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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 12th Oct 2022, 17:30
  #10441 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting Command and Control system for Ukrainian legacy Soviet SAM systems.

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Old 12th Oct 2022, 18:15
  #10442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Russia modifying 800 T-62 tanks, some probably more than 50 years old, for its war in Ukraine. This probably means it has run out of all of its modern (relatively) T-64, T-72 and T-80 tanks, and canít manufacture new ones quickly.
I'm not convinced. First of all I am in doubt they have 800 left of those in working order good enough to make an upgrade. As second, pre-war Russia was able to modernize maximum of 100-200 T72's per year, now they are claiming to modernize 800 even older tanks from storages sealed even longer time ago for war in Ukraine.

They might pad them with some extra sheets of metal but thats about it. There is no point trying to modernize the T62's if you are out of modern sights and such for the newer ones.

Then comes the issue of bore, 115mm smooth bore gun. Everything else uses 125mm. Russian mllitary seems to be a logistical nightmare already even without that hassle, if they even have the munition in stock anyway.

Last but not least, that is a four crew MBT. They are already struggling to find crews for their 3 crew mobik toasters, theyd need 33% more incompetent and untrained grunts to drive those 60 yo "Czechoslovakian liberators" in untrained tight columns into unfriendly places.

There's been T62M's already in the eastern front in limited quantities, but I am quite sure that the Z team is incapable of modernizing the old original versions and absolutely not in those quantities in such a short timeframe.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 18:24
  #10443 (permalink)  
 
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Further signs of desperation and posturing.

My concern is whether UKR has sufficient ammunition to dispose of them.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 18:42
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Not good, considering the power lines have been down again refusing diesel deliveries to the NPP, that should have been included in the warning about using Nukes in Ukraine and the response IMHO

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Old 12th Oct 2022, 19:00
  #10445 (permalink)  
 
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Overview of Rammstein meeting in Brussels and additional equipment sent to Ukraine.
re 3x LRU (modernization of M270) Unknown MARS II + PzH 2000
500,000 sets of winter uniforms, shells #
Anti-aircraft missiles for 15 million euros
Sweet, 1/2 a million winter uniforms from a Country that knows about the cold, while the Russian troops extoll the virtues of a pair of socks and wonder where their supposed stocks of winter uniforms went.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 19:09
  #10446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MPN11

My concern is whether UKR has sufficient ammunition to dispose of them.
You mean T62s? It is very old design with side armour thickness in the range of just 80mm. With direct side impact an M72 LAW will penetrate it and make poor mobik wish he would've surrendered in a timely manner. No need to waste NLAWs or Javelins on that one.
And as seen in videos from Ukraine, every fighter and their dog carrys at least one LAW at any given moment. I'd say Ukraine has sufficient ammunition to manage those accordingly.

The modernised version has a bit thicker side armour with passive armour protection, but later M72's are advertised to penetrate up to 450mm of steel and the armour protection has often seen to be a victim of corruption so shouldn't be an issue.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 19:47
  #10447 (permalink)  
 
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ISTR that another of the T62's weaknesses was that it had an automatic case ejection system (that could be switched off under certain circumstances, like NBC) which always lowered the gun barrel to a set position in order to function. The time taken to then re-lay it, particularly in long-range engagements as you might get in the wide-open prairies of Ukraine, restricted rate of fire compared to contemporary MBTs.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 20:26
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"Something went wrong at the “Department for Combating the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. Apparently, Russians were so optimistic that they drove straight through the minefield."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3



Last edited by Wokkafans; 12th Oct 2022 at 20:38.
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 21:46
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Were they Ukrainian laid mines or was that an own goal?

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Old 12th Oct 2022, 21:52
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Originally Posted by WB627
Were they Ukrainian laid mines or was that an own goal?
Either way, i fail to see much value in placing mines in plain view, unprotected by observed fire. Did I read a different text book?
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Old 12th Oct 2022, 21:56
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Either way, i fail to see much value in placing mines in plain view, unprotected by observed fire. Did I read a different text book?
Well it worked !! The Russians were laying mines like that in the early days of the war, so probably an own goal . They do not seem to be the sharpest pins in the pack.

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Old 12th Oct 2022, 22:18
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The ones down the sides of the roads I posted earlier slowed the traffic down far better than any speed bumps.

It looks like the west is finally starting to throw more modern kit into the pot.


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Old 12th Oct 2022, 22:30
  #10453 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by mahogany bob
FDR

If we are concerned that our own troops involvement is a bridge too far, then how about getting the same gear on loan to the Ukrainians and those crew that are prepared to go do an eagle squadron for the closest thing to a just cause we have seen in the last 75 years.


