Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

Biden says he will shut down the Nord 2 pipeline if Russia invades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60292437

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by rattman

Admiral Ustinov will be joing Varyag in the med, cant confirm it myself but other sources are saying that russia has told turkey about movements through the straights the 6 landing ships, 2 frigates and 3 kilo transiting into black sea between 6 and 15th and moskva transiting to med on the 15th

That doesn't really amount to much of a landing force. More for show?

PS Ukraine to add anti-ship missiles to its shopping list, just in case...

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by fitliker

And now for something completely different ;

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kel...es-already-won

Kelly McParland: Why would Putin invade Ukraine when he's already won?

He’s already succeeded in humiliating his Western counterparts and Moscow is once again being taken seriously as a world power.

The BBC's Steve Rosenberg was sort of taking this line yesterday during his report from Moscow. I think the key take aways from this crisis is that NATO has become more unified and likely to spend more bolster its defences, and Europe will look elsewhere for its gas supplies, neither of which are good news for Putin's Russia.

[tartare]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Biden says he will shut down the Nord 2 pipeline if Russia invades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60292437

Yes - I wondered when this was announced whether part of it might suddenly be destroyed or crippled?
Anyone know where the USS Jimmy Carter is at the moment?

[Less Hair]

On a positive note this entire situation will reunite NATO and bring back the US to Europe with updated structures and more current concepts. Finally NATO will be better prepared and equipped to interdict future aggression.

[Beamr]

Denmark is sharpening it defences,700 soldiers from the Danish combat battalion are now gathered in Slagelse, and the Armed Forces is getting ready to place two F-16 fighters onBornholm .

The government has today decided to sharpen the Armed Forces' preparedness as one reaction to "the unacceptable Russian military pressure on Ukraine".
This is done on the recommendation of the Defense Command, the Ministry of Defense informs in a press release .
This means, among other things, that the preparedness for the Danish combat battalion, which is registered NATO 's preparedness, stays sharpened to 1-5 days.
- The battalion will be assembled in Slagelse, and necessary warehouses will be built up, it is stated.

It is about 700 soldiers who gather in Slagelse, says the newly appointed Minister of Defense, Morten Bødskov (S).
At the same time, the defense is ready to strengthen the national repulsion contingency by placing two F-16 fighter jets on Bornholm , if it is deemed "operationally necessary".
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fo...jon-i-slagelse

[henra]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

I think the key take aways from this crisis is that NATO has become more unified and likely to spend more bolster its defences, and Europe will look elsewhere for its gas supplies, neither of which are good news for Putin's Russia.

Indeed!
I think it feels a bit like Vlad' is nearing the end of his reign. The medium term consequences of this are all rather unfavourable for Russia. So he has a short Term internal PR gain but strategically damages Russia's position. I guess he accepts this because his scuccessor(s) will have to deal with it. For the next 2-3 Years it helps internally to secure his position. To me it seems he doesn't look at a longer horizon than the next 2 -3 Years. For whatever reason. Don't know if his Doctors told him something bad or if he feels that the public opinion in Russia started to tilt against him. No idea, what the actual trigger was.

[Less Hair]

Domestic PR will have a problem after hard currency income ends.

[NutLoose]

Fascinating insight into Putin

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...b-global-en-GB

[RAFEngO74to09]

Rob Lee - I gave his Twitter link above - currently giving his opinion to HCDC:

Parliamentlive.tv - Defence Committee

[NutLoose]

Let’s hope we don’t need our modern destroyer fleet, all six are now in harbour with engine problems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r...e-b981191.html

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Let’s hope we don’t need our modern destroyer fleet, all six are now in harbour with engine problems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r...e-b981191.html

meanwhile in Moscow:
The State Duma said that "weak" Great Britain cannot threaten Russia

London's latest statements about a possible build-up of forces in Europe are pure provocation, Aleksey Chepa , First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs , told Gazeta.Ru . So the deputy commented on the words of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson about the UK's readiness to strengthen the NATO battalion in Estonia and plans to send fighters and ships to protect South-Eastern Europe.

“This is pure provocation. The British Armed Forces are weak both in numbers and in the quantitative composition of weapons. Therefore, they cannot exert any significant influence or help - all this is more like a provocation. Talk about sending 100 people somewhere is just part of the information war, which has long been unleashed and has recently acquired some unimaginable character,” Chepa explained.

From the deputy's point of view, if London takes the steps outlined by Johnson, this is unlikely to pose a threat to Russia. According to him, the concern in this case is the sending of troops to Ukraine.

“If troops and some actions are delivered to Ukraine, then this is a serious threat of some kind of unexpected conflict. Sitting on a barrel of powder, playing with matches is very dangerous - anything can happen. Remember how revolutions developed in many countries, including Ukraine. Think about the snipers, about the white powder that (former US Secretary of State Colin) Powell brandished from the podium at the UN Security Council . And what all these events eventually led to," Chepa stressed.

Earlier it was reported that Johnson called the crisis in Ukraine the biggest power build-up in Europe.

https://m.gazeta.ru/politics/news/20...17259109.shtml

[Less Hair]

Russian super yacht got rushed out of Hamburg in case of upcoming sanctions.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...bite-2jz3nns2b

More info about the vessel:
https://www.superyachtfan.com/yacht/graceful/

[ORAC]

Nutloose, don’t believe everything you read in the press….

Twitter

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Let’s hope we don’t need our modern destroyer fleet, all six are now in harbour with engine problems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r...e-b981191.html

No, they're not. All six are currently alongside. However - it's not "engine problems" that's put them there, it's a combination of normal operational tempo and upkeep.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by henra

No idea, what the actual trigger was.

Its either the pandemic or those protests last year. Things aren't exactly rosy in mother Russia.

[melmothtw]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Nutloose, don’t believe everything you read in the press….

https://twitter.com/pinstripedline/s...557253121?s=21

Don't believe everything you read from Sir H, the man's clearly part of the official establishment (I think he describes himself as a civil servant, but nobody really knows).

[NutLoose]

Putin issues veiled nuclear war in Europe threat if Ukraine joins NATO and tries to recover the Crimea.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/08/vladi...nato-16066912/

Uk considering sending Typhoons and the Navy as support.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/08/russi...oyed-16067793/

Threatening nuclear war sounds like the final threat in his basket as all other threats he has issued have fallen on deaf ears.

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by melmothtw

Don't believe everything you read from Sir H, the man's clearly part of the official establishment (I think he describes himself as a civil servant, but nobody really knows).

Er, no he's not - or at least not any more. Also a reservist.

He has a realistic perspective on the actual facts and drivers behind stories, rather than the "surely something must be done/everything is terrible/horrendous waste of taxpayers money" headlines. There are often very good - or at least understandable - reasons why things are the way they are, rather than simplistic solutions in a complex world.

[ORAC]

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