Is Ukraine about to have a war?
first up, John Mearsheimer.... makes a case that is predicated on blaming the victims for the actions of the aggressors. His central theme is that NATO is the aggressor, not sure that a body count around the border of Russia would support that contention. But, it is an opinion, and he has a right to voice it, and others have a right to challenge his curious stance.
Belovezh Accords were signed on 8 December 91, with Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine being signatories on that day. All 3 states declared that the USSR no longer existed. Ukraine didn't become a part of Russia, they became a member of the CIS along with most of the rest of the former USSR on 21 Dec 91. Ukraine had been a member of the USSR from arguably 28-DEC-1921 with the agreement of the plenipotentiary delegations agreeing to the Treaty on the creation of the USSR, which was then signed on the 30-DEC-1921, at the Bolshoi theatre, better used for ballet. So between Dec1921 and DEC 1991, Russia and Ukraine happened to be states within a common system, Russia had no right over Ukraine, and Ukraine did not become a vassal state to Russia. IN 1933, for their choice of bedfellows, some 4M (3.5-4.0 dependent on source) Ukrainians were starved to death by the central govt in Moscow. Jeffrey Mankoff of the CSIS wrote a reasonable background paper in April 2022, https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...y-and-conflict. It is light on the early history other than an attribution to Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn that neglects the details of about 800 years of history that contradict his opinion. Overall...
While the inhabitants of modern Ukraine have maintained political and linguistic identities distinct from Russia for centuries, Ukrainian nationalism—the belief that Ukrainians constitute a distinct nation that should have its own state—emerged during the nineteenth century, when what is now Ukraine was partitioned between Russia and Austria-Hungary, which controlled the western Ukrainian regions of Galicia, Bukovina, and Transcarpathia. The comparatively liberal Habsburgs tolerated the Ukrainian national movement—even providing support for Ukrainian forces who fought against Russia during World War I and helping Ukraine achieve a brief independence after the Russian Empire collapsed.
The Russian Empire, on the other hand, persecuted Ukrainian activists and organizations. Russian authorities argued that Ukrainian nationalism was an artificial creation of Vienna aimed at what a senior diplomat termed “disruption of the Russian tribe [[i]plemeni].” The minister of internal affairs issued a decree in 1863 banning publication and instruction in the Ukrainian language that remained in force until 1905. Ukrainian writers and activists, such as Taras Shevchenko, regarded as the father of Ukrainian literature, were arrested and exiled.
The Russian Empire, on the other hand, persecuted Ukrainian activists and organizations. Russian authorities argued that Ukrainian nationalism was an artificial creation of Vienna aimed at what a senior diplomat termed “disruption of the Russian tribe [[i]plemeni].” The minister of internal affairs issued a decree in 1863 banning publication and instruction in the Ukrainian language that remained in force until 1905. Ukrainian writers and activists, such as Taras Shevchenko, regarded as the father of Ukrainian literature, were arrested and exiled.
On Kleptocrats, there are a few of them out there for sure, some end up with justice prevailing, others don't, has always been so. As an argument, blaming any other country as "Ukraine", which is the victim of aggressive invasion, is morally bankrupt. Not even Vlad stooped to that level of intellectual ennui.
The Russia largesse in 1932-33 was known as the holodomor, морити голодом, moryty holodom, "to kill by starvation".
"Russian" nurturing kindness to Ukrainians, c1932.
Article 5 The High Contracting Parties acknowledge and respect each other's territorial integrity and the inviolability of existing borders within the Commonwealth.
AGREEMENT ESTABLISHING THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
We, the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation (RSFSR) and Ukraine, as founder States of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and signatories of the Union Treaty of 1922, hereinafter referred to as the High Contracting Parties, hereby declare that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality no longer exists. On the basis of the historical commonality of our peoples and the ties that have developed between them, and bearing in mind the bilateral agreements concluded between High Contracting Parties, Desirous of setting up lawfully constituted democratic States, Intending to develop our relations on the basis of mutai recognition of and respect for State sovereignty, the inalienable right to self-determination, the principles of equality and non-intervention in internal affairs, of abstention from the use of force and from economic or other means of applying pressure and of settling controversial issues through agreement, and other universally recognized principles and norms of international law, Considering that the further development and strengthening of relations of friendship, good-neighbourliness and mutually advantageous cooperation between our States are in accord with the vital national interests of their peoples and serve the cause of peace and security, Confirming our adherence to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, the Helsinki Final Act and the other documents of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe,
We, the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation (RSFSR) and Ukraine, as founder States of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and signatories of the Union Treaty of 1922, hereinafter referred to as the High Contracting Parties, hereby declare that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality no longer exists. On the basis of the historical commonality of our peoples and the ties that have developed between them, and bearing in mind the bilateral agreements concluded between High Contracting Parties, Desirous of setting up lawfully constituted democratic States, Intending to develop our relations on the basis of mutai recognition of and respect for State sovereignty, the inalienable right to self-determination, the principles of equality and non-intervention in internal affairs, of abstention from the use of force and from economic or other means of applying pressure and of settling controversial issues through agreement, and other universally recognized principles and norms of international law, Considering that the further development and strengthening of relations of friendship, good-neighbourliness and mutually advantageous cooperation between our States are in accord with the vital national interests of their peoples and serve the cause of peace and security, Confirming our adherence to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, the Helsinki Final Act and the other documents of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe,
Last edited by fdr; 11th Jul 2022 at 18:01.
