Is Ukraine about to have a war?
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...pPYDCQgO1dEMph

Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...on-as-possible
Foreign Office tells Britons in Ukraine to leave country now
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...plomats-leave/
EU Tells Citizens to Leave Ukraine Now
In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, Latvia, Denmark, Israel, Estonia, Norway, Japan and South Korea all directed their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.….
Foreign Office tells Britons in Ukraine to leave country now
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...plomats-leave/
EU Tells Citizens to Leave Ukraine Now
In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, Latvia, Denmark, Israel, Estonia, Norway, Japan and South Korea all directed their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.….

I know there are a great many people on this thread who have knowledge and experience of international relations. Many will have spent time in other countries, served with their militaries, done attaché roles etc.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.

I know there are a great many people on this thread who have knowledge and experience of international relations. Many will have spent time in other countries, served with their militaries, done attaché roles etc.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.
Does this feel familiar or predictable? To me, it does not.
Putin is stuck. He did not want to invade so he created a threat in order to get some concessions. It has not worked - his bluff has been called He now has to attack, or back down. Neither option is appealing to him.

Apparently the US have intercepts of 'high level plans' outlining a kick-off next week. Presumably this is why there are now calls for foreign nationals to leave the Ukraine now. I also saw a tweet that the US State Dept. are going to phone each of the 30000 US nationals apparently in Ukraine to confirm their travel plans.
As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.

Biden trying to appear strong after the Afghan debacle. Putin is many things but not stupid, it’s unlikely he’d mass 100k troops on the border and then wait for NATO to catch up. If he was going to invade, he’d be inspecting his troops in Kiev by now.
As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.
As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.

Biden trying to appear strong after the Afghan debacle. Putin is many things but not stupid, it’s unlikely he’d mass 100k troops on the border and then wait for NATO to catch up. If he was going to invade, he’d be inspecting his troops in Kiev by now.
As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.
As another poster stated, he tied to force concessions and lost, but he’s not about to start WW3 to save face.

it’s hardly the classic ‘lightning strike’ favoured by the Russians.

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https://s20.directupload.net/images/220127/kzmh35ia.png
That screenshot was taken by me Jan, 27th.

Telling Citizens to leave Ukraine is a message to the Russians that their plans are known, and an attack is imminent and expected.
It is also stating that Russia will be fighting against a well prepared and supplied coalition of defenders from many nations.
A "get out of Western Russia" to other Citizens would send a similar message.
Some very careful thinking on both sides needs to happen to allow Russia to extract itself from this quagmire in more senses than one.
IG
It is also stating that Russia will be fighting against a well prepared and supplied coalition of defenders from many nations.
A "get out of Western Russia" to other Citizens would send a similar message.
Some very careful thinking on both sides needs to happen to allow Russia to extract itself from this quagmire in more senses than one.
IG

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Any civilians to make their own way out in case of invasion, makes sense as no airlift would be viable
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60359400
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60359400

I am confused as to why an airlift wouldn't be viable, we've been flying C-17s in there most days for some time now. Is it purely down to the SAM/air threat, so couldn't even do it from the furthest airport from the front line? They don't think that an airbridge would be able to be organised with a safe route? Too many people?

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They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.

Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The attack on US utilities, in itself, could be considered an act of war.
https://www.itworldcanada.com/articl...-expert/473065
https://www.itworldcanada.com/articl...-expert/473065

They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.

They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
.
https://tass.com/defense/1400689
MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile systems have been put on combat duty at a training range in Belarus’ Brest region as part of the Russian-Belarusian unified regional air defense system during an inspection of the Union State’s troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Thursday.
