Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/st...fdAFkxwSp6ssHA

Satellite imagery confirms three MiG-31K/I (Kinzhal missile-equipped) have been deployed to the Kaliningrad Chkalovsk Air Base.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

Is this idea applicable only to aircraft or would the technology be integrated with warheads?

I note in the Draper slides that only lines of position from two different celestial bodies are required to determine position. But unless the relative azimuths are ideal (90 degrees) and error sources are zero or ignored, it’s been a better practice to have at least three LOPs from bodies roughly 120 degrees azimuth apart, in order to triangulate and minimize contributions of systematic error.

I don’t know the technology, but I suppose they have a way of observing stars even in daytime.

I read somewhere they could see through clouds and in daylight… IR? With everything I imagine it will work down to weapons.

[ROC man]

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

Is this idea applicable only to aircraft or would the technology be integrated with warheads?

I note in the Draper slides that only lines of position from two different celestial bodies are required to determine position. But unless the relative azimuths are ideal (90 degrees) and error sources are zero or ignored, it’s been a better practice to have at least three LOPs from bodies roughly 120 degrees azimuth apart, in order to triangulate and minimize contributions of systematic error.

I don’t know the technology, but I suppose they have a way of observing stars even in daytime.

The SR-71 had astro inertial navigation so this doesnt sound like anything new (R2D2). I guess they hope miniturise and improve accuracy for weapon purposes

[MAINJAFAD]

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

Is this idea applicable only to aircraft or would the technology be integrated with warheads?

I note in the Draper slides that only lines of position from two different celestial bodies are required to determine position. But unless the relative azimuths are ideal (90 degrees) and error sources are zero or ignored, it’s been a better practice to have at least three LOPs from bodies roughly 120 degrees azimuth apart, in order to triangulate and minimize contributions of systematic error.

I don’t know the technology, but I suppose they have a way of observing stars even in daytime.

Auto astro tracking navigation systems have been used on weapons systems since the late 1950's. SM-62 Snark cruise missile for sure, Skybolt was going to use it and I'm pretty sure that Trident D5 uses it as well.

[NutLoose]

Sweet

Twitter

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I read somewhere they could see through clouds and in daylight… IR? With everything I imagine it will work down to weapons.

At various wavelengths there is negligible attenuation of a signal from CO2, H2O etc.... Another benefit of a celestial auto-tracker is that apart from position to high accuracy. it could give a complete stable platform output, 3D attitude without any gyros, 3D velocity vectors, and absolute position without interference and with tolerance to jamming.

Separately, the Russian's seem to be only interested in their domestic consumers of propaganda now, or they are heading towards a national bi-polar personality disorder... the dissonance with reality is painful to watch.

Twitter

I would recommend an extended course of Haldol or similar for the occupants of the Kremlin to assist their return to reality.

Side effects may include

• Weight gain;
• Sexual problems;
• Drowsiness;
• Dizzyness;
• Restlessness;
• Dry mouth;
• Constipation;
• Nausea;
• Blurred vision;
• Low blood pressure;
• Seizures;
• low WBC

Don't mix antipsychotics with Vodka.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/citeam_en/status...zRmfLoVpRvFEkw

In the past few months, we and other analyst have watched the formation and training of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, first publicly reported by Ukrainian intelligence back in June. Now it is being deployed to the Ukrainian border.

Photo and video evidence shows trains with a Buk air defense system and T-80BV and T-90M tanks. Per Russian Railways database, they are heading deployed from Mulino, 3rd AC's training base, to the Ukrainian border close to Taganrog, Rostov region…..

It is currently unknown where the 3rd AC will deploy, but the frontlines closest to the destination of the trains (Neklinovka station in southern Rostov region) are Donetsk and Zaporizhia region.….

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/kaptainloma/stat...zRmfLoVpRvFEkw

A significant reduction took place with elements of the Northern Fleet leaving the Mediterranean following a deployment that started on Feb-11.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

the formation and training of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, .

The brand new 3AC of Russias Western Milirary District was apparently formed in June and considered to be 15500 in strength consisting of "volunteer" men aged 18-50 without prior military experience. So the army is new and people have had a very short training period and based on the information they will be thrown to worst places. That should end well both militarily and for the civilians as there has been reports of these volunteers abusing the locals around their base in Mulino, so how will they behave in the war zone?

More importantly these people aren't from the land far far away, these are reported to be from eg Saratov, Samara, Ulyanovsk, and Kurgan oblasts which are west of Ural. What I am trying to say is that losses are closing Moskva.

Even though they are apparently equipped with the best kit the Russian army has to offer, are they able to use the gear? Or will they just drive the T90's into mine fields in a row like we've seen constantly. Or use the BUKs red on red. Or just mutine and refuse fighting once its HIMARS o'clock.

[NutLoose]

It appears that collaborators do not need to check their vehicles. Another one bites the dust. Slow mo it and you can see a small kamikaze drone come in from the right first couple of secs.

Twitter

[MAINJAFAD]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

It appears that collaborators do not need to check their vehicles. Another one bites the dust. Slow mo it and you can see a small kamikaze drone come in from the right first couple of secs.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...DT4ZrHv7ErAAAA

Special Kherson Cat is taking the piss. There is a small bird (looks more like a Swift to me than a Swallow) that fly's into the shot and is just in front of the driver's door when the bomb goes off.

[Buster Hyman]

Originally Posted by uxb99

Does show the accuracy of modern weapons.

