Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Superb piece by someone who knows KGB/FSB officers really well — and from there extrapolates convincingly about what will and what won’t deter Putin from going nuclear.
https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/a...r-that-he-was/
Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was
https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/a...r-that-he-was/
Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was
The insanity of NBC is that there is no scenario that exists that it ends in a win for any side that initiates such an escalation. We have come perilously close on 2 occasions to ending life on this planet by our own hand, and right now, failing to show the resolve to remove Vlad's SS troopers from Ukraine by conventional force backed up by the ability to escalate further is a least risk location for our bomb of a situation.
Whilst dropping the dam is just the kind of insane action that might be attractive to the russians ( and they have history from WW2 of blowing Dnipr dams) , if you look at a topography map the left bank of the Dnipr is on average considerably lower elevation than the right. The flooding would be much worse south of the river as FDR alluded. The Khakova dam is perhaps currently holding back more water (18 cubic km) than the Hoover dam ( nominally 32 cubic km when Lake Mead is full, which it certainly is not in recent years).
Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.
Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.
Crimea has a special place in the Russian psyche, which is odd, as it really has little to do with them, but they apparently like the sandy beaches. Would have thought Sochi did that too.
Well that is another sensible reason not to blow the dam, there would be no head of water for the canal. I doubt radiation would be an issue though after all that water washed through .
I think the canal is overstated in its importance, it is largely economic - 80% of the water was used for irrigation or industry. Russia may not care about that anymore. According to wiki (!) the area under cultivation in crimea declined by 90% between 2014 and 2017 ( those figures seem very high for such a short period though).
I think the canal is overstated in its importance, it is largely economic - 80% of the water was used for irrigation or industry. Russia may not care about that anymore. According to wiki (!) the area under cultivation in crimea declined by 90% between 2014 and 2017 ( those figures seem very high for such a short period though).
Kind of neat, get named as a terrorist state and take out your own reason for any public support, which is the only thing between the circling sharks and Putin becoming a pavement pizza beside Lenin's tomb.
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As for Kherson, it still beggars belief that Ukraine never took the bridge out early in the war when the town was initially threatened.
The Ukrainian guide to taking down a drone with a personal weapon.
The Ukrainian guide to taking down a drone with a personal weapon.
As for Kherson, it still beggars belief that Ukraine never took the bridge out early in the war when the town was initially threatened.
The Ukrainian guide to taking down a drone with a personal weapon.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...12771125383168
The Ukrainian guide to taking down a drone with a personal weapon.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...12771125383168
here are representative ballistics for a 20 degree elevation for .223 55gr and 7.62x39... The Ukrainians guidance guarantees a miss.
If they don't have tracer, they are mainly wasting ammo. A high deflection shot against a small target like that, is like clay pigeon shooting with a .22 instead of 12 Gauge. Heck, Ukraine could get some good ol' boys out of 'bama to go plinking if they give free ammo, and beer. Not many roadsigns survive first encounter with the boys with the "roll tide" crimson T shirt, a Ram 1500, and an AR-15. Seriously, get the economy pack magazines, tracer and enough beer n' guns, n' more beer, and set the guys out along the expected approach paths... get rid of the deflection hassles with a skirmish line of beer cans n' ammo.
the boys'll need a hunting' license... when is drone season? 
The "evacuation" of civilians from Kherson has begun.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Martial law introduced in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions
The Decree on the introduction of martial law in the new territories. It will be in effect from midnight - RIA
What does this mean?
You can read about it below, it includes the suspension of activities of political parties and other public and religious associations that "undermine defense and security"
The Decree on the introduction of martial law in the new territories. It will be in effect from midnight - RIA
What does this mean?
You can read about it below, it includes the suspension of activities of political parties and other public and religious associations that "undermine defense and security"
Can they now legally deploy conscripts to their "martial law zone" or do they still need to declare a legal "state of war"?
