Originally Posted by
henra
As much as I like your analysis and conclusion and would love to see Russia going a rational approach and choosing alternative 4, I have major difficulties seeing this happening.
Irrationality has brought them to where they are and I don't see the slightest sign of rationality suddenly kicking in. And I'm afraid meanwhile the problem is not only Putin any more. He has pushed the population (where a significant part were anyway feeling phantom pains for loss of the Soviet empire) so far in a direction that it will be very difficult to get himself out of the obligation to deliver. Any retreat will be seen as weakness and defeat by the people. Tyrants are typically overthrown when they are weak and compliant and not when they are strong and cruel. So, the better options for Russia are rather not the good options for Putin himself. That's why we will likely continue to see this tragedy for quite some time to come.
I would seriously doubt that would even be possible, withdrawing to the 2014 lines against a determined and now seriously better armed Ukrainian military. Plus an effectively thinned out and decimated male population of those supposed independent regions would require significant Russian presence to hold them, as well as the requirement to make restitutions and also the loss still of the significant mineral and energy reserves of the country.