Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/russ...ry?id=82933378

Russian aircraft buzz US Navy patrol planes, get within 5 feet, Pentagon says

[ORAC]

Not sure wha5 their role will be. Hopefully they won’t tangle with the Russian fighters in Latakia and Khmeimim.

Twitter

Twitter

[ORAC]

Long piece on updates overnight in today’s Politico London Playbook.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...rles-cop-quiz/

[minigundiplomat]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Why are you getting personal?

Because he keeps posting grot from politico and Twitter, almost fetishing a conflict in Ukraine.

[ORAC]

She - and reporting a growing military crisis would seem a major purpose of this forum - particurly when it is also dominating the first 15 minutes of every news report on the BBC, ITV, Sky etc.

[minigundiplomat]

For assuming your gender, you have my apologies. However, the Russians aren’t coming..

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Not sure wha5 their role will be. Hopefully they won’t tangle with the Russian fighters in Latakia and Khmeimim.

I suspect this is part of our propaganda efforts i.e. making out what looks like a routine deployment to be something special. I'm guessing these Typhoons are there for Shader sorties.

[blind pew]

Watching GB news, announced we have sent 350 troops…
Enough to cover the border with ticket collectors.
Punching the tickets with the question of the destination.
Kiev..yes ..punch
Kiev ..yes ..punch
Kiev ..no ..Paris.
This is for Kiev.
Yes but our final destination is Paris. Macron has already surrendered.
p.s. before I get banned my dad was a translator for DeGaulle…

[Recc]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

For assuming your gender, you have my apologies. However, the Russians aren’t coming..

That means nothing. You cannot possibly know what the Russian government plans to do. In any case, let's have some perspective: We do know is that "the Russians" took part in a limited invasion of Ukraine back in in 2014; have previously annexed Ukranian territory; and have been active participants in a low-intensity war that has been ongoing since then. We also know (from multiple independent sources) that there has been an extraordinary build-up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border over recent months. Either Russia is planning a larger-scale military operation, or wants people to think that it is planning one. Whether or not the "West" is talking up the crisis, it is not of their making and is concerning to many of us.

If the subject is of no interest to you, then by all means stop reading (and replying to the thread), but insulting people who are sharing or commenting on interesting and relevant information, (or even engaging in discussion or speculation) is tedious. Why not try making an argument rather than just stating an opinion? I would (genuinely) be interested to hear.

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

For assuming your gender, you have my apologies. However, the Russians aren’t coming..

Putin just needs to keep marching his troops up to the top of the hill and back down again to have an impact. Who would invest in the Ukraine now?

[jolihokistix]

The Russians aren’t coming and they aren’t going.

[NutLoose]

Damn, the Sun got it wrong... So much for a quality newspaper...ahh well back to looking at page 3..

Please note: other newspapers are available and No, it do not read the Sun.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

Because he keeps posting grot from politico and Twitter, almost fetishing a conflict in Ukraine.

sharing those is not a reason to get personal. Once your argumentation reverts to getting personal you've lost it.

[minigundiplomat]

Originally Posted by Beamr

sharing those is not a reason to get personal. Once your argumentation reverts to getting personal you've lost it.

I disagree. Once the invasion the senile President keeps promised doesn’t maerialise, you’ve lost your argument.

[ORAC]

Russian reply to the American response to their original demands which seems to be behind this entire crisis.

Letter is embedded (in Russian) in a TASS report in the thread. A translation by a native speaker would be appreciated.

Twitter

https://tass.ru/politika/13744013

[El Grifo]

I disagree. Once the invasion the senile President keeps promised doesn’t maerialise, you’ve lost your argument

Not saying that it ain"t going to happen, it is simply the ridiculous spectacle of the various Pollys not only predicting the day but also the exact time !
Reminds me of the "Repent, the world will come to an end next Tuesday at 1.34pm" brigade, after which, when nada happens, they have to beetle home, hang up their Anoraks and wait for the next sign from the supposed higher powers :-)
Think Liz Truss currently comes Top of the Pops :-)
El G.

[NutLoose]

You have to look at both sides of the “propaganda” and somewhere in the middle ground will be the truth.

[tartare]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

Because he keeps posting grot from politico and Twitter, almost fetishing a conflict in Ukraine.

Don't be ridiculous.
I value Oracs posts - she's pretty balanced and objective and has a service record to back her insights.

[Baldeep Inminj]

Everything seems prepared. Fighters, attack helicopters, artillery pieces, troops, bridges, hospitals and blood supplies.
Putin has put everything in place for an invasion and of course he knows that the West see what is happening.

You then must ask why would he do this in the full knowledge that the eye in the sky is watching. Either it is an elaborate bluff or he is ready to rock.

He also undoubtedly knows about preparation fatigue. Troops cannot be ready to pounce for an indefinite time. He cannot tell the troops on the ground that they definitely will or won’t being going in, because it will leak…and they are all probably as scared and confused as we are. They have homes and families - a reality he cannot ignore indefinitely.

He has 2 options in my opinion- withdraw (maybe not immediately but at some point), or attack.

Here is the thing - and my wife is Russian born although not raised there but she has many relatives who are born, raised and live there so she knows their psyche… Putin would rather die than appear weak IHHO - he will roll the dice and attack.

My bet is Saturday. It will be grim, bloody and will not stay constrained in Ukraine. He cannot leave this earth without a determined attempt to bring Russia back to the force it was within the USSR. It will become WWIII in short order.

I would be utterly delighted to be wrong.