Excellent post fdr.
Regarding the training the Ukrainians are currently receiving, I wonder if there's any higher level work going on with their NCOs etc? Would be great if they could get on their game regarding fire + manoeuvre tactics, something the Russians have comprehensively failed to demonstrate to date. I can imagine the fun & games if they managed a breakthrough in force through the Russian lines. If they did it right it could prompt a local or wider collapse.
Regarding the training the Ukrainians are currently receiving, I wonder if there's any higher level work going on with their NCOs etc? Would be great if they could get on their game regarding fire + manoeuvre tactics, something the Russians have comprehensively failed to demonstrate to date. I can imagine the fun & games if they managed a breakthrough in force through the Russian lines. If they did it right it could prompt a local or wider collapse.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
To add to that Russia is now dumping on them, raping, pillaging and using them as canon fodder, the very same people they “came to help”
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Ukrainians training in the U.K. nice to see Ben Wallace meeting them, the more I see of him the more impressed I am, I do wish he would run.
It’s good to see we are kitting them out too.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/d...-across-the-uk
Using the world-class expertise of the British Army we will help Ukraine to rebuild its forces and scale-up its resistance as they defend their country’s sovereignty and their right to choose their own future.
Around 1,050 UK service personnel are deploying to run the programme, which will take place at MOD sites across the North West, South West and South East of the UK. Each course will last several weeks and will be conducted by elements from 11 Security Force Assistance Brigade.
The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat. Based on the UK’s basic soldier training, the course covers weapons handling, battlefield first aid, fieldcraft, patrol tactics and the Law of Armed Conflict.
The Government has rapidly procured AK variant assault rifles for the training programme, meaning Ukrainian soldiers can train on the weapons they will be using on the front line. This effort was supported by the Welsh Guards, who tested more than 2,400 such rifles in 17 days to ensure they were ready for the Ukrainians to commence their training.
The UK has also gifted clothing and equipment to support Ukrainian soldiers in their training and deployment back to Ukraine. Each soldier will be issued with:
It’s good to see we are kitting them out too.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/d...-across-the-uk
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who visited the training this week, said:
This ambitious new training programme is the next phase in the UK’s support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their fight against Russian aggression.Using the world-class expertise of the British Army we will help Ukraine to rebuild its forces and scale-up its resistance as they defend their country’s sovereignty and their right to choose their own future.
Around 1,050 UK service personnel are deploying to run the programme, which will take place at MOD sites across the North West, South West and South East of the UK. Each course will last several weeks and will be conducted by elements from 11 Security Force Assistance Brigade.
The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat. Based on the UK’s basic soldier training, the course covers weapons handling, battlefield first aid, fieldcraft, patrol tactics and the Law of Armed Conflict.
The Government has rapidly procured AK variant assault rifles for the training programme, meaning Ukrainian soldiers can train on the weapons they will be using on the front line. This effort was supported by the Welsh Guards, who tested more than 2,400 such rifles in 17 days to ensure they were ready for the Ukrainians to commence their training.
The UK has also gifted clothing and equipment to support Ukrainian soldiers in their training and deployment back to Ukraine. Each soldier will be issued with:
- Personal protective equipment including helmets, body armour, eye protectors, ear protectors, pelvic protection, and individual first aid kits
- Field uniforms and boots
- Cold and wet weather clothing
- Bergens, day sacks and webbing
- Additional equipment required for field conditions including ponchos, sleeping bags, and entrenching tools
What utter ballcocks, The majority of the free world speaks English, does that then justify the U.K. invading those Countries to liberate them? Of course not, but Russia seems to see it as a justification.
To add to that Russia is now dumping on them, raping, pillaging and using them as canon fodder, the very same people they “came to help”
To add to that Russia is now dumping on them, raping, pillaging and using them as canon fodder, the very same people they “came to help”
Not excusing current Ru behaviour btw!
