Originally Posted by
uxb99
Can we assume a tactical nuke strike would just be a scorched earth policy by Putin?
No. We can make no such assumption.
Or can something be gained from using one?
Raising the ante like that - and it's a major change in what's going on - would need to be done with some kind of gain in mind, but my ability to read minds in the Kremlin is not great.
My best guess is to create more fear of greater escalation, or to attempt to get European states to stop supporting Ukraine since as Mr Biden has pointed out (I'll paraphrase) "The missile are nearly impossible to stop".
If a recent Ukrainian analysis is roughly correct (they assert that Putin has less than 50 but more than 40 of them left)
and
if the Russian decision was made to launch even one with a tactical nuclear tip to hit somewhere in Ukraine (pick a target, I've no idea what a best one for such a strike would be)
how many other Kinzhal's have had their warhead replaced with a nuke becomes the next great guessing game? That then lead to
who is now under threat from inside Russian territory based on the nominal range of that missile?
All of Ukraine, for sure, and most NATO allies.
US territory is explicitly not under threat in a case like that, and thus the strategic aim might be to create a political divide between the US and the NATO allies in Europe based on fear of an attack that cannot be stopped and the demonstrated will to take that next step.
(As I look at the map, an aircraft armed with one of those could shoot it over the polar ice cap, but I think Canada is in between such a launch and the US, and I don't think Canada is annoying Putin sufficiently to warrant such a strike).
Also, a strike (even a tactical nuke) on US soil nearly guarantees that buckets of sunshine would rain down on various parts of Russia.
That leaves me with: if there is a real intent to do this, rather than a lot of bluster, an air-launched one would hit somewhere in Ukraine and then loads of political signaling (likely via back channel) would begin to inform those in various capitals that "you aren't safe either, you need to reconsider your position" ...
Yeah, it's a reach, almost Hollywoodish, and it's missing a lot of little details that are probably important.