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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Jul 2022, 19:32
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Looking at the publicly available maps, in the last 2 months Russia has managed to advance about 20 miles (30 km), on a frontline of about the same length (mostly the area near Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk). Adding other smaller advances, we are maybe talking an area of about 1000 square km. Ukraine has an area of about 600,000 square km.

So, basically, Russia only occupied an additional 0.16% of Ukraine in the last two months of fighting. At this rate, it would take Russia about 100 years to fully conquer Ukraine. Yes, I know, wars are not linear. But still, I would have expected more from a so called "superpower". I hope Russia's progress will get even slower, and that Ukraine will even start taking back some of its territory over the next months.
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Old 19th Jul 2022, 21:10
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
If true, and using any commonly accepted multiplier for additional" casualties" [wounded physically or mentally, sick, deserted, missing, PoW] of about 3 x, one arrives at an unbelievable total, surely?
A BBC report a couple of weeks ago quoted British intelligence estimates that Russia had lost about 20,000 by mid-June. I suspect the true total lies somewhere between that and the Ukrainian figure, but either way the figure of 38,500 seems unlikely to include wounded, based on a realistic multiplier.
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Old 19th Jul 2022, 21:37
  #7163 (permalink)  
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There are numerous intercepted Russian phone calls from troops back home reporting casualty rates exceeding 75% to make the figure not only believable, but an understatement….

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Old 19th Jul 2022, 22:32
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Thus, crudely, and ignoring wounded and sick returning to duty, 100,000 total hors de combat? Good news for Ukraine and NATO if true.

Imagine the grief in Russia, coffin money cars notwithstanding.
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Old 19th Jul 2022, 23:57
  #7165 (permalink)  
 
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That’s why they are cremating them in Ukraine, no body to return, listed as missing, no cash payout.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 01:00
  #7166 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...labss?ref=wrap

Are use of psycotics high in russia?
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 01:44
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KIA:WIA:MIA rates vary by circumstances.

​​​​​​WIA:KIA in tanks that toss turrets is close to zero.

If RF never sees a tank return, it's counted as MIA, whether it tosses a turret or the crew abandons it, and is taken POW or quietly makes its way home.

​​​​

Last edited by RatherBeFlying; 20th Jul 2022 at 13:29.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 02:02
  #7168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BlankBox
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...labss?ref=wrap

Are use of psycotics high in russia?
I don't know about psychotics, but the Russians (and the USSR before them) have a track record with performance-enhancing medications, at least for athletes. They may just have a fixation on the subject, and be projecting ther own activities onto others.

Or at least figure it's an excuse their own public will understand.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 06:05
  #7169 (permalink)  
 
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Polands dropping the $$$$$$, just announced 180 K2 MBT, 48 KA50 light fighters and 400 + assorted AFV including k-9's and K124's
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 06:25
  #7170 (permalink)  
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Meanwhile, in contrast, in Germany….

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cut military support for Ukraine despite promises to increase supplies, it is reported by Die Welt.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 08:48
  #7171 (permalink)  
 
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AE11S/12S

Anyone got any info on the above tooling around E of Warsaw at 550/600Kts (as shown on FR 24) If you need too shoot me after telling me donít bother replying.

A342
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 08:51
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Thatís why they are cremating them in Ukraine, no body to return, listed as missing, no cash payout.
Nutty

This was discussed early on and discounted as there was a) No proof b) Fuel requirement exorbitant.

Can you now supply any proof ?
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 09:39
  #7173 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ACW342
Anyone got any info on the above tooling around E of Warsaw at 550/600Kts (as shown on FR 24) If you need too shoot me after telling me donít bother replying.

A342
AE12S is showing as F/A-18C 164703 on ADSBExchange, and VMFA-323 arrived in Poland last month.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 10:39
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Will try to find the link re MIA

In the meantime it appears they have took out a complete radar system, it bet they never saw that coming..... or perhaps they did!


They hit the bridge again in Kherson

I have spoken to someone today who built multiple bridges going across the Dnipro, and was told that this is severe damage and it would not be safe for tanks or bigger vehicles to pass only small cars. If Ukraine keeps doing this the bridge will take a very long time to repair.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 10:58
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The attack on the radar system is interesting as it was reportedly some 60km behind the line of contact, suggesting longer range precision MRLS rockets are now in play. The radar in question was presumably deployed here to protect the Kherson supply routes, also possibly the western approaches to Crimea and Sevastopol.

Both this attack and the attack on the bridge in near Kherson are a statement of intent by Ukraine. The population of Crimea must be getting more than a little nervous...
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 11:37
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Possibly a build up too
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/euro...lack-sea-fleet

17


The Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea in 2020. In the background is the Moskva warship, which sank earlier this year. Ukraine is preparing to launch an offensive on the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula and the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed there, according to Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Volodymyr Havrylov.

