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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 04:18
  #7541 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Good advice wrt The New York Times perhaps. Should I switch to the Washington Post?
Iirc, Bismarck's counsel was not to believe anything until it had been officially denied. That does clear the in box pretty effectively.
Well, I guess that would then apply to all the stuff you post. Pretty well clears the in box indeed.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 09:52
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 10:03
  #7543 (permalink)  
 
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Russia building ghost bridges near Kherson

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ors-in-ukraine
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 10:20
  #7544 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting vid on the state of the Russian economy:


Open source academic paper by the same commentator:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 10:42
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
You are thinking big stuff, got to about 2.10 on this, it is the weapon the link says was probably used. A shoulder launched weapon and with a tin roof I would say that lifted due to the pressure while the weapon did its worst below, hence the walls etc still standing... poor guys, did not deserve that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrDXY6eTdVk
How very Russian to demonstrate the anti-vehicle effects of the weapon.. on an ambulance (at around 2:29 in the video)
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 12:04
  #7546 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The physical evidence of the building - and lack of evidence such as a crater precludes the Russian explanation.

They could scatter fragments of a torpedo around the scene - it wouldn’t make a submarine attack any more plausible….
More for the courts to look at in due course. Your observations appear to be pretty compelling, and Russia's denial of the ICRC access reinforces the suspicion that Russia has once again committed war crimes. Right now, would be more surprised if they didn't commit atrocities or war crimes.

For Etudiant... Russia has only failed to act honorably on around a dozen occasions with their former friends since 23 DEC1991...
  • Two wars in Chechnya. ("anti-terrorist operation")
  • Chechnya Insurgency
  • Russia-Georgia war. (same justification, same lies, same "peacekeepers")
  • Abkhazia,
  • South Ossetia
  • Ukraine 1.0,
  • Ukraine 2.0
  • Syria
  • Nagorno Karabakh
  • Tajikistan
  • Transdniestria
  • East Prigorodny
  • Dagestan
  • Ingushetia
  • North Caucasus Insurgency
  • think I missed a few where Russia just ran the false flag to set off a conflagration
"Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, sauté it. There's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it."

Whatever way you slice it with your box cutter, Russia has lied, dishonored its word, and interfered with its neighbors. It has false flagged so much that its word is meaningless. That the population takes comfort from the lies of the Kremin is a sad testament to the effects of historical cruelty by the Kremin to the citizenry. When you need the guns pointing inwards due to dissent even in the face of murder and oppression, it doesn't look like a healthy environment.

Far too many kreminals.


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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 12:18
  #7547 (permalink)  
 
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The fact that all the beds are still in nice rows means it wasn't an artillery shell, nor an MRLS.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 14:47
  #7548 (permalink)  
 
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All change, this train will terminate here.

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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 15:02
  #7549 (permalink)  
 
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They are getting better at demining

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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 15:15
  #7550 (permalink)  
 
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Russia blows up russian Train killing many.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-...-50260570.html

3 russians walk into a bar.

byt' dolzhnym
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 15:43
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I would say as a layman this must be accurate.

The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains.
/1
Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone
/2
When this is over, the parts of those service branches left unscathed are conscripts, those officers or NCOs they didn't trust to go in the first place (who are back at home garrisons), senior officers who received commissions as Soviet officers (50/60 year olds) and
/3
....those who survived in Ukraine, bringing back combat stress/trauma/criminality with them, right back into the barracks. This will be a toxic brew for incoming conscripts for years to come. Without significant oversight the conditions hazing could get out of control
/4
Then, add in the mass casualty events that the Russian military has not coped with since WW2, being sent in unprepared for the Kremlin's war of choice, the lies, the war crimes, atrocities, the list goes on and on.
/5
In sum, the numbers of Russian casualties are severe enough -- but the damage that will ricochet around inside those service branches after this war is over, will be worse.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...350342148.html
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 16:35
  #7552 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
All change, this train will terminate here.

https://twitter.com/uawire/status/1554465240867393536
”Please move to the nearest emergency exit, taking nothing with you … “
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 17:06
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Medvedev continues his ranting. And this nutcase is the deputy chairman of the security council of Russia.

"Medvedev's account calls for occupying Georgia, Kazakhstan, aide claims it's been hacked. Dmitry Medvedev, an ex-president and deputy chairman of Russia' Security Council, had published a post on social network VK saying that Georgia should be merged into Russia."

"He also said that Kazakhstan is an artificial state, accusing it of launching a "genocide" against Russians and adding that order will be restored only when Russia interferes. The post was deleted from Medvedev’s account, and a Medvedev aide said the account had been hacked."

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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 17:17
  #7554 (permalink)  
 
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Russia should be merged into Georgia sounds better.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 17:17
  #7555 (permalink)  
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About that plan of shipping Ukrainian wheat via the Danube-Rhine canal to the North Sea ports….

CHART OF THE DAY: Rhine barge costs beyond the chokepoint of Kaub are rising very fast, approaching the record high set during the 2018 drought.

Kaub water gauge stands at 62cm (down from 150cm in early July), and set to drop to 45cm by weekend. Below 40-35cm barge traffic stops…
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 23:14
  #7556 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
About that plan of shipping Ukrainian wheat via the Danube-Rhine canal to the North Sea ports….



CHART OF THE DAY: Rhine barge costs beyond the chokepoint of Kaub are rising very fast, approaching the record high set during the 2018 drought.

Kaub water gauge stands at 62cm (down from 150cm in early July), and set to drop to 45cm by weekend. Below 40-35cm barge traffic stops…
If the Odessa port shipping option remains intact, it should ease the crunch considerably. Afaik, there are over 20 ships waiting for clearance. No idea whether crews are on board though
Imho, the success of this effort depends on it working for both Russia as well as Ukraine. So any report of Russian fertilizer getting delivered would be evidence that the deal is being fully implemented.
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Old 3rd Aug 2022, 01:46
  #7557 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russia should be merged into Georgia sounds better.
Now that's a post you ought to delete, given how mind numbingly dim that statement is.
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Old 3rd Aug 2022, 06:52
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Old 3rd Aug 2022, 10:30
  #7559 (permalink)  
 
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UK MoD: "As a result of a Ukrainian strike against a Russian ammunition train in Kherson oblast, southern Ukraine, it is highly unlikely the rail link connecting Kherson with Crimea remains operational."

This sounds good. Even though the invaders are probably able to repair the link in a few days, it shows that it may well be cut again in the third day. The same kind of pressure the Snake Island got. Makes life miserable for the russkies as resources like security and hardware are then needed for repairs causing lack of resources in the battle field in terms of supplies, weapons and troops, eventually they need to abandon the weak rail link and need to start driving trucks via land but they don't have enough trucks and convoys are vulnerable too... in a few months the weather starts to deteriorate temperature dropping close to zero at night with rainfalls. Hopefully Ukraine gets as much supplies from the west as possible as fast as possible before the winter to equip the hundreds of thousands of troops Ukraine is getting out of the training, at the same time the Russian resources are being eaten out meaning they need to scrape even older and worse equipment from the stock.


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Old 3rd Aug 2022, 10:36
  #7560 (permalink)  
 
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And the good Russians

Beyond the Russian military dead, maimed physically or mentally, corrupt, sadistic, incompetent will be the intrinsically genuinly decent blokes. They will exist........
these will be much like our regular forces as humans BUT WITHOUT BELIEF, ETHOS, LEADERSHIP, PROPER TRAINING,POOR EQUIPMENT, BAD MEMORIES etc.
These potentially good guys will be no match for their enemies fighting a just war, a just war by any standards of ancient statehood law.
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