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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 17th Jul 2022, 10:56
  #7101 (permalink)  
 
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Ammo dump? Not sure if that would result in one big and fairly symmetrical crater though.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 11:23
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Originally Posted by Willard Whyte
Ammo dump? Not sure if that would result in one big and fairly symmetrical crater though.
RAF Fauld?
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 11:33
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Guess, which country has delivered many tanks to Poland over many years before? This might be the very reason no more German overstock is left...
Spain wanted to supply Leopard 2A4’s to Ukraine but Germany has so far vetoed it.

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Old 17th Jul 2022, 11:45
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
RAF Fauld?
Thanks. So, in all probability an ammo dump then. Probably fits with the surrounding 'mini' craters caused by Ukrainian shells lobbed towards it and missing their target.

Crater looks to be ~50m diameter.

Last edited by Willard Whyte; 17th Jul 2022 at 16:38. Reason: Bad maths!
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 11:45
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
One would imagine (hope?) the US carefully considers the implications of losing the various bits of kit they're supplying the Ukrainians, in the event of local actions or a wider defeat etc. Pretty obvious any kit the Russians get hold of will be reverse engineered, possibly even shared with the Chinese.

The comment about the alleged captured vehicle being sold is interesting, given the recent FT article about western weapons being diverted and sold on the black market. I wonder if Russia has offered a bounty on these systems?

(Assuming this story is true and not more Russia propaganda BS..)
Some of the alleged captured weapons turning up in Syria were proved not to be. There was the two souvenir’s from Ukraine that turned up in a Moscow carpark when one went off in his car boot, the other was an NLAW. I read somewhere the Ukrainians promised to take out any captured HIMARS and one would assume they would for fear of supplies ceasing. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they have tracking installed.

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Jul 2022 at 11:59.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 12:04
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Spain wanted to supply Leopard 2A4’s to Ukraine but Germany has so far vetoed it.
Germany has very strict laws limiting the export of weapons delivered once to a partner country to third countries. Any NATO country will have unlimited access to new build german weapons but it cannot move those weapons elsewhere. This is part of the limitations and practices implemented after WW2.
This is why Germany is currently delivering weapons to NATO partners so that those partners can deliver their own (non-german) stock to support Ukraine. This way the law is legally respected.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 13:32
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Giving you an idea in Russias reduction in shelling.

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Old 17th Jul 2022, 14:06
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Germany has very strict laws limiting the export of weapons delivered once to a partner country to third countries. Any NATO country will have unlimited access to new build german weapons but it cannot move those weapons elsewhere. This is part of the limitations and practices implemented after WW2.
This is why Germany is currently delivering weapons to NATO partners so that those partners can deliver their own (non-german) stock to support Ukraine. This way the law is legally respected.
You speak as if these laws are immutable - they are not. If Scholz took his finger out of his arse this could happen very quickly (does not require parliamentary approval )


"This is why Germany is currently delivering weapons to NATO partners so that those partners can deliver their own (non-german) stock to support Ukraine"

I am only aware of the Americans doing this. What has Germany supplied , apart from 15 x Leo 2 A4's to Czech Republic? The following article explains that there is a major row between Germany and Poland about replacing the T 72 stocks Poland delivered to Ukraine.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...9-cbd8b045fb94

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Old 17th Jul 2022, 15:33
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Giving you an idea in Russias reduction in shelling.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsP...42688020275204
I'd contend that shows a reduction from both sides. Look at Donetsk which is a target of Ukrainian fire. I suspect we are going through a temporary lull in the fighting while both sides resupply and replenish.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 16:31
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Meanwhile on Russian state TV: Apti Alaudinov, the commander of Ramzan Kadyrov's Chechen detachment "Akhmat," tells state TV host Olga Skabeeva that Russian forces in Ukraine are fighting "holy war" against the LGBT & the Antichrist. He hopes Russia will soon face off with NATO.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 16:52
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Originally Posted by ORAC
He hopes Russia will soon face off with NATO.
That's another data point for removing Vodka from the breakfast menu. (One of my experiences in PfP with Russians was a working breakfast meeting. Most of us had coffee, the Russian officer had a glass half filled with Vodka, for breakfast. Still remember that, it was a bit of a surprise to me).
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 18:10
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Germany has very strict laws limiting the export of weapons delivered once to a partner country to third countries. Any NATO country will have unlimited access to new build german weapons but it cannot move those weapons elsewhere. This is part of the limitations and practices implemented after WW2.
This is why Germany is currently delivering weapons to NATO partners so that those partners can deliver their own (non-german) stock to support Ukraine. This way the law is legally respected.
not quite so, Finland bought 100 leopards as used from the Netherlands and 100 as used from Germany.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 19:05
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Finnland is included in favoured status receiving countries like Switzerland and others. I talked about German weapon deliveries to Ukraine which is a war zone unfortunately. The German laws were made exactly this way by the victors for a reason and it would open a can of worms to change them. Still the germans delivered their latest heavy gun Panzerhaubitze 2000.
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Old 17th Jul 2022, 23:12
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Needs no comment, other than I hope governments are listening.




