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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 28th Aug 2022, 13:39
  #8561 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Sanctions start to bite - or rather to stop Russians being able to buy a bite…

(And yes, it’s steel, and not tin but tins…..)



Commodity giant Russia is running out of tin.

Due to a shortage of sheet steel, the country will soon face a shortage of tinned food and baby food lids, which were previously imported.

If no alternative is found, businesses will be forced to shut down
There used to be a steelworks in a little place called Mariupol. Named after the water nearby. Needs some TLC.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 14:11
  #8562 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
The 186K was a recent break down ex the UK MOD, including 200, 300 and POW's there were 1000 POW still on the books apparently....
Thanks, so it's the worst case scenario, however latest I saw from UK MOD was estimate of 50k total KIA/WIA (july 17th, BBC interview with Admiral Tony Radakin), and that would make more sense.

My issue with the number 180 is that it would mean that 65% of Russian ground forces (280000) would've been wiped out already. This would mean that the Russian front would've already collapsed and there would hardly be any troops left in any of the garrisons from Kola peninsula to Kuril islands.

Also, the roughly 50k KIA is Ukrainian figure with the UK and US figures being way much more conservative.
Then the turret numbers, as Z force has lost 1800 MBT's it would be up to 5200 tank crew members, but not all were blown up, some were just abandoned. In any case it woukd not be a number of significance otherwise than that those were specially trained crews, much harder to replace than the average DPR "volunteer".

I don't have more accurate numbers or direct knowledge so my assumptions are just that, but If we take the different estimates and average it out to 20-25k killed, we'd have a number of 80-100k discounted from the Z force. Which as a number is huge, but more plausible.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 17:34
  #8563 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
Thanks, so it's the worst case scenario, however latest I saw from UK MOD was estimate of 50k total KIA/WIA (july 17th, BBC interview with Admiral Tony Radakin), and that would make more sense.

My issue with the number 180 is that it would mean that 65% of Russian ground forces (280000) would've been wiped out already. This would mean that the Russian front would've already collapsed and there would hardly be any troops left in any of the garrisons from Kola peninsula to Kuril islands.

Also, the roughly 50k KIA is Ukrainian figure with the UK and US figures being way much more conservative.
Then the turret numbers, as Z force has lost 1800 MBT's it would be up to 5200 tank crew members, but not all were blown up, some were just abandoned. In any case it woukd not be a number of significance otherwise than that those were specially trained crews, much harder to replace than the average DPR "volunteer".

I don't have more accurate numbers or direct knowledge so my assumptions are just that, but If we take the different estimates and average it out to 20-25k killed, we'd have a number of 80-100k discounted from the Z force. Which as a number is huge, but more plausible.
Either way, it would seem to be unsustainable by Russia without a general mobilisation, which would be heading towards an accelerated collapse of his economy, and an increase in the likelihood of internal revolt. The latest activities are passing the point of being dissent, to selective attack. A review of the prior bad luck cases in Russia may suggest that much of that was done by Russians and not Ukrainians. That is conjecture but not outside of possibility.

The MBT losses have been pretty tough on Russian families, but they have been manned mainly by 3 man teams for most types. The fatalities to non fatal casualties are still high, but not near 100%, but they are still higher than the historical 1:3, which itself has always had variability between period, conflict, corps involved etc. For armour, it's always been pretty bad odds if hit by effective weapons. The ICVs of all types have been messed up by the munitions employed, the crew numbers seem to have been about as expected, the dismounts have been way less than full complements. For those, estimates based on losses of 10-13 tel per vehicle would have been overestimated, much of those vehicles have been running lower numbers of troops. The headquarter strikes have been devastating, and frequent, the number of officers that are known to have been killed so far, admitted by Russia was approaching 1000 a week ago. Those numbers would appear to be indicating higher total losses, as while Russia has to put senior staff in the field to get anything done, the figures within the oOB would not support a ratio of Jnr and Snr officers to enlisted/conscripted victims in the low numbers that are being indicated otherwise. Lada sales may give a better indication. In the background, the reports out of the groups of the LNR and DNR that had their "volunteers" going and and not coming back, they have had devastating losses, reported weeks ago by Perun on the manpower matters of both sides. The data that Perun derived was solely from Russian statements, and it was surprisingly close to the Ukrainian estimates, which supports the higher losses, however, Russia being Russia, while the fatalities were remarkably high, the provision of medical aid was being complained about by the LNR & DNR, complaining over equipment, support, lack of body armour and basic necessities. Russian losses may have a much more reasonable fatality to casualty ratio than the LNR, DNR teams. Same now for the Chechens and the Wagner groups. All parties have their politics in play, high numbers cause misgivings to general public if they are not invested the conflict.

Far too many on all sides for one mans ego/psychosis.

The same report gave the tel mission capable MBTs at around 3500, with just under 2000 out of action through the war to date. The total fleet that existed on the OOB was more than 2 times that, but much of the reserve is beyond repair. Per Krivosheev, (1997) Russia lost some 3/4 of their MBTs in round 2, and that really covered the period from 1942 through to the end, in the opening rounds, the USSR had little in the way of heavy tanks, and got hammered as a consequence. With the fielding of the T-34 and KV things improved, from a loss ratio of 7:1 to 1.4:1. The intensity of this conflict is up there, well above the loss rates in most modern regional conflicts, but below the WW's & Korea.




