Is Ukraine about to have a war?
That's definitely not his plan and for sure not even an accepted outcome for him. HE (personally) has a lot to lose. The problem ist more an accidental escalation getting out of control.
I doubt they'd even be able to cross the border.
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But you could have folks positioned in Moscow as well as other Russian cities and the rear ready to kick off if war is announced, it would bring it home to them as well as possibly disrupting road rail and power infrastructure.
CBS now reporting Russian artillery now moving into attack positions.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-...nkId=152198269
Speculation it will all kick off on Wednesday.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-...nkId=152198269
Speculation it will all kick off on Wednesday.
Last edited by tartare; 14th Feb 2022 at 23:51.
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Putin will be very aware what WWIII would mean and what smoldering remains would be left from the planet (and thus especially also Russia as well - There are for each Russian town dozens of Nukes which have its name written on them) as a consequence.
I'm not sure I see any possibility for Russia to win a lot in this whole mess. I think Putin miscalculated the unity of the 'West' and now has the problem how to get out of this without losing face.
I'm also worried because an accident/misunderstanding could easily lead to escalation looking at the high tensions. I hope everyone is aware and reflects in each move what's at stake.
I'm not sure I see any possibility for Russia to win a lot in this whole mess. I think Putin miscalculated the unity of the 'West' and now has the problem how to get out of this without losing face.
I'm also worried because an accident/misunderstanding could easily lead to escalation looking at the high tensions. I hope everyone is aware and reflects in each move what's at stake.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Duma, Russia's parliament, will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, according to the speaker of the Duma lower house.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Suggestions in the press that Putin might not attack Ukraine for “months”.
But that seems to ignore the weather/terrain issue both in the Pinsk marshes and across Ukraine - “Rasputitsa” - which would, if not making an attack impossible, would greatly aid Ukrainian defence until next winter. Can Putin keep effectively his entire army deployed in the west, including all those sent from the Far East region on exercise in Belarus?
And, of course, it provides more months for allies to ship more modern equipment to the Ukraine and train their forces in its use.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ukraine-border
Russia sending thousands more troops to Ukraine border
….”Although Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has said “there could be a Russian invasion almost immediately”, on Monday she told MPs in a private conference call that Putin could keep up the military pressure on Ukraine for months, according to some of those who listened in.”…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa
Rasputitsa
But that seems to ignore the weather/terrain issue both in the Pinsk marshes and across Ukraine - “Rasputitsa” - which would, if not making an attack impossible, would greatly aid Ukrainian defence until next winter. Can Putin keep effectively his entire army deployed in the west, including all those sent from the Far East region on exercise in Belarus?
And, of course, it provides more months for allies to ship more modern equipment to the Ukraine and train their forces in its use.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ukraine-border
Russia sending thousands more troops to Ukraine border
….”Although Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has said “there could be a Russian invasion almost immediately”, on Monday she told MPs in a private conference call that Putin could keep up the military pressure on Ukraine for months, according to some of those who listened in.”…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa
Rasputitsa
Speculation it will all kick off on Wednesday.
The public disagreement, albeit minor, between Putin and Lavrov was noteworthy, shows that there are doubts at the top too. I wonder was Lavrov stands to lose if sanctions kick in?
BBC leading with Russian news of "some troops pulled back"
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?
Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .
In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.
If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.
Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .
In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.
If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.
I'd be happy for us all to play along with the "Putin is a genius and has humiliated the West" narrative circulating in Russia if it means him saving face and standing his forces down. Of course, historians will view this moment as the point Putin's Russia finally realised the limits of its ambitions.
It's not about what we think he's achieved, but what his domestic press can claim he's achieved. That said, rt.com is reporting the "withdrawal" in surprisingly similar terms to the Western press; I wonder whether they're singing from the same sheet...
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?
Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .
In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.
If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.
Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .
In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.
If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.
This has yet to play out.