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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Jul 2022, 15:46
  #7221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
I got 33.5m kg based on 1420m long by 20m at 1180kg per m2 at 150mm thick.

I doubt Ukraine will want to take out the hydro-electric plant crossing, but they could keep targeting the roadway at the north end where the road is built on a causeway up to the dam structure.
It would be the Russians attempting to destroy the dan as they leave may be the problem, here is that bridge


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Old 21st Jul 2022, 16:08
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Facinating analysis of the damage to the road bridge, they believe they were Excaliber shells that hit it.

Ok this is the translation of each section of the link below, the bottom link is in English

About the damaged Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson. I was wondering if it could really be MLRS missiles that caused the damage we see in the pictures.

A MLRS has 90kg HE. Here it is tested against a smaller bridge. But the road surface should be of equivalent dimensions.

The size of the holes varies. Some holes have not penetrated but are more like pits. I guess you try different settings on the spark plugs. You can set the ignition on directly or with delayed ignition, as the grenade penetrates into the construction.

The big hole on the left is probably two or three hits. Here you can see the small pits better.

How much damage does a 155mm M982 Excalibur grenade do? The grenade is precision-guided and guided towards its target using GPS or laser. The grenade strikes at a high angle, which is consistent with images of the damage where you do not see the butterfly pattern from low angles.

The grenade is penetrating. "Increment I has a unitary penetrating warhead for use against stationary targets" It can penetrate at different depths before it detonates. Below are pictures of a "regular" 155mm grenade that penetrates concrete and then detonates.

Here, the grenade penetrates 150 cm of concrete with rebar. The width of the hole is at least one meter.

Here the penetration is 56cm. The width maybe 1 meter?

Here 62cm penetration. Width?

At an angle of 20 degrees, the penetration decreases to 37 cm.

The size of the holes matches quite well with the test of 155mm grenades against concrete.



Damage assessment

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Old 21st Jul 2022, 16:11
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
I got 33.5m kg based on 1420m long by 20m at 1180kg per m2 at 150mm thick.

I doubt Ukraine will want to take out the hydro-electric plant crossing, but they could keep targeting the roadway at the north end where the road is built on a causeway up to the dam structure.
Yeah, you're right. I did the calc in pounds/feet and then converted to metric. Early morning, must have made an error somewhere.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 17:29
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Some dope on Twitter said they could be 'easily' filled by pouring concrete into the holes.
What's wrong with that ? The reinforcement comes from the metal and it doesn't really matter (AFAIK ) if it's rather twisted. Filling in the holes with concrete would allow passage of vehicles, but I have no idea up to what weight limit.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 18:08
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Nope, try reading my second link in 7223.

The bridge deck is supported along its length by 4 hollow box sections, these carry the weight of the bridge deck and the loads carrried upon it, two of these are damaged and punctured so the structural integrity of the length of bridge is compromised, a simple patch job is not going to do it.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 18:20
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Not an engineer, but bridge decks serve to distribute the load to the bridge pillars.
In this case, with the supporting box girders ripped open by explosives, that is no longer quite the case.
I'd be very queasy driving a point load such as a tank over this structure now, despite safety factors.

Separately, some of the images show a pattern of holes, presumably from submunitions.
The big hole may be from a unitary warhead, 95kg explosives according to the manufacturers website.
The effect would be greater if the bridge deck were not hollow, but even as is, I think the bridge is militarily a writeoff.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:05
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Perhaps the RF could test it by driving a couple of tanks over it … for confidence purposes? That would seem to be their simplistic approach, using conscript drivers of course (just in case).
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:06
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Read my posts in 7223 they think the damage is from Excalibur arty round not HIMARS.








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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:09
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
No doubt the US are looking closely at how well the Ukr Su-25s are faring, also the state of Rus air defences now that HIMARS is in action. From the sounds of it Russian fighters have been keeping away from the front lines, so perhaps this threat can be discounted?
Maybe but an A10 might encourage them to change tactics.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:11
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I know they are banned and politically sensitive but it's a shame Ukraine cannot shower the bridge with cluster munitions.
Denial is sometimes just as effective as destruction. Sometimes more so.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:14
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Russia uses clusters, ban or not.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:17
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russia uses clusters, ban or not.
Two wrongs doesn’t make a right, Nutty. Sadly, in this scenario, the right must prevail.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:19
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I agree, just pointing it out.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 19:34
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Read my posts in 7223 they think the damage is from Excalibur arty round not HIMARS.







HIMARs seems overkill. For a stationary target arty is more logical and probably cheaper.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 21:12
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Originally Posted by uxb99
HIMARs seems overkill. For a stationary target arty is more logical and probably cheaper.
At $180k per round excalibur is not cheap.
The Precision Guidance Kit is more like $12k
M31 is $150k according to the Ukranians, but they tend to exagerate.
dumb 155mm are $300

Last edited by peter we; 21st Jul 2022 at 22:28.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 21:26
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If those beams are ok - as they look to me - then the bridge is safe..?
So maybe some steel plates over holes would suffice after all..?

Not being a structural engineer or a missile explosive expert, how come (if was a HIMARS), didn't blow the s**t out of the bridge? Looks like it, went straight through the concrete.

Not sure if posted, but Ukraine have said they are are not going to release what weapons and ammo are going in.

Last edited by Obba; 21st Jul 2022 at 23:07.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 23:34
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With the announcement of Ukraine maybe getting some A10's, I thought this might be of interest - A10 vs Su25 Frogfoot in a dogfight.


I'm sure that the A10's won't be involved in to much dogfighting, they'll be going in as ground attack I think.

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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 01:19
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If you really want to wreck this bridge for a long time, you'd aim for a box beam to pillar joint.

If you hope to put a bridge out of easy use so that you can later repair the bridge for your own purposes, then you just blow a few holes in the deck.

​​​​​​
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 01:27
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Originally Posted by Obba
If those beams are ok - as they look to me - then the bridge is safe..?
So maybe some steel plates over holes would suffice after all..?

Not being a structural engineer or a missile explosive expert, how come (if was a HIMARS), didn't blow the s**t out of the bridge? Looks like it, went straight through the concrete.

Not sure if posted, but Ukraine have said they are are not going to release what weapons and ammo are going in.
The shot underneath was after the first strike, the holes looking into them was after the second strike and you are looking down and through the box beams, the big hole was three hits i read, so maybe one passed through the hole produced by another shell.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 05:20
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https://wartranslated.com/russians-u...k-of-russians/

The Russians under attack by the Russians?
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