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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 14th Dec 2021, 16:23
  #361 (permalink)  
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Don’t ask the Poles, they still remember Katyn…..
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 16:40
  #362 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting to look at the Line of Contact in eastern Ukraine - the area in separatist hands constitutes probably less than half of the Donbas. And its a long ol' distance to the much discussed land bridge to Crimea.
Would Vlad really try it on, one last hurrah? I'm beginning to think its all posturing.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 19:08
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Would Vlad really try it on, one last hurrah? I'm beginning to think its all posturing.
I also have some doubts. After all he must keep it afterwards. That is easy if the majority of the inhabitants is pro- Russian. If not, it can get ugly quickly. Hello Afghanistan.
If he tries at all he will only try to occupy 'friendly' territory. He doesn't have the troops to keep 45 Million people (almost one third of his own population) in check permanently. After winning against Georgia he also refrained from pernmanently occupying.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 20:20
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Originally Posted by dctyke
i believe that it is over 20% in Ukraine. If true that’s a lot of people.
More in Eastern Ukraine too.
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Old 15th Dec 2021, 01:45
  #365 (permalink)  
 
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I personally think it’s all a bluff and he has another agenda that he is after accomplishing,such as the nord gas line or getting the start treaty on nukes that was allowed to lapse reinstated.
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Old 15th Dec 2021, 07:47
  #366 (permalink)  
 
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No doubt there are people trying to figure out how to get Mr Putin to retreat. His problem is that having made a big noise he can't just do a U-Turn (he's not BoJo after all).

Sitting and doing nothing is easy but may not be wise - I think I'd go for an Energy Summit which would aim to codify energy arrangements in E & C Europe - and the plum for him would be that Norsdstream 2 would open - after all the damn thing has been built already. Using it isn't going to change Germany's dependence on Russian gas really - and if they are really worried they can move to LNG supplies over 2-3 years and gradully use less from teh east. Let Putin suggest it so he can bask in Russian media coverage.

I'm always a bit leery of backing dictators with large armies into corners.........
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Old 15th Dec 2021, 08:07
  #367 (permalink)  
 
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So they dream about Soviet Union 2.0. Assuming they get all the territories: What would it be good for? Didn't they end up bankrupt the last time? Pure size clearly did not work for them.
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Old 15th Dec 2021, 12:10
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But things have changed, we now depend on their gas, we didn't in the coldwar.

Merkel has apparently twice stopped US arms sales to the Ukraine that they have paid for.

Angela Merkel 'blocked US from arming Ukraine against Russia' (msn.com)

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Old 15th Dec 2021, 13:53
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Originally Posted by squidie
More in Eastern Ukraine too.
I wonder how many Russian-speaking Ukrainians beyond the separatist areas are sympathetic towards Russia. If their recent elections are anything to go by, I suspect many aren't.

As for Putin marching his troops back down the hill, I'm sure he'll find some way as portraying this as some glorious victory against the evil West. Your average Russian probably won't know the truth, and certainly wouldn't openly question it.
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Old 17th Dec 2021, 21:03
  #370 (permalink)  
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Let there be war….


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...rope-tdklrrvdg

Russia demands Nato remove all troops from eastern Europe

Russia has demanded that Nato, America and Britain withdraw all military bases and troops from central and eastern European countries, including those within the EU.

The Russian foreign ministry published Moscow’s demands to Nato, the US and allies on “security guarantees” in return for withdrawing a massive troop build-up on Ukraine’s border.

Russia’s demand in the form of two draft legal treaties is highly unusual in international diplomacy and is regarded as an ultimatum that threatens the existence of the western alliance and the EU.

The draft treaties call on Nato and Washington to halt any enlargement of the alliance eastwards and “not to deploy weapons and forces” where it “would be perceived by the other side as a threat to national security”.

The White House said it was discussing the proposals with European allies, adding that it “will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built”.

Demands include an incendiary call for all troop deployments in eastern Europe to be rolled back to the levels before 1997, effectively removing Nato protection from all countries that have since joined.