Damn the a guy keeps track of the 200 list has just added another major general, he is also trying to track down the rumored deaths of another 4-5 in the last week killed by himars/m270 strikes, one strike killed Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps (military unit 73954, Simferopol) , Major General Nasbulin; + 4 colonels
OH and russia has had to goto iran to beg some drones off them
OH and russia has had to goto iran to beg some drones off them
Last edited by rattman; 11th Jul 2022 at 21:38.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Film of Ukrainian training.
In an article in focus.de today, there was discussion about training Ukrainian troops on the PzH2000. What interested me though, was the fact that it stated that a colonel was the commander of all artillery in the Bundeswehr. It didn't say how many guns/gunners that is, but isn't a colonel a low rank to be in charge of a whole "arm". ?
The defense portfolio has not been a place for aspiring politicians in Germany, no budget clout. Ursula von der Leyen.was able to leave the post for the EU Commission Presidency thanks only to Angela Merkel's support.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
That’s one Big Bang, it makes sense, take out a rail junction etc, Russia will have it back up and running in days, let them train it in, all loaded and unloaded by hand, then truck it, again all hand loaded and unloaded to a depot over no doubt several days or weeks then drop a few shells on it and bang, all your christmases come at once. And all that effort, fuel and wear and tear on you transports come to nought.
That’s one Big Bang, it makes sense, take out a rail junction etc, Russia will have it back up and running in days, let them train it in, all loaded and unloaded by hand, then truck it, again all hand loaded and unloaded to a depot over no doubt several days or weeks then drop a few shells on it and bang, all your christmases come at once. And all that effort, fuel and wear and tear on you transports come to nought.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...C84enkyvYqAAAA
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...C84enkyvYqAAAA
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Post Big Bang, I think one could decribe the result as successful
Russian Air Force to Istanbul
A RF Tupolev 134 now looking to make an approach into one of Istanbul's airports. Wonder what that is about?
Sunday Times this week a report on interviews with Ukrainian troops in Donbas being slaughtered by overpowering, superior firepower, lacking modern kit and even basic arty shells. We tend not to hear about that side of things.
Sunday Times this week a report on interviews with Ukrainian troops in Donbas being slaughtered by overpowering, superior firepower, lacking modern kit and even basic arty shells. We tend not to hear about that side of things.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Of interest to you who fly.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-n...#liveblog-body
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
On one report this talks about an ad hoc van mounted Brimstone system being taken out, but looking at it I would say you see the three Brimstones launched and then the three Brimstones hitting targets, what do you think?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Brimsto...d_query&f=live
https://twitter.com/search?q=Brimsto...d_query&f=live
b. One of the lads looks like he stood waay too close to said vehicle when it launched the Brimstone.
c. Who knows if the clip at the end of something ablaze in the distance relates to the vehicle seen at the beginning.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
It's the three explosions in quick succession that look like missile hits?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,995
Received 1,371 Likes
on
616 Posts
Italian journalist points out the Russians ambitions as they say they want to link up with Transnitria.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...lensky-updates
VLADIMIR Soloviev, a popular Russian talk show host and friend of President Vladimir Putin, revealed Moscow's real war ambitions, and they go beyond Donbas, which is currently under intense fighting.
Soloviev was queried on Italian live TV over why, if Moscow is interested in Donbas, the region made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, forces are attacking Kharkiv and going south to reach Odesa. He asks: "Where do you want to go? What is your goal?" The Kremlin propagandist replies: "To Transnistria, to be precise." Soloviev, a sanctioned oligarch, then tries to ramble on, but the host stops him, saying: "No, no, no, wait – this is interesting." He points at the several territories that have come under attack since February 24 until reaching Transnistria — an unofficial breakaway state internationally recognised as part of Moldova — and claims: "So, you want to take all this area of Ukraine to arrive here. Then, the Donbas has nothing to do with it. It is just an excuse." Soloviev remains quiet. In a challenging tone, the host adds: "You want half of Ukraine. You want to take the Black Sea from Ukraine. Do you think that Ukraine will allow this? Do you think that we — Italians, Europeans, NATO members — can allow such a situation? It is frankly impossible."
Italian journalist points out the Russians ambitions as they say they want to link up with Transnitria.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...lensky-updates
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...lensky-updates
... the Donbas has nothing to do with it. It is just an excuse." Soloviev remains quiet. In a challenging tone, the host adds: "You want half of Ukraine. You want to take the Black Sea from Ukraine. Do you think that Ukraine will allow this? Do you think that we — Italians, Europeans, NATO members — can allow such a situation? It is frankly impossible."
It's , it's not only possible, but it's slowly unfolding in front of us ... unless something changes substantially at the political level. Given the Italian and French appeasement position as regards "not humiliating" Russia/Putin, (have they walked back from that? If so, I missed a memo), the Italians and some of the EU are engaged in enabling behavior. And others are not.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...lensky-updates