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The result of blowing the dam wall is to achieve the label of international terrorists, and to deprive Ukraine of another power supply, and to give a reasonable justification for Ukraine to shut down the water access for Crimea. That hasn't been done as yet, as Ukraine is not a terrorist state, the only one doing that sort of extortion is Russia.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ike-a-good-bet
To counter the drones with 40kg non armour piercin warheads that use GPS i propose chicken wire fencing around energy infrastrucure targets. When i drove around GCHQ in Cheltenham i am sure my car GPS was not working there so gps and glonass can be jammed.. This seems more cost effective than using high tech and expensive ordinance to take them out?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Further to the above - Sweden & Finland are, no doubt, also now investigating…
Norwegian journalists drew attention to the fact that the Russian Orthodox Church is buying up buildings in Norway overlooking the country's military bases, reports Dagbladet.
Norwegian journalists drew attention to the fact that the Russian Orthodox Church is buying up buildings in Norway overlooking the country's military bases, reports Dagbladet.
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Whilst dropping the dam is just the kind of insane action that might be attractive to the russians ( and they have history from WW2 of blowing Dnipr dams) , if you look at a topography map the left bank of the Dnipr is on average considerably lower elevation than the right. The flooding would be much worse south of the river as FDR alluded. The Khakova dam is perhaps currently holding back more water (18 cubic km) than the Hoover dam ( nominally 32 cubic km when Lake Mead is full, which it certainly is not in recent years).
Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.
Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.
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Signs that the IRIS-T system delivered, is up and working. Not good though as it narrows down the systems location
Another anti-drone weapon system brain phart - podded unit comprising a gimbal mounted LMG/minigun with EO unit, MMW sensor mounted below, automated or with man-in-loop, the whole unit suspended below a barrage balloon at say 1000'. Array of balloons with interlocking fields of fire. The last line of defence could be additionally fitted with a couple of Martlets as a final last-ditch means of engaging the drone.
Why blow the dam - a monumental task - when you can just open the 28 vast sluice-gates that retain the water? That would probably be more effective than blowing it, unless he plans to vapourise it with all the colateral damagenvolved to the appreciably Russian sympathysing population nearby. But he wouldn't survive nucing there, Russia would be incensed at doing that on 'home soil'.
Destruction would deny Putain the use of the bridge and rail line they need for supplies and maybe evacuation.
Flooding would only do much damage on the Russian side of the river and might even compromise the road to the Antonivskiy Bridge.
The canal isn't part of the picture, it is dry in many places and clearly has little flow of water.
He's not worried about denying Ukraine access to the Russian-side lowland in pursuit of his fleeing armies and he'd blow the Antonivskiy bridge behind an evacuation in any case.
Does he want the river fordable upstream perhaps for some future broad front assault with massed hordes of T55s? But again why destroy the dam rather than just open the gates?
I don't see how Russia gains anything from this apart from wrecking a major part of Ukraine's infrastructure which would be a significant handicap and own-goal to a winning Russia. Can they really be thinking of a major withdrawal from the entire region leaving a scorched-earth devastation behind them? That too hardly seems likely.
Destruction would deny Putain the use of the bridge and rail line they need for supplies and maybe evacuation.
Flooding would only do much damage on the Russian side of the river and might even compromise the road to the Antonivskiy Bridge.
The canal isn't part of the picture, it is dry in many places and clearly has little flow of water.
He's not worried about denying Ukraine access to the Russian-side lowland in pursuit of his fleeing armies and he'd blow the Antonivskiy bridge behind an evacuation in any case.
Does he want the river fordable upstream perhaps for some future broad front assault with massed hordes of T55s? But again why destroy the dam rather than just open the gates?
I don't see how Russia gains anything from this apart from wrecking a major part of Ukraine's infrastructure which would be a significant handicap and own-goal to a winning Russia. Can they really be thinking of a major withdrawal from the entire region leaving a scorched-earth devastation behind them? That too hardly seems likely.
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Probably to stop the Ukrainians closing them again.
it looks like the barge bridge that was being built but then removed has been built again and completed, I wonder if they are leaving it standing to. Let them evacuate..
it looks like the barge bridge that was being built but then removed has been built again and completed, I wonder if they are leaving it standing to. Let them evacuate..