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Old 17th Jul 2022, 23:26
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The posts for the Antonov accident have been moved.
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Old 18th Jul 2022, 01:15
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The way I read the situation is Ukraine is losing ground, ground that will cost them more lives to retake, they are grimly hanging on awaiting the weapons the west are promising, but are slow to deliver, and that is costing them in lives, civilian and military, but more importantly lives of their experienced professional troops, something they will struggle to replenish and that is the fault of the west.

I do wonder if anyone will ever buy tanks again from Germany or ammunition again from the Swiss because they have both shown their failings in all of this, the one advantage Russia appears to have is artillery and the ability to use it to pulverise cities, they need sufficient accurate longer range weaponary to take that on from a position out of reach of counter fire. They also need to be given a few long range HIMAR rounds to drop that bridge and cut off the resupply route.
Then they may have a chance, at the moment they are fighting a fight with one hand tied behind their backs.
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Old 18th Jul 2022, 03:45
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I do wonder if anyone will ever buy tanks again from Germany or ammunition again from the Swiss because they have both shown their failings in all of this
Sweden did the same when Oz was involved in Vietnam, refusing to supply ammunition for the Carl Gustav, eventually a deal was done with the ammunition passing through the hands of the UK Defense first.
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Old 18th Jul 2022, 05:43
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Originally Posted by megan
Sweden did the same when Oz was involved in Vietnam, refusing to supply ammunition for the Carl Gustav, eventually a deal was done with the ammunition passing through the hands of the UK Defense first.
Yes, and the Swiss initially too with the Turbo-Porter.
And the French with the Mirage. We shouldn't go French again - the choppers have been a failure, and we've just got out of that disastrous Sub deal.
However, I will concede the Airbus MRTT (KC-30) has been good. And I like their food.
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Old 18th Jul 2022, 05:52
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In regards to Russia capturing a HIMARS, I find it hard to believe that there isn't;

1) A tracking device installed.
1a) Load up an Excalibur shell and have a scrawl on it that says "That belongs to us and you're not allowed to use it".

2) Have some sort of self destruct/wiping sequence on the Hardware/CPU side, that the makers have access to.
2a) In my many - too long - computer times, I have come across many (situations), stories of hidden backdoors. Think CISCO routers that are used all over the world...?
2b) So they might get the shell of the vehicle, but all the secret sauce is in the computer stuff.




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Old 18th Jul 2022, 05:58
  #7120 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...opter-repairs/

Bulgaria, Russia clash over Ukrainian helicopter repairs

SOFIA, Bulgaria — Bulgaria’s defense capabilities will not be seriously affected by Moscow’s decision to suspend Russian helicopter repair certificates to local companies, the defense minister said Friday.

Dragomir Zakov said Bulgaria would also continue to repair Ukrainian military equipment.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement a day earlier that NATO and European Union member countries are supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine and planning their repair at plants in Eastern Europe.

In response to this, she explained, Russia is suspending permission for two Bulgarian companies and one Czech firm to carry out repairs and maintenance of Russian-designed helicopters.

The statement implies that Russia will also no longer provide spare parts.

Bulgaria had previously agreed to repair Ukrainian military equipment at its military factories, although it refused to send weapons directly.

Zakov said that Moscow’s decision would not seriously affect Bulgaria, nor would it hinder its repair of Ukrainian military equipment.

“What happened with gas has now happened with helicopter licenses,” Zakov said, referring to an earlier suspension of Russian gas deliveries to Bulgaria after it refused to pay in rubles….
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