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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:32
  #10361 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Ukraine really needs more and better AA weapons. And fast.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1579465601231507457
Good explanation of the limitations of AA weapons -

Originally Posted by Beamr
Russian missile hit German embassy's visa office in Kiev.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505
Article 5?


Originally Posted by Beamr
Belarus has no interest whatsoever. But Lukashenkas life depends on Putins support.

Without Putins support Lukashenka would've been overthrown years ago. He knows he'll be toast if Putin loses.
Just another cold war era dictator desperately trying to stay in power.
He should be looking for somewhere to quietly retire, North Korea, Cuba if they will have him



Russia getting a good kicking in the UN this evening and about time too. The world and his wife queuing up to put the boot in

I am surprised that the Russian delegation hasn't thrown its toys out of its pram and walked out again.


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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:51
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well the wicked witch appears to be script reading all the missile strikes to bolster Russias position, then starts to play Trump garbage stating among other things that the west does not understand nuclear… rather apt com8 g from the dimwit that thought he could nuke a Hurricane storm. She seems to miss the fact on the ground they are getting their asses handed to them.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...24323953737728

Her place at Nurnberg sorry The Hague is already booked, along with the rest of the comedians she works with.




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Old 10th Oct 2022, 22:15
  #10363 (permalink)  
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/ The independent Russian media outlet Sota is reporting that 100 newly mobilised Russian troops are refusing orders to mount an attack on the recently liberated town of Lyman, after only one out of a previous group of 100 men returned from Ukraine. Translation below. ⬇️
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 23:18
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"Gazprom: NATO mine destroyer was found at Nord Stream 1 in 2015" The inference from Gazprom is clear.

The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/



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Old 10th Oct 2022, 23:20
  #10365 (permalink)  
 
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More info on Gazprom/Seafox here:

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Old 11th Oct 2022, 00:34
  #10366 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
"Gazprom: NATO mine destroyer was found at Nord Stream 1 in 2015" The inference from Gazprom is clear.

The Gazprom site appears blocked from the UK so I am unable to link the press release from them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...15-2022-10-10/



https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status...MgGX9h3HYRVaew
The Seafox uses 1.4kg of explosives to detonate mines.

The estimated explosives used to attack Nordstream was 100kg.

1.4kg < 100kg.

The Russians are desperate.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 02:34
  #10367 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
The Seafox uses 1.4kg of explosives to detonate mines.

The estimated explosives used to attack Nordstream was 100kg.

1.4kg < 100kg.

The Russians are desperate.
Yup, and the sea fox noted in 2015 was dealt with by Sweden, not Russia, and notified to all parties. "and didn't explode", was there a primer with evidence of initiation being done? Does a 1.5kg charge give what was sensed as a seismic event by Sweden, Norway and Denmark? What is the seismic signature of a rupture of the gas line at what, 100bar? Not getting tense on that at this time.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 02:45
  #10368 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
WARNING: no direct aviation content.

I have been looking at a worst case Ukr scenario [short of MAD] but including some Tactical Nuclear on the battlefield or even cities. Worst result: Russia "wins", dreadful UKr military and civil casualties, collapse of morale. Western aid half-hearted, land and cities and infrastructures trashed, huge numbers Ukr voting with their feet into Poland, Poland doing its superb and gallant best to succour them.
For Russia, I would contend that is the best case they can hope for.

The worst case for Russia is that they have 30 more years of fighting with their client states, and the absolute worst outcome is that the client states join together, and return the love to Russia that the last 100 years more or less of hegemony have bestowed on any country unlucky enough to share a border with Russia. With the complete breakdown of the federation, there are around 15 states that will possess nuclear weapons, and a chip on their shoulders. A disorderly breakup of the Russian Federation is not a fun scenario, but there is room for lots of popcorn.

Russia is sending T-62's sans upgrades into the contested areas, without reactive armor, with green crews.... (how old is the ammo for the 115?)
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 03:40
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Originally Posted by WB627
Good explanation of the limitations of AA weapons -

Article 5?.
AA: the AA biz is very challenging business and especially against unmanned vehicles.
BUT: Ukrainians did manage to shoot down 50% of the stuff thrown at them on monday. They apparently even managed to destroy a cruise missile with a MANPADS. In essence the AA warfare is doable (althoigh challenging).
What they really need is more and better to complete their BUK's, S300's, IGLAs etc soviet stuff.. The German IRIS-T SLM is a good start but too little.

You can't make a fool proof 100% cover, but if they could raise the percentage from 50 to 70 or 80, it would mean thousands of civilian lives saved and umph amount of money and resources saved in preserved infrastructure.


article 5? No, sorry to say. Embassy areas are not considered that way.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 08:33
  #10370 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
WARNING : Aviation content : It would be nice for Ukraine if something with significant range and the ability to get through the SAM defences were available for them to attack the rail bridge.
The bridge is within range, enough to cause a major nuisance, but the payloads are lean. With good intel, they have the ability to cause some mess already. With the right load, they get to do direct attacks. Those ranges are without getting creative, and the Ukrainians are rather creative.

Hitting the bridge now, (and I suspect that they actually didn't hit it before, it was an inside job... ) will ensure more missiles into Ukraine as that is what Putin can do, which is kill civilians. As he was evidently dropped on his forehead as a puppy to cause his sociopathic tendencies, (diving from high windows is apparently a growth sport in Russia) indiscriminate missile attacks at Ukraine is what Putin is able to do. That suggests that to do the direct attack, Ukraine needs to have greater ABM and SAM capability, more than they have at present. This week, they reportedly told down 40 of 84 missiles targeting civilians. That has to get a lot better to run Russia out of missiles, although they seem to be having some problems with their map reading, there is some hospitals and orphanages and schools that Putin has missed.