I'm going to play Devils Advocate here, but how would you know if they missed a bridge over water?
(Not having a go, as I'm sure they're accurate shots)

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD

Special Kherson Cat is taking the piss. There is a small bird that (looks more like a Swift to me than a Swallow) that fly's into the shot and is just in front of the driver's door when the bomb goes off.

Yes, more like swift, and more like swift behaviour

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

I'm going to play Devils Advocate here, but how would you know if they missed a bridge over water?
(Not having a go, as I'm sure they're accurate shots)

'cuz Art Garfunkels crystal clear notes would be lamenting that fact...

[fdr]

Originally Posted by uxb99

Does show the accuracy of modern weapons. I fear the next war will be focused on space. Knock out the GPS satellite systems.

Hopefully Z force will have a small deductible on their insurance on the pontoon sections. I was offered a whole bunch of French built bridging equipment a couple of months back (long boring story), the pontoons are surprisingly complex, but lots of them around, the carriers for them, not so much, they would be great little quadcopter targets of opportunity. It will be interesting to see what if any off axis terminal guidance the Ukrainians can muster from their munitions. My bet, it is more than 20 degrees for high apogee paths, and for sea skimmers... more than 90. Would be putting money on the people dowstream getting debris in their fishing nets. Being in the lee only seems like a good idea, assuming that the other side is less resourceful than the party making the assumption. Recent history suggests that Ukraine is resourceful, and adaptive.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Yes, more like swift, and more like swift behaviour

Special Kherson Cat is one cool feline. The RSPCA will be up in arms like Amnesty... That was a lot of bang to take out a pigeon.
Explosion looks like it was right under the front seat area, you have to have offended a lot for that to be done. gonna take a lot of buffing to get that out.

The car is LHD. Don't hitchhike in Ukraine or Russia at present. The RH pax picks up something in the second before things go bad. wonder if that was the IED? explosion looked like it comes from either immediately below them there or maybe there. Don't litter campaign?

Russia has removed some 180K + of their own troops as #200+ #300's, in 6 months. What they have gained is a hostile public in the area that they suggest they are saving from... Nazi's? When the locals are prepared to cut the throat of a Russian soldier for raping a child, it may be a time to re-evaluate the winning hearts and minds strategy as it isn't working, and it will accelerate in extent, unless human nature suddenly changed. Cracking down is a great way of ramping up resistance to additional targets. Would seem that the continued destruction of the Russian military due to the ego of one man is a really poor choice for the stability of Russia.

Expect a ramp up of resistance within Ukraine, and more in Russia, particularly the areas that have been forced to carry the cost of the egotist in the Kremlin.

Started with... 190k and broke 186K in 6 months, that is an impressive effort. Is Putin being paid by Ukraine to de militarise Russia? He deserves a bonus round if he can destroy 300K Russian troops by Xmas.

[MAINJAFAD]

Originally Posted by fdr

Special Kherson Cat is one cool feline. The RSPCA will be up in arms like Amnesty... That was a lot of bang to take out a pigeon.
Explosion looks like it was inside in the front seat area, you have to have offended a lot for that to be done. gonna take a lot of buffing to get that out.

More like RSPB territory but most definitely the mother of all bird strikes. I will not be surprised if the pro Russian troll's say, "Look we were right. the Ukrainians and NATO are making Bird Bio Weapons".

[ORAC]

Sanctions start to bite - or rather to stop Russians being able to buy a bite…

(And yes, it’s steel, and not tin but tins…..)

https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/s...xZaJJnxOIU2mPA

Commodity giant Russia is running out of tin.

Due to a shortage of sheet steel, the country will soon face a shortage of tinned food and baby food lids, which were previously imported.

If no alternative is found, businesses will be forced to shut down

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by fdr

Russia has removed some 180K + of their own troops as #200+ #300's, in 6 months.

Where'd you get that number? Or are we making assumptions based on Russkies worst case scenario?
.
that would be 1000 troops KIA/MIA/WIA every day from day one.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Where'd you get that number? Or are we making assumptions based on Russkies worst case scenario?
.
that would be 1000 troops KIA/MIA/WIA every day from day one.

The 186K was a recent breakdown ex the UK MOD IIRC, that included 200, 300 and POW's there were 1000 POW still on the books apparently. It was worth a double take, as the figure on the injuries is much higher than my expectation on the historical rates, amended for the lethality and relative lack of dust-off capability in the field.

The Ukrainian sourced numbers may have inflation for public confidence, but the figures through to the first 90 days or so correlated fairly well with the fatalities that would have been expected from the armor and vehicle losses. What then came to light was that the IFV's were decidely undermanned with troops, and that would have given a lower loss of fatalities and injuries per vehicle. The reports from inside Russia indicate wholesale unit losses that are devastating. If the number of current fatalities is correct as recorded by the Ukrainians, then the 180K ineffective is going to be a realistic number. If they are out by 50%, then the latest figures from the US DOD that has been upgraded to 80K ineffective's is closer to the value. The current losses are extraordinary at any end of that spectrum. A lot of Ladas.

The Zombiez are rapidly approaching 50K body bags/envelopes/DNA samples, so the historical KIA/WIA would be close to that amount. The number of destroyed IFVs/MBTs and other vehicles etc with fairly high lethality weapons would suggest a lower ratio, others have suggested higher. Any way you count the figures, it is not a happy situation, and those are presumably a lot of pro-Putin votes going up in smoke with the turrets. Lada's will only gain so much leverage, until the first time it breaks down. the other figures given for materiel losses were remarkable when compared to the forces arranged on the line at Z-hour; they have depleted their initial equipment more or less, and are running on the reserves, that were depleted to a large extent by the commitment to the Special Demolition Derby.