Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ukraine really needs more and better AA weapons. And fast.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1579465601231507457
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1579465601231507457
Russian missile hit German embassy's visa office in Kiev.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505
Russia getting a good kicking in the UN this evening and about time too. The world and his wife queuing up to put the boot in
I am surprised that the Russian delegation hasn't thrown its toys out of its pram and walked out again.
Well the wicked witch appears to be script reading all the missile strikes to bolster Russias position, then starts to play Trump garbage stating among other things that the west does not understand nuclear… rather apt com8 g from the dimwit that thought he could nuke a Hurricane storm. She seems to miss the fact on the ground they are getting their asses handed to them.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...24323953737728
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...24323953737728
Her place at
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
/ The independent Russian media outlet Sota is reporting that 100 newly mobilised Russian troops are refusing orders to mount an attack on the recently liberated town of Lyman, after only one out of a previous group of 100 men returned from Ukraine. Translation below. ⬇️
"Gazprom: NATO mine destroyer was found at Nord Stream 1 in 2015" The inference from Gazprom is clear.
The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/
The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/
More info on Gazprom/Seafox here:
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"Gazprom: NATO mine destroyer was found at Nord Stream 1 in 2015" The inference from Gazprom is clear.
The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status...MgGX9h3HYRVaew
The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status...MgGX9h3HYRVaew
The estimated explosives used to attack Nordstream was 100kg.
1.4kg < 100kg.
The Russians are desperate.
Yup, and the sea fox noted in 2015 was dealt with by Sweden, not Russia, and notified to all parties. "and didn't explode", was there a primer with evidence of initiation being done? Does a 1.5kg charge give what was sensed as a seismic event by Sweden, Norway and Denmark? What is the seismic signature of a rupture of the gas line at what, 100bar? Not getting tense on that at this time.
WARNING: no direct aviation content.
I have been looking at a worst case Ukr scenario [short of MAD] but including some Tactical Nuclear on the battlefield or even cities. Worst result: Russia "wins", dreadful UKr military and civil casualties, collapse of morale. Western aid half-hearted, land and cities and infrastructures trashed, huge numbers Ukr voting with their feet into Poland, Poland doing its superb and gallant best to succour them.
I have been looking at a worst case Ukr scenario [short of MAD] but including some Tactical Nuclear on the battlefield or even cities. Worst result: Russia "wins", dreadful UKr military and civil casualties, collapse of morale. Western aid half-hearted, land and cities and infrastructures trashed, huge numbers Ukr voting with their feet into Poland, Poland doing its superb and gallant best to succour them.
The worst case for Russia is that they have 30 more years of fighting with their client states, and the absolute worst outcome is that the client states join together, and return the love to Russia that the last 100 years more or less of hegemony have bestowed on any country unlucky enough to share a border with Russia. With the complete breakdown of the federation, there are around 15 states that will possess nuclear weapons, and a chip on their shoulders. A disorderly breakup of the Russian Federation is not a fun scenario, but there is room for lots of popcorn.
Russia is sending T-62's sans upgrades into the contested areas, without reactive armor, with green crews.... (how old is the ammo for the 115?)
AA: the AA biz is very challenging business and especially against unmanned vehicles.
BUT: Ukrainians did manage to shoot down 50% of the stuff thrown at them on monday. They apparently even managed to destroy a cruise missile with a MANPADS. In essence the AA warfare is doable (althoigh challenging).
What they really need is more and better to complete their BUK's, S300's, IGLAs etc soviet stuff.. The German IRIS-T SLM is a good start but too little.
You can't make a fool proof 100% cover, but if they could raise the percentage from 50 to 70 or 80, it would mean thousands of civilian lives saved and umph amount of money and resources saved in preserved infrastructure.
article 5? No, sorry to say. Embassy areas are not considered that way.
BUT: Ukrainians did manage to shoot down 50% of the stuff thrown at them on monday. They apparently even managed to destroy a cruise missile with a MANPADS. In essence the AA warfare is doable (althoigh challenging).
What they really need is more and better to complete their BUK's, S300's, IGLAs etc soviet stuff.. The German IRIS-T SLM is a good start but too little.
You can't make a fool proof 100% cover, but if they could raise the percentage from 50 to 70 or 80, it would mean thousands of civilian lives saved and umph amount of money and resources saved in preserved infrastructure.
article 5? No, sorry to say. Embassy areas are not considered that way.
Hitting the bridge now, (and I suspect that they actually didn't hit it before, it was an inside job... ) will ensure more missiles into Ukraine as that is what Putin can do, which is kill civilians. As he was evidently dropped on his forehead as a puppy to cause his sociopathic tendencies, (diving from high windows is apparently a growth sport in Russia) indiscriminate missile attacks at Ukraine is what Putin is able to do. That suggests that to do the direct attack, Ukraine needs to have greater ABM and SAM capability, more than they have at present. This week, they reportedly told down 40 of 84 missiles targeting civilians. That has to get a lot better to run Russia out of missiles, although they seem to be having some problems with their map reading, there is some hospitals and orphanages and schools that Putin has missed.
