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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 11th Feb 2022, 20:58
  #841 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MPN11
This is starting to look like Munich Mark II … and I’m getting less comfortable by the day. Putin’s megalomania is over-riding any form of common sense, unless this aggressive posturing is, for some obscure reason, for domestic consumption.
Spiegel is reporting that US intelligence (claimed to be SIGINT, but I guess they would say that) has been shared with European allies. It is reported to contain relatively detailed plans of the invasion and a date of next Wednesday (16th Feb). In other news, Lavrov has just cancelled a visit to Israel that was scheduled for early next week citing "personal reasons". I guess we are going to find out soon...

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...pPYDCQgO1dEMph
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 21:03
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Scary I have to say.
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 21:03
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...on-as-possible

Foreign Office tells Britons in Ukraine to leave country now

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...plomats-leave/

EU Tells Citizens to Leave Ukraine Now


In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, Latvia, Denmark, Israel, Estonia, Norway, Japan and South Korea all directed their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.….
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 22:34
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I know there are a great many people on this thread who have knowledge and experience of international relations. Many will have spent time in other countries, served with their militaries, done attaché roles etc.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 22:58
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
I know there are a great many people on this thread who have knowledge and experience of international relations. Many will have spent time in other countries, served with their militaries, done attaché roles etc.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.
Apparently the US have intercepts of 'high level plans' outlining a kick-off next week. Presumably this is why there are now calls for foreign nationals to leave the Ukraine now. I also saw a tweet that the US State Dept. are going to phone each of the 30000 US nationals apparently in Ukraine to confirm their travel plans.
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 23:39
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Originally Posted by unmanned_droid
Apparently the US have intercepts of 'high level plans' outlining a kick-off next week. Presumably this is why there are now calls for foreign nationals to leave the Ukraine now. I also saw a tweet that the US State Dept. are going to phone each of the 30000 US nationals apparently in Ukraine to confirm their travel plans.
Biden trying to appear strong after the Afghan debacle. Putin is many things but not stupid, it’s unlikely he’d mass 100k troops on the border and then wait for NATO to catch up. If he was going to invade, he’d be inspecting his troops in Kiev by now.

As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.
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Old 11th Feb 2022, 23:50
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I guess we're about to find out. I hope you're right.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 00:08
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Biden trying to appear strong after the Afghan debacle. Putin is many things but not stupid, it’s unlikely he’d mass 100k troops on the border and then wait for NATO to catch up. If he was going to invade, he’d be inspecting his troops in Kiev by now.

As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.
Putin may not be stupid, but that doesn't mean he reliably right and reasonable. This is such a dangerous time, the risk is miscalculation is high. Whichever angels guided JFK in 1962, we need them now.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 03:13
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Biden trying to appear strong after the Afghan debacle. Putin is many things but not stupid, it’s unlikely he’d mass 100k troops on the border and then wait for NATO to catch up. If he was going to invade, he’d be inspecting his troops in Kiev by now.

As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.
I am a bit puzzled by the NATO catching up phrase, what do you mean by that? Do you mean Putin has planned to attack a NATO country? That surely would be very foolish.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 03:57
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I am a bit puzzled by the NATO catching up phrase, what do you mean by that? Do you mean Putin has planned to attack a NATO country? That surely would be very foolish.
Those Russian troops have been on the Ukraine border since November - meanwhile NATO have reinforced all the neighbouring NATO members and supplied weapons to Ukraine.

it’s hardly the classic ‘lightning strike’ favoured by the Russians.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 04:43
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Flight Radar showing US Global Hawk lozenge shaped patrol line, West/East, North of Kiev.

Sooner than wednesday ? Any helpful weather fronts ?
Global Hawks or even RC135W are there several days a week.. e.g.
https://s20.directupload.net/images/220127/kzmh35ia.png
That screenshot was taken by me Jan, 27th.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 06:40
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Telling Citizens to leave Ukraine is a message to the Russians that their plans are known, and an attack is imminent and expected.

It is also stating that Russia will be fighting against a well prepared and supplied coalition of defenders from many nations.

A "get out of Western Russia" to other Citizens would send a similar message.

Some very careful thinking on both sides needs to happen to allow Russia to extract itself from this quagmire in more senses than one.

IG
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 06:43
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Even russian media is reporting their embassy in ukraine is being evacuated
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 07:35
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 12:18
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Any civilians to make their own way out in case of invasion, makes sense as no airlift would be viable

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60359400
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 13:39
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I am confused as to why an airlift wouldn't be viable, we've been flying C-17s in there most days for some time now. Is it purely down to the SAM/air threat, so couldn't even do it from the furthest airport from the front line? They don't think that an airbridge would be able to be organised with a safe route? Too many people?
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 13:50
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They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.

And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.

My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 14:30
  #858 (permalink)  
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The attack on US utilities, in itself, could be considered an act of war.


https://www.itworldcanada.com/articl...-expert/473065
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 16:10
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.

And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.

My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
OK, thanks.
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Old 12th Feb 2022, 17:02
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.

And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
.
the S400's are already on combat alert in western Belarus (based on Russian statements "due to the exercise"). They have the range all the way to Kiev so it would be very difficult to enter the airspace. Or leave if you happen to be on tarmac loading pax at the moment the action starts.

https://tass.com/defense/1400689

MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile systems have been put on combat duty at a training range in Belarus’ Brest region as part of the Russian-Belarusian unified regional air defense system during an inspection of the Union State’s troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Thursday.
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