The justification to not support Ukraine in the no fly area was morally bankrupt at that time, and was shown to be absolute nonsense. Russia defies the UN's Charter, and their condemnation in the UNGA for naked aggression, and the unlawful and unrecognised annexation of territory. The UN Charter permits any and all UN signatory states to provide defensive support to the nation that was so brutally attacked. Putting any and all available support into the field reduces risk, it removes the incremental direction that Putin is left with at the current time, and which in the end will still get to the point, decide what is acceptable, nuclear blackmail, or defence of a sovereign state being attacked by a bully. To look the other way is to ensure that North Korea will see that as a green light, so we can expect insanity to ensue.

The West, or more correctly, nations that believe in the UN Charter for peace between nations, needs to get into the field, as a tripwire to stop Putin. Oddly, doing that will increase the likelihood that Putin sees old age, he has a justification to step back from the brink, or not, his choice. Bring popcorn.

Ukraine can well use many aircraft, I would love to see a few F-117's being handed over to them, after all, they are wind up mice as far as the USAF is concerned, yet, pretty much make Russia need to rethink the security of everything they have in the area. While Serbia showed a few weaknesses in the use of the aircraft, they also gave a lot of good training points on how to go and make a mess of all Russian forces that are criminally occupying Ukrainian territory. I still think the Ukrainians can do a lot with the A-10, they know how to fly, how to fly low and certainly are motivated to use any weapon to suppress the Russians. They also allow a reduction in the blue-on-blue issues that come up with having common types with the Ukrainians and the criminals. There are acres of OH6's UH1s, and other gear that is not demanding to learn how to operate and use as a gunship. The Ukrainians are well aware of the risks, and they are not afraid to stand up and do the fighting, they just want the equipment to do the task. Our reticence to give full backing increases the number of these brave and proud people that die defending their freedom from the tyranny of Putin, and who are the front line for the rest of us, as assuredly, if they fail, then there are NATO countries that are in the line immediately.

being afraid of the response of the bully doesn't protect anyone from the bully. The only response is a firm kick in the groin.




Last edited by fdr; 11th Oct 2022 at 08:48.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 09:02
  #10371 (permalink)  
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POLITICO:

Supply lines: Also on POLITICO this morning, Ilya Gridneff has taken a detailed look at how Europe’s defense industry is faring amid the demands that have been placed on it in recent months. He writes that “simply put, there just aren’t enough bullets, weapons and hi-tech systems in Europe to match the EU’s demands and looming dangers ahead.”

Biden’s bid: Reacting to the horrific pictures emerging from Ukraine yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said his country would “continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.” Biden also pledged to provide advanced air defense systems in a call with Zelenskyy last night.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 10:13
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The UN Charter permits any and all UN signatory states to provide defensive support to the nation that was so brutally attacked.
Good point fdr. That was the instrument (along with supporting resolutions) under which the US and allies supported Kuwait. I wonder if NATO and aligned countries would have announced and enforced a no-fly zone in February if they had known how bad it would get. Your suggestion for the supply of surplus "Western" * aviation kit, along with ramped up pilot training, would fit the precedent that is now well established for supply of arms and training to Ukraine, so would be no valid cause for escalation. Sure there are challenges in adapting but they have shown themselves to be resourceful and determined. I'm not a military man but I imagine it would be a worthwhile boost in capability, particularly in winter as ground operations slow down.

* Personally not a fan of the term "the West" for those opposing Russia at this point, hence the quotes. It is one of those historical and geographical fudges that can be used disparagingly, not only in autocratic propaganda but also within parts of its (our) own culture. I prefer "the free world". I'm happy and proud to live here too and I'm around 150° East longitude.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 11:11
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Incoming cruise strike.

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Old 11th Oct 2022, 11:26
  #10374 (permalink)  
 
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Is that programming a shell?


Panto season..
He's behind you....




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Old 11th Oct 2022, 11:32
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Light in the darkness

I should just like to say that, in the unremitting flow of depressing news of desperate acts by Mad Vlad and his fellow thugs, reading fdr's posts is a constant tonic - humorous, considered, and AFAIK, very well informed. Long may they continue.

And, in other news, when the wash-up starts after Ukraine's victory, I look forward to German politicians justifying their actions (or lack of).
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 11:35
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That's a new UK donation to me, a UK-Donated Ukrainian MAMBA Artillery Monitoring Battlefield Radar or ARTHUR Artillery Hunting Radar
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 12:27
  #10377 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WB627
Article 5?
Probably not.
In 1999, during the NATO air strikes on Belgrade, the Chinese embassy was hit. While the Chinese government was, understandably, quite upset, simply taking out an embassy is not by itself a casus belli.
In 1979, the American Embassy in Tehran was overrun. That did not trigger Article 5.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 14:04
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News are out that UKR hit RuAF air base in Melitopol. Some sources say with HIMARS.



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Old 11th Oct 2022, 15:18
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Gosh Ukrainian city workers are fast! Prime example of efficiency. I bet they weren't worrying about hi-vis vests.


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Old 11th Oct 2022, 15:55
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