“We are receiving anti-ship capabilities and sooner or later we will target the fleet,” Havrylov said in an interview with The Times newspaper in London. “Russia will have to leave Crimea if they wish to exist as a country.”

Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24. Moscow previously invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimea region.

Crimea is of particular strategic importance to Russia as it includes the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol. Another prized target for Ukraine would be the 18km (11-mile) bridge that links the Black Sea peninsula with mainland Russia.

Havrylov said that the recapture of the Snake Island, occupied by Moscow early in the invasion, was a first step. “We are ready to target them all over the Black Sea if we have that capability,” he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted by saying that Havrylov’s remarks confirmed the necessity of the “special military operation”, as the war is officially called in Russia and which aims, among other things, to “denazify” and “demilitarise” Ukraine.

“In our military calculations, in our plans, if everything will go as we think, we may, we will liberate our territories before the end of this year,” ambassador Sergiy Korsunsky said in a recent interview with Kyodo News.

“It may not be the end of the war, but we hope to push the Russian army back to Russia before the end of the year,” Korsunsky said.

Suggesting that more sophisticated arms like High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, and new advanced air defence systems provided by the United States and European nations will be deployed, he said, “We are now trying to make proper preparations for a counter-offence”.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu this week ordered generals to prioritise destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery weapons after Western-supplied weapons were used to strike Russian supply lines.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 11:53
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Netherlands comes on boad in helping train Ukrainian troops

Translation from link in twitter post

The Netherlands helps Britons train Ukrainian soldiers

News item | 15-07-2022 | 15:33

The Netherlands will help the United Kingdom (UK) with the large-scale training of Ukrainian soldiers. The British started this week in their own country. The intention is that Dutch military personnel will make a contribution from the end of August. Minister Kajsa Ollongren reports this today.

Ukrainian servicemen receive 4 weeks basic military training in the UK. This concerns, for example, shooting, basic military skills, but also military first aid. The UK's ambition is to train a total of 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 3 to 4 months, together with various partners.

Soldiers from various units of the Royal Netherlands Army and the Marine Corps will provide part of the training on behalf of the Netherlands. This is expected to happen from the end of August. Other countries are also interested in contributing. This cooperation ensures that capacity is available for the longer term and that the military can also sustain these training courses for a long time.

For the time being, these training courses have a minor effect on readiness. The training sessions can be at the expense of some exercises. But by using different units from both the Royal Netherlands Army and the Marine Corps, the effects are spread and limited.

Minister Ollongren: ďThe war in Ukraine is entering its sixth month. The Russian advance in the Donbas is admittedly slow, but steady. In addition, attacks on civilian targets are not shunned, as we saw yesterday with a Russian missile attack on civilian targets in Vinnytsia, far from the front. Western support for Ukraine remains crucial to stop Russian aggression.Ē
Ben Wallace's response.



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Old 20th Jul 2022, 12:04
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Originally Posted by BlankBox
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...labss?ref=wrap

Are use of psycotics high in russia?
Must keep an ear to the ground for further details on this.



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Old 20th Jul 2022, 12:56
  #7179 (permalink)  
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The President of Latvia, Egils Levits, has supported the initiative to revoke the citizenship of those residents who support a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 14:39
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Wait, Laughitoff is now telling the West if it continues to supply the likes of HIMARS that are pretty much screwing up Russia's grand plan, they will not limit their intended special bullshit to the Donbas, they might actually go forth and die in other parts of Ukraine...
Perhaps someone should mention he has already tried that with his attacks of Kyiv and the likes of Bucha.... and ultimately they also failed there too. In fact as they have been lobbing missiles here there and everywhere i cannot see what has changed, I wonder when he will bring up the Nukes again....

It is highlighting Russia's desperate situation on the ground and their attempts to rescue something from their megga F**k up.. We can go to war with our neighbour and kill and massacre them with the Worlds, the Ukrainian war's second best army, but shock horror, please stop arming them with stuff that is better than our kit because they are killing us.
Awaiting in anticipation of the future dive site consisting of the Black Sea fleet.

Russia has threatened to wage war across Ukraine if the West delivers long-range weapons to Kyiv.

Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, said the geographical objectives of Moscow's "special military operation" are no longer limited to the eastern Donbas region.

He added that Kremlin forces will expand still further if the West delivers long-range weapons to Kyiv, RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency reported.

President Vladimir Putin claimed the invasion was to demilitarise and "denazify" Ukraine but would focus on the "liberation of Donbas" after his forces failed to take the capital Kyiv.

It comes as Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said that the United States will send four additional high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) to Ukraine.
Ukraine war: Russian invasion no longer limited to Donbas, warns Sergei Lavrov (msn.com)
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