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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Jul 2022, 09:46
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Would have made more sense to target both. First the mobile tank and second the stationary one. Two for the price of one?
Probably didn't have a line of sight on it.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 09:49
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
The link in post 7197 has some guy proposing covering the bridge with 15 cm thick steel slabs. That might just take down the bridge with gravity​​​​​​
I wonder if they could possibly throw a mobile bridge section across it if it would reach both supports, but then they could just hit it again.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:00
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??

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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:04
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Would have made more sense to target both. First the mobile tank and second the stationary one. Two for the price of one?
we have no knowledge of the situation other than one lost turret and one ran away. How was the line of sight, at such short distance it's a straight hit, not from the above as preferable, how many Javelins/LAWs the team had in total (you need one device per tank), what was there out of picture (something to protect maybe) etc. Or, maybe there was another team down the road waiting for the escapee to return (meaning that that was a trap). Main thing is that a 170k missile took out an MBT worth +1M plus a trained crew which both are hard to replace for the Russian criminals. Money very well spent
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:16
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Originally Posted by uxb99
If the US provides A10's won't they also need to supply more fighters?
A10 cannot survive without air superiority. It makes sense to supply more fighters to attrit the enemy air defences forced to engage the A10's.
The A10 won't survive alone.
No doubt the US are looking closely at how well the Ukr Su-25s are faring, also the state of Rus air defences now that HIMARS is in action. From the sounds of it Russian fighters have been keeping away from the front lines, so perhaps this threat can be discounted?
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:17
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Russian volunteers being given only 7 days training before being thrown into combat - the one reported here was deployed and on the battlefield within. 14 days of joining.

I would imagine that is more than the cannon-fodder being press-ganged in the Donbass.

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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:17
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Hmm. My bullsh*tometer is twitching a bit....
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 10:20
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
The link in post 7197 has some guy proposing covering the bridge with 15 cm thick steel slabs. That might just take down the bridge with gravity​​​​​​
Some dope on Twitter said they could be 'easily' filled by pouring concrete into the holes... The Russians would have a whole new reservoir if they did.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 11:15
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Hmm. My bullsh*tometer is twitching a bit....
in Russia lying is quite acceptable, everyone knows its a lie but its for a good reason.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 11:20
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Originally Posted by rattman
I think atm the k-9 chassis are imported and modified. Poland requested to be allowed in the a European MBT program and were rejected so think the leopard upgrade is now a no go, Bettig the leopard upgrade will be cancelled and the a K2's will 1 for 1 replace the leopard, leaving them with abrams and K2's
leopard upgrade is going ahead, expensive but they are already committed. Germany isnt going to be a arm supplier in future, don't know about France.
I wonder if Israel is being eliminated. The turret developed for the Borsuk costs $3m, if Korea is now suppling vehicles the Spike will fall by the wayside.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 11:34
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Originally Posted by peter we
leopard upgrade is going ahead, expensive but they are already committed. Germany isnt going to be a arm supplier in future, don't know about France.
I wonder if Israel is being eliminated. The turret developed for the Borsuk costs $3m, if Korea is now suppling vehicles the Spike will fall by the wayside.
At this rate Poland is going to be one of the best armed countries in Europe.

The likes of Switzerland will also fall by the wayside, given the games their arms suppliers have played too. I expect the ability to onward supply weapons (within reason) to become a common feature in future arms deals - countries won't want to be restricted in the way some have over recent months.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 12:35
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UK sending more arms to Ukraine

The Government will send hundreds of drones and anti-tank weapons and scores of artillery guns to Ukraine over the coming weeks to help fend off the Russian invasion.


Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s existing Soviet-era artillery will follow.

The Ministry of Defence said the weaponry will help bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend against Vladimir Putin’s “indiscriminate” use of artillery.

More than 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 L119 105mm artillery guns will be arriving shortly, the MoD added.

In excess of 1,600 anti-tank weapons and hundreds of loitering aerial munitions will also be sent.

Mr Wallace said: “The scale and range of equipment we are providing demonstrates the strength of our resolve.

“Together with our international partners, we will ensure Ukraine has the tools to defend their country from Putin’s illegal invasion.”
Britain to send fresh weaponry to Ukraine to fend off Putin’s invasion (msn.com)

Russia now seeking North Korean labourers for the Donbas in return for stolen wheat.

Russia expects North Korean labourers to be involved in rebuilding two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine, with Pyongyang likely to be paid in much-needed industrial equipment and wheat from areas of Ukraine that are now under the control of the Russian military.

Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador to North Korea, made the claim in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper, the Moscow Times reported.

Assisting North Korea in obtaining equipment, technology or currency would be a breach of United Nations sanctions designed to stop Pyongyang developing more nuclear weapons or advanced missiles. As a member of the UN Security Council, Russia has in the past supported sanctions on North Korea but is now seeking new allies as it faces its own trade and other embargoes.

"Highly qualified, hard-working and ready to work in the most difficult conditions, Korean builders will be an asset in the serious task of restoring social, infrastructural and industrial facilities destroyed by the retreating 'Ukronazis'", Mr Matsegora told the pro-Kremlin Izvestia, repeating the claim that the Ukrainian government is led by Nazis.

North Korea is the third nation to officially recognise Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics, after Russia and Syria.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, said the recognition of Pyongyang was "a triumph of diplomacy" and said he looked forward to "active and fruitful cooperation" with North Korea.
Russia requests North Korean labourers be sent to Donbas in exchange for wheat and machinery (msn.com)
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 13:00
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
The link in post 7197 has some guy proposing covering the bridge with 15 cm thick steel slabs. That might just take down the bridge with gravity​​​​​​
I did a quick calculation using bridge dimensions from Google; that would be about 82 million kg of steel.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 13:07
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Can anyone explain to me why exact numbers of systems/munitions are being sent to Ukraine and publicised ? I understand that there may be a public-relations effect for this, but is it not severely negated by the tactical effect ? If suddenly Himars are hitting among ammo depots, is that not better that possibly displaced depots from a week before ?

P.S I have read excerpt where Ukrianian sources have said they don't wish for such info to be refused yet simply wish for routes and timings to be changed.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 21st Jul 2022 at 17:15.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 13:07
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I did a quick calculation using bridge dimensions from Google; that would be about 82 million kg of steel.
Not to mention, would you really want to be one of the crew laying steel plates, even over just the current damage, knowing that the HIMARS have a precision of a few metres?
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 14:20
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Can anyone explain to me why exact numbers of systems/munitions are being sent to ukraine and publicised ? I understand that there may be a public-relations effect for this, but is it not severely negated by the tactical effect ? If suddenly Himars are hitting among ammo depots, is that not better that possibly displaced depots from a week befpre ?

P.S I have read excerpt where |Ukrianian sources have said they don't wish for such info to be refused yet simply wish for routes and timings to be changed.
Maybe its a part moral exercise for the Ukrainians, and part sending a signal to Russia that far from stopping we are continuing to replenish and rearm Ukraine.

Also there will be a lot more unpublished items pouring into the country. Take the Vampire version of one SPG, that was unknown to have been supplied until photos were seen of it in the field.

The M109 is possibly a good choice I think as they got a load from Belgium, so they will be experienced on type, good story about the ones from Belgium, they sold them for peanuts and went to by them back post modification to supply them to Ukraine only to be told they had all been sold and were in Ukraine see

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...e_company.html
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 14:25
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
I did a quick calculation using bridge dimensions from Google; that would be about 82 million kg of steel.
It wouldn't surprise me if UKraine phones the chap up in the donbas and offers to transport the plating for him.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 14:29
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Can anyone explain to me why exact numbers of systems/munitions are being sent to ukraine and publicised ?.
How do you know that the actual numbers and the published numbers are the same?
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 14:48
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Originally Posted by n5296s
Not to mention, would you really want to be one of the crew laying steel plates, even over just the current damage, knowing that the HIMARS have a precision of a few metres?
I came up with 32 million kg for the steel plating, 1000 tonnes per span - lol.
The interesting thing ( look on google maps) is that the dam @ Nova Kakhova (50 km to front line) has a small 20-30 metre bridge that runs over the canal between the lock gates. Destruction of this would not impact the reservoir. With Himars accuracy that could easily be taken out and the same would apply to repairs there - who would want to be in a russian bridge laying unit.
Much more of a problem to take out may be the box girder railway bridge in the east part of Kherson city , though it seems the approach is concrete rather than girders.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/An...2.7963477!10e5
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 15:00
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Originally Posted by Usertim
I came up with 32 million kg for the steel plating, 1000 tonnes per span - lol.
I got 33.5m kg based on 1420m long by 20m at 1180kg per m2 at 150mm thick.

I doubt Ukraine will want to take out the hydro-electric plant crossing, but they could keep targeting the roadway at the north end where the road is built on a causeway up to the dam structure.
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