An interesting take from Gary Karparov in Spiegel
https://www.spiegel.de/international...2-6f71525486ea
Kasparov: Putin’s military and economic capacities will have been exhausted by spring. He’ll run out of munitions by April at the latest and the economy won’t even be able to cover the basic needs of the Russians. That is why Putin is in a hurry. He is trying to establish a good starting point for negotiations.
Kasparov: We know from Russia's history that every military and geopolitical defeat leads to dramatic changes at home, whether it was the Crimean War in 1855, the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, the stalemate in World War I or the end of the Cold War in 1989. But this defeat could be the worst of all because it will be very visible. It will be like 1945 in Germany.
Kasparov: If we don't manage to return to Europe, we will become a satellite state of China. Beijing is just waiting for Russia to collapse. Demographically and economically, that is the biggest threat to our existence. According to official Chinese historiography, nearly half of Russia's territory is actually China.