GOOD - I THINK that you have backed off from a NFZ - total air war with Russia and risk of escalation to an Eagle sqn comprising the latest gear F35s etc- sort of mercenaries?
I donít think that the RAF / NATO are worried about risking their own lives - they would be justifiably confident with their superb trg and superior kit of defeating the Russian Air Force in quick time but the risks of escalation would be too great.
To an extent.

The NFZ is itself a questionable concept, my concern at the time and since then has been the rationale to not provide greater tactical assistance was predicated on the concerns of "escalation", and yet, that is predictable as an outcome of either doing or not doing, the difference is temporal only.

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Old 12th Oct 2022, 22:57
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Either way, i fail to see much value in placing mines in plain view, unprotected by observed fire. Did I read a different text book?
But they do not know they are unprotected by artillery cover, so you are denying the use of the road, and also you do not know what is buried either side
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 05:19
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Not good, considering the power lines have been down again refusing diesel deliveries to the NPP, that should have been included in the warning about using Nukes in Ukraine and the response IMHO



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...Ct3aWn2u0rAAAA
The ZPPN site appears to ordinarily have 10-days of diesel, which by now must be getting a bit tight. The reactors are shut down because the overall safety situation is too degraded to continue operating. Continued coolant circulation is nececessary, run by diesels if the outside grid feeders go down - which they do continuously due to Russian artillery strikes. The Russians have their own fuel convoy and so are refusing to accept the Ukraine fuel convoy. This is because Russia has declared itself the new owner and legal operator of the ZPPN reactors - the complex of 6 reactors is the largest power station in Europe - as well as annexing the various territories. The Russians are quite simply trying to establish facts on the ground for future lawsuits and/or negotiations.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/A...hia-as-Ukraini
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 05:26
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
This is because Russia has declared itself the new owner and legal operator of the ZPPN reactors - the complex of 6 reactors is the largest power station in Europe - as well as annexing the various territories. The Russians are quite simply trying to establish facts on the ground for future lawsuits and/or negotiations.
This has no relevance whatsoever once Ukrainians push Russian fascists out of the area. And they will.
The worrying bit is that once the russkies are pushed away, what will they do, blow up the place? Leave the reactors boobytrapped? Send in more missiles and artillery shells but with better accuracy? The evil has no limits.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 06:09
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Originally Posted by Thud_and_Blunder
ISTR that another of the T62's weaknesses was that it had an automatic case ejection system (that could be switched off under certain circumstances, like NBC) which always lowered the gun barrel to a set position in order to function. The time taken to then re-lay it, particularly in long-range engagements as you might get in the wide-open prairies of Ukraine, restricted rate of fire compared to contemporary MBTs.
Yes, it is a strange one, throwing the case out the turret hence requiring a lot of time to maneuver. This was due to the 115mm case+projectile being a long combination with overall length of more than 1000mm and crew being unable to handle the cases within the very restricted space. On T72 they went to the cartouch design combined with autoloader and notorious carousel beneath the crew. Faster to fire but with some drawbacks in case the opponent fires at you first...

Against the more contemporary tanks like Leo2 or Abrams it has very little chances. They can see, hear, smell and fire out of an old T62's range. They'd never know what hit them. but then again, they'd never know if a LAW hits them either.
Therefore, to my understanding, the Russkies have used the T62's only within the occupied territories behind the lines in the east as they know very well that it's at its best in herding civilians but at its worst against a modern warmachine like Ukraine.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 06:40
  #10458 (permalink)  
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Other types - ASRAAM, AIM-9?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bri...ne-2022-10-12/


Britain to donate air defence missiles to Ukraine

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Britain said it would donate air defence missiles capable of shooting down cruise missiles to Ukraine in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv and other cities in recent days.

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced the new support ahead of a NATO meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Ukraine's allies had pledged new air defences and more aid on the sidelines of the meeting on Wednesday.

Britain said the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, or AMRAAM, which will be provided in the coming weeks, could be used with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS air defence systems pledged by the United States.

Hundreds of additional air defence missiles of other types would also be donated, along with more aerial drones and a further 18 howitzer artillery guns, it said.

Wallace said: "Russia's latest indiscriminate strikes on civilian areas in Ukraine warrant further support to those seeking to defend their nation.

"So today I have authorised the supply of AMRAAM anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine."
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 06:47
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 06:51
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The more one thinks about it, the more it would appear that a prolonged war may actually play into NATO's hands in one sense.
If Ukrainian losses can be minimised - Russia continues to pour manpower and military resources into the meatgrinder, without making any discernable progress.
It's military thus becomes weaker and weaker, more and more degraded the longer the conflict persists.
It rapidly runs out of human bodies to thrown into the conflict.
Even a pukka general mobilisation wouldn't serve any purpose.
Can it lift industrial production, innovate and produce new game changing weaponry (or import it)?
Alone it would appear not, it's constrained by sanctions and it has few friends with the capabilities.
Thus the strategy becomes, use the Ukrainians to utterly bleed Russian dry militarily.
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