How much longer can they defend Cherson? RU has quite a few issues. Oh, and winter is coming.
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A few more overtly political posts got moved to the JB thread which Uncle Fred started.
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A few more overtly political posts got moved to the JB thread which Uncle Fred started.
Please take your interesting tidbits of that flavor to that thread.
The Ukraine - Poland border is rather long. I reckon, RU has neither the capacity nor the ability to close it off. Does RU still have a credible airborne force left? For how long are they trying to take Bakhmut now? How much longer can they defend Cherson? RU has quite a few issues. Oh, and winter is coming.
Ukraine has already reminded us that surprise has a quality all of it's own... and the last 8 months of Vlad's rat cunning of setting a low bar and failing to achieve that target, may put the Ukrainians in a false sense of security, which seems hard to imagine while the weather forecast is cool with a hint of cruise missiles.
The threat is an advance that comes down the western side of Ukraines border with Poland, putting pressure on the Ukraine supply line. Nothing recently indicates Russia has the force, logistics or command capability to do much, but they could get lucky if given half a chance.
Extended discussion in the spoiler. T28B
Spoiler
The requirement to defend Ukraine from cruise missiles, and direct attack drones arises due the above failure of representatives at the UN. If they did their job, then Iran would have an issue with the supply of materiel to an aggressor nation. Then we wouldn't be working on reinvention of means to bring down Zeppelins once more...
Edward De Bono, on simplicity, would suggest that Poland putting a defensive trip line of Polish defence in the western districts of Ukraine would be the cleanest political situation for Poland, NATO and the rest of the world. Then it is up to Lukashenko to be the aggressor of Ukraine, to which Poland has the right under Art. 51 to assist Ukraine. IMHO.
Last edited by T28B; 22nd Oct 2022 at 13:19. Reason: borderline JB fodder
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Meanwhile, a little further south, near the Romanian/Ukrainian border..
The 101st US Airborne Division, the Band of Brothers, has been deployed in Romania next to the border of Ukraine at the Black Sea and is ready for combat.
The 101st US Airborne Division, the Band of Brothers, has been deployed in Romania next to the border of Ukraine at the Black Sea and is ready for combat.
Hmm 101st Airborne vs Wagner prison division. Should be 30 nil at half time.
As the saying goes, if you ever find yourself in a fair fight, you didn't plan it properly
As the saying goes, if you ever find yourself in a fair fight, you didn't plan it properly
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The Ukraine - Poland border is rather long. I reckon, RU has neither the capacity nor the ability to close it off. Does RU still have a credible airborne force left? For how long are they trying to take Bakhmut now? How much longer can they defend Cherson? RU has quite a few issues. Oh, and winter is coming.
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RED LINE crossed? Russia appears to be using chemical warfare in Ukraine.
Poland has every right under the sun to be assisting Ukraine in accordance with UN Charter Art. 51. If they choose to take on Belarus directly if any of the Polish personnel happen to be injured, harmed or get a stubbed toe, ingrown toe nail, then they may do so. There is nothing to stop them assisting a nation that is being attacked in contravention of the UN Charter, which Russia has done. Belarus had no right to assist Russia in the invasion of Ukraine in February, that was a low act. Iran is also in the same boat, they are assisting an aggressor state, and that breaches their basic obligations under the Charter.
Now, if Poland is fighting on Ukraine soil, they are not involving NATO directly. If Belarus conducts armed aggression on Polish soil, then Art. 5 of NATO applies, same for all of the Baltic states.
The tentative response of the West emboldened Russia from day one, we own that bit. There is no escalation under the UN Charter in aiding and assisting Ukraine in Ukraine. That is what Art. 51 expects to be undertaken by nations which are signatories to the UN Charter, where there is clear evidence of one nation failing to abide with the Charter, [Russia], and in the absence of substantive action by the UNSC.
It remains an affront to common decency that the UNSC members do not invoke Art.27(3), as it already removes the right of Russia to vote on any SC matter other than procedural matters, to which tehy also have no veto capability.
It is our governments that fail to have the fortitude to comply with the UN Charter, and in the meantime Ukrainians are dying every minute that our teams fiddle. The Russian conscripts, that are not being paid by Putin, not being fed, provided proper clothing, anything meaningful in body armor, but may get heating from thermal cameras.... No one is being helped by this disaster being protracted by our worthless representatives in the UN. It is not just my position that the UN fails to apply Art. 27(3) correctly, it is the UNSC History library that contends the same.
Now, if Poland is fighting on Ukraine soil, they are not involving NATO directly. If Belarus conducts armed aggression on Polish soil, then Art. 5 of NATO applies, same for all of the Baltic states.
The tentative response of the West emboldened Russia from day one, we own that bit. There is no escalation under the UN Charter in aiding and assisting Ukraine in Ukraine. That is what Art. 51 expects to be undertaken by nations which are signatories to the UN Charter, where there is clear evidence of one nation failing to abide with the Charter, [Russia], and in the absence of substantive action by the UNSC.
It remains an affront to common decency that the UNSC members do not invoke Art.27(3), as it already removes the right of Russia to vote on any SC matter other than procedural matters, to which tehy also have no veto capability.
It is our governments that fail to have the fortitude to comply with the UN Charter, and in the meantime Ukrainians are dying every minute that our teams fiddle. The Russian conscripts, that are not being paid by Putin, not being fed, provided proper clothing, anything meaningful in body armor, but may get heating from thermal cameras.... No one is being helped by this disaster being protracted by our worthless representatives in the UN. It is not just my position that the UN fails to apply Art. 27(3) correctly, it is the UNSC History library that contends the same.
However I think your sentences which I highlighted in red are not correct. I don't think a NATO state can choose to become a co-belligerent in a non-NATO conflict, and then invoke NATO article 5 if it is subsequently on the receiving end of a response whether on its own soil, or against its own armed forces. If a NATO stare chooses to engage in non-NATO adventures then the consequences of that become non-NATO in nature.
I'm not wishing to have a dig at you, simply pointing out that I think you've made an error on this particular point.
Russia propoganda is preparing their population for their latest act of villainy - the destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam and murder of thousands.
Along with their attacks on Ukranian families by targeting heating and power stations before Winter, it is clear they wish to kill every Ukranian they can't enslave. I can't see them ever being forgiven for this.
Along with their attacks on Ukranian families by targeting heating and power stations before Winter, it is clear they wish to kill every Ukranian they can't enslave. I can't see them ever being forgiven for this.
Russia propoganda is preparing their population for their latest act of villainy - the destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam and murder of thousands.
Along with their attacks on Ukranian families by targeting heating and power stations before Winter, it is clear they wish to kill every Ukranian they can't enslave. I can't see them ever being forgiven for this.
Along with their attacks on Ukranian families by targeting heating and power stations before Winter, it is clear they wish to kill every Ukranian they can't enslave. I can't see them ever being forgiven for this.
You have to wonder who is controlling this lunacy - if anybody is. Is it Putin himself, thrashing about in impotent desperation, or has he devolved responsibility to his thuggish minions who are now trying to outdo each other in brutality with an eye to the main chance when Putin goes? Being Russians they presumably know what will happen to them when the regime falls.
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It appears to be a bit of in fighting between Russian and Belarus troops 
NO One pick up on my post about Chemical Weapons?
NO One pick up on my post about Chemical Weapons?
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Yes, but without substantiation that Twitter post is just another unverified claim, and it's difficult to tell what's going on from a blurry video - could just as easily be incendiaries or something else causing scattered small fires as chemicals