The justification to not support Ukraine in the no fly area was morally bankrupt at that time, and was shown to be absolute nonsense. Russia defies the UN's Charter, and their condemnation in the UNGA for naked aggression, and the unlawful and unrecognised annexation of territory. The UN Charter permits any and all UN signatory states to provide defensive support to the nation that was so brutally attacked. Putting any and all available support into the field reduces risk, it removes the incremental direction that Putin is left with at the current time, and which in the end will still get to the point, decide what is acceptable, nuclear blackmail, or defence of a sovereign state being attacked by a bully. To look the other way is to ensure that North Korea will see that as a green light, so we can expect insanity to ensue.
The West, or more correctly, nations that believe in the UN Charter for peace between nations, needs to get into the field, as a tripwire to stop Putin. Oddly, doing that will increase the likelihood that Putin sees old age, he has a justification to step back from the brink, or not, his choice. Bring popcorn.
Ukraine can well use many aircraft, I would love to see a few F-117's being handed over to them, after all, they are wind up mice as far as the USAF is concerned, yet, pretty much make Russia need to rethink the security of everything they have in the area. While Serbia showed a few weaknesses in the use of the aircraft, they also gave a lot of good training points on how to go and make a mess of all Russian forces that are criminally occupying Ukrainian territory. I still think the Ukrainians can do a lot with the A-10, they know how to fly, how to fly low and certainly are motivated to use any weapon to suppress the Russians. They also allow a reduction in the blue-on-blue issues that come up with having common types with the Ukrainians and the criminals. There are acres of OH6's UH1s, and other gear that is not demanding to learn how to operate and use as a gunship. The Ukrainians are well aware of the risks, and they are not afraid to stand up and do the fighting, they just want the equipment to do the task. Our reticence to give full backing increases the number of these brave and proud people that die defending their freedom from the tyranny of Putin, and who are the front line for the rest of us, as assuredly, if they fail, then there are NATO countries that are in the line immediately.
being afraid of the response of the bully doesn't protect anyone from the bully. The only response is a firm kick in the groin.
Last edited by fdr; 11th Oct 2022 at 08:48.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
POLITICO:
Supply lines: Also on POLITICO this morning, Ilya Gridneff has taken a detailed look at how Europe’s defense industry is faring amid the demands that have been placed on it in recent months. He writes that “simply put, there just aren’t enough bullets, weapons and hi-tech systems in Europe to match the EU’s demands and looming dangers ahead.”
Biden’s bid: Reacting to the horrific pictures emerging from Ukraine yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said his country would “continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.” Biden also pledged to provide advanced air defense systems in a call with Zelenskyy last night.
Supply lines: Also on POLITICO this morning, Ilya Gridneff has taken a detailed look at how Europe’s defense industry is faring amid the demands that have been placed on it in recent months. He writes that “simply put, there just aren’t enough bullets, weapons and hi-tech systems in Europe to match the EU’s demands and looming dangers ahead.”
Biden’s bid: Reacting to the horrific pictures emerging from Ukraine yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said his country would “continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.” Biden also pledged to provide advanced air defense systems in a call with Zelenskyy last night.
The UN Charter permits any and all UN signatory states to provide defensive support to the nation that was so brutally attacked.
* Personally not a fan of the term "the West" for those opposing Russia at this point, hence the quotes. It is one of those historical and geographical fudges that can be used disparagingly, not only in autocratic propaganda but also within parts of its (our) own culture. I prefer "the free world". I'm happy and proud to live here too and I'm around 150° East longitude.
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Is that programming a shell?
Panto season..
He's behind you....
Panto season..
He's behind you....
Light in the darkness
I should just like to say that, in the unremitting flow of depressing news of desperate acts by Mad Vlad and his fellow thugs, reading fdr's posts is a constant tonic - humorous, considered, and AFAIK, very well informed. Long may they continue.
And, in other news, when the wash-up starts after Ukraine's victory, I look forward to German politicians justifying their actions (or lack of).
And, in other news, when the wash-up starts after Ukraine's victory, I look forward to German politicians justifying their actions (or lack of).
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That's a new UK donation to me, a UK-Donated Ukrainian MAMBA Artillery Monitoring Battlefield Radar or ARTHUR Artillery Hunting Radar
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Probably not.
In 1999, during the NATO air strikes on Belgrade, the Chinese embassy was hit. While the Chinese government was, understandably, quite upset, simply taking out an embassy is not by itself a casus belli.
In 1979, the American Embassy in Tehran was overrun. That did not trigger Article 5.
Probably not.
In 1999, during the NATO air strikes on Belgrade, the Chinese embassy was hit. While the Chinese government was, understandably, quite upset, simply taking out an embassy is not by itself a casus belli.
In 1979, the American Embassy in Tehran was overrun. That did not trigger Article 5.
News are out that UKR hit RuAF air base in Melitopol. Some sources say with HIMARS.
Gosh Ukrainian city workers are fast! Prime example of efficiency. I bet they weren't worrying about hi-vis vests.