Krivosheev, G. I. (1997). Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses. Greenhill.



The other "Non War"


Last edited by fdr; 28th Aug 2022 at 17:58.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 17:35
  #8564 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkrai...eb2x&context=3

Aviation content, albeit briefly. Although apparently video'd in Latakia (Syria) the surviving elements of the unit have apparently been redeployed to the North as described earlier in this thread.

I can remember from my own time in the mob that this system really had our side worried when it was introduced. I wonder if the design of the Patriot and NASAMS launchers was specifically to avoid this problem at the expense of having to use directional, rotating equipment to send the missile on its way.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 18:01
  #8565 (permalink)  
 
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Hitting the Kherson bridge again.

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Old 28th Aug 2022, 18:25
  #8566 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
Either way, it would seem to be unsustainable by Russia without a general mobilisation, which would be heading towards an accelerated collapse of his economy, and an increase in the likelihood of internal revolt. ......

... The intensity of this conflict is up there, well above the loss rates in most modern regional conflicts, but below the WW's & Korea.
Unsustainable in the long run for Russia in any case, no arguing there. Hopefully Ukraine is the more resilient one (and the west keeps providing the goods as long as it takes).

The actual casualties will be a mystery for the generations to come, many historians will make a good living studying this war. And that means we can only make educated guess of the current situation (I doubt even the Russians know how many they've lost) but I'm having hard time believing in the 180.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 18:27
  #8567 (permalink)  
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What we are fighting against, or why we should providing aircraft and longer range munitions.

Russia is, through their use of gas, waging war against the West. If so we should fighting with our best weapons.

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly”

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/...xZaJJnxOIU2mPA

This is today's video of a Russian soldier who holds a skull of a Ukrainian soldier, saying, his goal is to kill everyone who identifies as Ukrainian.…
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 19:48
  #8568 (permalink)  
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What goes up…..

OWN GOAL: WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 posts this video of a Russian S-300 air defense system scoring a direct hit - on itself……
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 19:53
  #8569 (permalink)  
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What explosion????

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Dmitri Bulgako has proclaimed that all information regarding explosions on military objects in Crimea to be 'classified’.

Officials responsible for leaks will be ’punished’-- in order to ‘prevent panic’.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/...rainian-intel/

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Old 28th Aug 2022, 20:00
  #8570 (permalink)  
 
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Jeeze! That Russian Parliament International Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky clip by fdr (8547)..

At 13seconds reminded me of Finding Nemo.


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Old 28th Aug 2022, 21:24
  #8571 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ROC man View Post
The SR-71 had astro inertial navigation so this doesnt sound like anything new (R2D2). I guess they hope miniturise and improve accuracy for weapon purposes
I agree that astrotracking is decades old technology, in use as early as the 60’s, but I wonder about its precision, meeting positioning performance with the order of magnitude that todays military GPS does.
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 21:51
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Well…….

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Old 28th Aug 2022, 22:14
  #8573 (permalink)  
 
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Russia gifted an S300 system to Syria, but have taken it back to ship to Crimea

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...t-to-black-sea
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 23:05
  #8574 (permalink)  
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I thought they’d taken their matches and lighters away from them???

Russian coastal radar site burning south of Sevastopol, Crimea



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Old 28th Aug 2022, 23:19
  #8575 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
What goes up…..



OWN GOAL: WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 posts this video of a Russian S-300 air defense system scoring a direct hit - on itself……
That's a really old video
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Old 28th Aug 2022, 23:47
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That's a really old video
Have since learned that it dates back to 2016, which is why when I posted it at #8565 I included the comment about the unit since transferring (via the Bosporus, with Turkish approval, I've also just discovered..) to Ukraine.
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Old 29th Aug 2022, 01:16
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kA52 kill the other day attributed to Stormer.

Wreckage of a Ka-52 shot down on 08/25 has been attributed to the Alvis Stormer--identified by the viewing screen.Some of you may have seen this brief video from August 25, showing flaming wreckage of a Ka-52 helicopter in eastern Ukraine. The exact location isn’t identified yet. But what has been indeitified is the platform recording the aftermath and which more than likely shot it down—it’s been identified by others on twitter by the viewing system as being the Alvis Stormer.
https://nexth.city/ukrainewar/ka-52-...-alvis-stormer
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Old 29th Aug 2022, 03:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I thought they’d taken their matches and lighters away from them???

Russian coastal radar site burning south of Sevastopol, Crimea

No matches or lighter involved it was an electrical fire
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Old 29th Aug 2022, 06:35
  #8579 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
As to the invasion, check how many Ukrainian units, in Crimea, changed sides after the new, unelected government came to power in Ukraine. If only all invasions were so bloodless!
More details on this?
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Old 29th Aug 2022, 07:02
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I agree that astrotracking is decades old technology, in use as early as the 60’s, but I wonder about its precision
SR-71 manual gives a ten hour error of .3nm when using astro inertial, 2nm/hr for inertial.
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