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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 14th Feb 2022, 09:14
  #881 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Russia may well run through Ukraine with sheer mass, but holding the ground is entirely different topic. It would be painstaking for the Russians to try and occupy such a big country with 44 million people out of which millions are willing to fight the oppressor and many have military training. And now they have weapons to defend themselves, too. And it would eventually escalate to Russia as well, imagine what the IRA did in the 70's and multiply it by X.
I agree, it would be their Afghanistan part 2, they would be targets on every corner, the locals have the sophisticated weapons to take out tanks or air assets.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 10:13
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How will they fight this? it shows the country will not simply roll over and accept its fate.











https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ary-tests.html

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsl...ays/ar-AATOXUS
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 10:33
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A granny with a Heckler? What could possibly go wrong...

On this note I wonder how many eastern Europeans have flocked to Ukraine's cause? Must be a good number of Poles who are spoiling for a fight.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 10:36
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IMHO Putin knows this will escalate, in fact he is counting on it. This may start as a war in Eastern Ukraine, but it will become WWIII in short order. Having so many combat units from so many nations in the same area (Eastern Europe) is fraught with risk. It only takes 1 Mig to ‘accidentally’ down a NATO aircraft, and it’s game on.
China will be watching with one eye whilst it covets Taiwan with the other. King Jong will be rubbing his hands with delight. Who knows what deals and agreements Putin has quietly made behind the scenes?
And Putin is a Cold War Warrior - former Spetznatz. He has seen ‘Mother Russia’ weakened and sidelined. He is getting old, and he will not just watch as his country becomes ever less significant. He will take one last, huge, throw of the dice. He believes that Russia has little left to lose and so much to gain.
I am beyond worried about the current situation.

Last edited by Baldeep Inminj; 14th Feb 2022 at 11:01.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 11:51
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815

Russia making serious preparations for invasion - PM

Out of interest with the threat of Cyberwarfare looming and various institutions and infrastructures at risk, can the world cut off internet access to Russia? and if not are i take it there are the facilities to do likewise to the Russian economy and infrastructures?
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 13:41
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Looks like Ukrainian International are now positioning aircraft to Castellon in Spain...4 arrivals earlier today. Maybe not such a good sign on what they think will happen soon...😰
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 13:54
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Appears to have been taken out of their hands.

14.02.2022: Due to the foreign policy situation, Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) has received an official notification from insurance companies to terminate the insurance of aircraft for flights in the airspace of Ukraine. In this regard, UIA, at the request of lessors, sends 5 Boeing 737-800 aircraft to Spain while retaining other aircraft in the company's fleet. In addition, 2 aircraft of the airline are sent for scheduled engine maintenance in Belgrade.

The airline will notify you of any changes in the future. We recommend to follow the airline's news on the official website, as well as the flight schedule.

UIA is making efforts and is constantly negotiating with insurance companies, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, the State Aviation Service and hopes for mutual understanding.

We remind you that passengers can change the departure date free of charge if the original fare is available, using the online service "Manage my Booking".
https://www.flyuia.com/uk/en/news/20...uvannya-flotom
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 13:56
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Indeed, interesting. Certainly a good number inbound today to Kviv and scheduled departures tomorrow. Sad situation looming perhaps.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 14:02
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Those that haven’t left the country have moved to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv - which would seem an indication it might be attacked.

If it is, and falls, the Lviv could become the de facto capital, in the manner of Bonn, in a divided nation….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mats-flee-kyiv

It is past time to leave Ukraine’: western diplomats flee Kyiv

….The US and Canadian embassies have sent non-essential staff and family members home and are evacuating others to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. American, Canadian and British military trainers in the country have also been withdrawn.

Office space and hotel rooms in Lviv are at a premium as diplomats and businesses temporarily relocate there. Britain’s ambassador, Melinda Simmons, will stay in Kyiv and work with a core team, while other British diplomats have been sent home.….

Lyiv was once a Polish city , it may become part of Poland again if the Ukraine is taken off the map like Poland was for 123 years after the partition.
Ironic that the Polish army may end up defending a city where poles were slaughtered by Ukrainians in the Polish Ukrainian war . A very dark sense of humour is required when you have a stand up comedian for a leader .

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Old 14th Feb 2022, 16:08
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
He believes that Russia has little left to lose and so much to gain.
Putin will be very aware what WWIII would mean and what smoldering remains would be left from the planet (and thus especially also Russia as well - There are for each Russian town dozens of Nukes which have its name written on them) as a consequence.
I'm not sure I see any possibility for Russia to win a lot in this whole mess. I think Putin miscalculated the unity of the 'West' and now has the problem how to get out of this without losing face.

I am beyond worried about the current situation.
I'm also worried because an accident/misunderstanding could easily lead to escalation looking at the high tensions. I hope everyone is aware and reflects in each move what's at stake.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 16:36
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Originally Posted by henra


I'm also worried because an accident/misunderstanding could easily lead to escalation looking at the high tensions. I hope everyone is aware and reflects in each move what's at stake.
I hope the Stanislav Petrovs of the world are on duty on the right time.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 16:44
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I agree, Putin has dug himself into a hole and doesn't know how to stop digging.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 16:45
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Originally Posted by fitliker
Lyiv was once a Polish city , it may become part of Poland again if the Ukraine is taken off the map like Poland was for 123 years after the partition.
Ironic that the Polish army may end up defending a city where poles were slaughtered by Ukrainians in the Polish Ukrainian war .
Indeed. My ex-MiL, was born in Lyiv in 1930 when it was Poland.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 16:47
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Originally Posted by henra
Putin will be very aware what WWIII would mean and what smoldering remains would be left from the planet (and thus especially also Russia as well - There are for each Russian town dozens of Nukes which have its name written on them) as a consequence.
I'm not sure I see any possibility for Russia to win a lot in this whole mess. I think Putin miscalculated the unity of the 'West' and now has the problem how to get out of this without losing face.
Sad fact isn't it that wars are often fought over the greed of a very few.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 18:34
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Why am I reminded of Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938 and subsequent takeover of all of Czechoslovakia.
Supposedly justified as being to protect the German minority of the population.

Also the US and others have raised the possibility of the Russians faking a trans-border attack supposedly by the Ukraine into Russia to be used as a justification for Russia to invade Ukraine .
Did not Hitler do the exact same thing to “Justify” the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939?
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 19:19
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Originally Posted by albatross
Also the US and others have raised the possibility of the Russians faking a trans-border attack supposedly by the Ukraine into Russia to be used as a justification for Russia to invade Ukraine .
Did not Hitler do the exact same thing to “Justify” the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939?
yes, the Gleiwitz incident.
the Soviets did the same a few months later, called the shelling of Mainila where the Soviet artillery shelled their own troops but the Soviets claimed that the shots were fired from Finland and so began the winter war.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 19:41
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Willing to bet all those posting about impending invasions and war with Russia are the same people worried about climate change and are queuing up for their 4th booster.

it’s theatre - pure distraction.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 19:47
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
it’s theatre - pure distraction.
What's not, then?
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 19:51
  #899 (permalink)  
 
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Well if Putin thought it was all going to ramp up to ww 3, he wouldn’t have bothered collecting his yacht.
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Old 14th Feb 2022, 21:04
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Does Ukraine have any capability to counter-strike? Have they air assets that could [probably suicidally] attack Moscow?

Probably not, but once any invasion gets under way, the temptation to hit back [rather than just defend] must surely be a consideration.
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