Why blow the dam - a monumental task - when you can just open the 28 vast sluice-gates that retain the water? That would probably be more effective than blowing it, unless he plans to vapourise it with all the colateral damagenvolved to the appreciably Russian sympathysing population nearby. But he wouldn't survive nucing there, Russia would be incensed at doing that on 'home soil'.
Destruction would deny Putain the use of the bridge and rail line they need for supplies and maybe evacuation.
Flooding would only do much damage on the Russian side of the river and might even compromise the road to the Antonivskiy Bridge.
The canal isn't part of the picture, it is dry in many places and clearly has little flow of water.
He's not worried about denying Ukraine access to the Russian-side lowland in pursuit of his fleeing armies and he'd blow the Antonivskiy bridge behind an evacuation in any case.
Does he want the river fordable upstream perhaps for some future broad front assault with massed hordes of T55s? But again why destroy the dam rather than just open the gates?
I don't see how Russia gains anything from this apart from wrecking a major part of Ukraine's infrastructure which would be a significant handicap and own-goal to a winning Russia. Can they really be thinking of a major withdrawal from the entire region leaving a scorched-earth devastation behind them? That too hardly seems likely.
Destruction would deny Putain the use of the bridge and rail line they need for supplies and maybe evacuation.
Flooding would only do much damage on the Russian side of the river and might even compromise the road to the Antonivskiy Bridge.
The canal isn't part of the picture, it is dry in many places and clearly has little flow of water.
He's not worried about denying Ukraine access to the Russian-side lowland in pursuit of his fleeing armies and he'd blow the Antonivskiy bridge behind an evacuation in any case.
Does he want the river fordable upstream perhaps for some future broad front assault with massed hordes of T55s? But again why destroy the dam rather than just open the gates?
I don't see how Russia gains anything from this apart from wrecking a major part of Ukraine's infrastructure which would be a significant handicap and own-goal to a winning Russia. Can they really be thinking of a major withdrawal from the entire region leaving a scorched-earth devastation behind them? That too hardly seems likely.
anyone know what level the ZNPP picks up cooling water at? Won't matter if there is diesel fuel for the generators to run the pumps if the water supply is below the intakes or is gone completely.
That may be a new level of terrorism for a state, to destroy both a regional water supply, and to cause a meltdown of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe all at one go. Won't be a country in the world that will be amused with anyone that does that.... Will be a historic level of self isolation, make North Korea look like model citizens. Pretty sure China, and all of the southern states of the Russian Federation would not be amused by having their land being irradiated by the worlds biggest dirty bomb which would come from what, 6 x VVER1000's... cooling ponds are free flooding or pumped?
At what point does China declare Russia a terrorist state? Seems the US State Department and the UNSG are unable to see their way to doing that.
PACE did, Estonia did, Latvia did, Lithuania did...Italian parliament just declared Russia a Terrorist Regime...
This is our only planet that Putin is screwing about with.
What's wrong with this picture, upstream of the dam?
.
Last edited by fdr; 19th Oct 2022 at 21:50. Reason: 10733
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Automatic translation:
Water is being discharged at the Kakhovskaya HPP, it has already been calculated that Kherson will not fall under flooding, but there is a danger for private areas, said Saldo
Earlier, he said that water from the Kakhovka reservoir is preventively sent to the North Crimean and Kakhovka canals in order to reduce its discharge into the Dnieper in case of damage to the locks of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
Earlier, he said that water from the Kakhovka reservoir is preventively sent to the North Crimean and Kakhovka canals in order to reduce its discharge into the Dnieper in case of damage to the locks of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
Are the ruskies so desperate they are resorting to petty theft to get cameras for their orlan drone
Mass theft of speed cameras across Sweden connected to war in Ukraine. According to SÄPO, more than 100 speed cameras (Canon DSLR) have been stolen in recent months, some of which have allegedly been sold to Russia(n proxies) & used in improvised drones
From the Associated Press:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...940e13c5ec8c2c
The Biden administration on Wednesday announced a round of criminal charges and sanctions related to a complicated scheme to procure military technologies from U.S. manufacturers and illegally supply them to Russia for its war in Ukraine.