“Nato and the US must not station any additional military personnel or weapons outside the countries where they were stationed as of May 1997 (prior to the accession to the alliance of Eastern European countries) except in exceptional cases with the consent of Russia,” said the demands, according to the Russian RIA Novosti news agency.

Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined Nato in 1999, followed in 2004 by Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

“Putin is demanding that President Biden abolish Nato,” said a diplomat from an eastern European country in the alliance. “If the West blinks then the alliance that stopped Soviet aggression and protected the peace is dead.”

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy minister, warned that relations with Nato and the West were at a “dangerous point” and called for crisis talks with the US tomorrow in Geneva on the demands. “We are ready to immediately to go for talks with the US,” he said.

Other demands include a US commitment “not to establish military bases in former Soviet countries” or “to develop military co-operation” with countries that include the EU members Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

Russia is additionally demanding a ban on the deployment of Nato, US and Russian warships and aircraft to “areas where they can strike targets on the territory of the other party”.

“This is fantasy geopolitics. Putin is living in the USSR past. If he wants to be taken seriously he must engage with the reality of the present which is that Nato has enlarged,” a European diplomat said…….
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Old 17th Dec 2021, 21:21
  #371 (permalink)  

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"This is my last territorial claim in Europe" Hitler 1938.
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Old 17th Dec 2021, 21:50
  #372 (permalink)  
 
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Putins latest fantasy missive must be purely for internal domestic consumption. If he's serious I want some of what he's on, it looks to be fookin mental.
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Old 17th Dec 2021, 23:49
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Russia is additionally demanding a ban on the deployment of Nato, US and Russian warships and aircraft to “areas where they can strike targets on the territory of the other party”.
Given the worldwide reach of some weapon systems, that would effectively ban their deployment anywhere in the world.
I don't know what Putin is smoking, but I'd like to have some...
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 00:39
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Demands include an incendiary call for all troop deployments in eastern Europe to be rolled back to the levels before 1997, effectively removing Nato protection from all countries that have since joined.
We’d have to seriously enlarge our forces and rebuild Bruggen Laarbruch Wildenwrath, Gutersloh Wegberg Rheindalen etc borrow our Harriers back from the USA and dust off the Jag and Tornado Fleets at Cosford.

I suppose the USA and U.K. should be flattered, we get mentioned twice, both as part of NATO and separately. He must think we are a serious threat lol.
Hasn’t he realised the only reason these countries wanted to join in the first place was to prevent him walking into them again, and they want nothing to do with him, they tried the Russian model once and it sucked.

I’ll have a pint of whatever he’s drinking.


​​​​​​…

Last edited by NutLoose; 18th Dec 2021 at 00:51.
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 07:06
  #375 (permalink)  
 
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Russia would have no money to respond to any NATO buildup, especially after sanctions and without most hard currency income. This is why they try to scare the west into submission. A bit like a poor man's China approach.
What did work best during the Cold War: Power language, this for that, credible counter-threats and quiet business, trade and credits. It was fun to see the US reactivating the 56th Artillery Command at Mainz the other day. This is the language needed.
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 10:38
  #376 (permalink)  
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He’s clearly been on the Krokodil…
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 12:08
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Intrigued to read that up fair number of Jews of eastern European descent have upped sticks from Israel and moved to Ukraine since 2014, in light of the security situation in the former (out of the pan..?). I wonder if the resulting connections between the two countries could facilitate access to Israel's military production?
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 19:28
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 20:48
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Old 18th Dec 2021, 20:57
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1978558.html

But in an interview with The Spectator, Mr Wallace said Ukraine “is not a member of Nato so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia”.“We shouldn’t kid people we would. The Ukrainians are aware of that,” he added, in comments carried by The Times ahead of the interview’s publication.

Asked if that meant Ukraine was on its own, Mr Wallace said: “We can all help with capacity building but to some extent Ukraine is not in Nato and that is why we are doing the best diplomatically to say to Putin don’t do this.”
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