Is Ukraine about to have a war?
It seems that the future is becoming clearer. Russia can only advance by concentrating their forces on increasingly smaller fronts, now effectively only a few tens of miles wide. Ukraine can't overcome the significant numerical advantage of the Russian. So far Ukrainian attempts to delimit the battle field have been very successful but they are at the point of diminishing returns. This is a recipe for WW1 style stalemate on the Donbas border.
Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians
Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians
It is depressing the degree to which France, Italy and Germany are all in favour of appeasing Putin, with the latter particaulrly shy in coming forward with arms. Even Greece has subverted potential EU sanctions on transport so that it can continue transporting Russian oil with its tanker fleet. An unwillingness accross the EU to share short-term economic pain for long-term human and economic gain .
It is depressing the degree to which France, Italy and Germany are all in favour of appeasing Putin, with the latter particaulrly shy in coming forward with arms. Even Greece has subverted potential EU sanctions on transport so that it can continue transporting Russian oil with its tanker fleet. An unwillingness accross the EU to share short-term economic pain for long-term human and economic gain .
Putting that to one side, EU (& others) sanctions are being undermined by China & India.
I am not sure your last line holds true, particularly as Zelenskyy (quite rightly) is not only looking to the EU for funding to prosecute the war but also substantial funding to rebuild afterwards, plus the costs of hosting all the refugees.
Putting that to one side, EU (& others) sanctions are being undermined by China & India.
Putting that to one side, EU (& others) sanctions are being undermined by China & India.
Knowing the big dependency of big European Corporates of the Chinese market I have a hard time seeing this coming though...
Europe is kind of between a Rock and a hard place there.
Yeah they might have more tankers heading there, but its a blip in overall scale. To ship to china the amount of crude/refined oil they send via pipelines to europe they would need 500ish Suezmax tankers, running back and forth. Only about 200 suezmax tankiers exist
The Bosphorus is slightly more restrictive on air draft it is 58m vs Suez 68m, but the lack of hulls makes that just another nuisance. Russia presumably has done the maths on the damage to their existing oil fields will be as production rates decline as they have, they could end up locking up their fields to the point that the scientists at least will be slightly happier. Good on Russia taking a hit for the planet.
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I think we all saw the link a week or so ago of the proceedings of the UK Defence committee , and how in the main they were grounded in reality.
Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.
Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.
I think you miss his point. They are importing more than before, but it is at a considerable discount. I've read India has been buying Russian oil at some 30% below to the going rate. I'm sure the Chinese have negotiated similar deals, knowing full well Russia cannot easily sell it elsewhere.
I think you miss his point. They are importing more than before, but it is at a considerable discount. I've read India has been buying Russian oil at some 30% below to the going rate. I'm sure the Chinese have negotiated similar deals, knowing full well Russia cannot easily sell it elsewhere.
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More mobile heavy artillery for Ukraine.
UK Supplied Wolfhounds in Ukraine, first film?
I wonder if this is part of the UK's loitering munitions we are sending?
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1530993097978654724?cxt=HHwWiMC96Y2Hl78qAAAA
..
UK Supplied Wolfhounds in Ukraine, first film?
I wonder if this is part of the UK's loitering munitions we are sending?
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1530993097978654724?cxt=HHwWiMC96Y2Hl78qAAAA
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 30th May 2022 at 11:58.
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It seems that the future is becoming clearer. Russia can only advance by concentrating their forces on increasingly smaller fronts, now effectively only a few tens of miles wide. Ukraine can't overcome the significant numerical advantage of the Russian. So far Ukrainian attempts to delimit the battle field have been very successful but they are at the point of diminishing returns.This is a recipe for WW1 style stalemate on the Donbas border.
The result would be an even more "Russia close to the NATO borders", but alas, that was only an official excuse to land-grab Ukraine (now, for as much as possible).
Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians
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I agree, plus you are NEVER going to get Ukraine to buy into one little part of that Idea, Russia can call a ceasefire or end to its War, but it takes two to tango, and I can never see one side taking part.
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,
A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,
A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine
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I think we all saw the link a week or so ago of the proceedings of the UK Defence committee , and how in the main they were grounded in reality.
Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...12721713504257
Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...12721713504257
Looks to me, there is only one option to avoid Russia gets these ideas implemented, and that is just break up the Russian Federation into a lot of smaller states. IE, the end of Russia as a Federal state, as it is now. These Nazi ideas are just too much ingrained throughout the society, without this breakup, there will be no peace. Not now and not in the foreseeable future. So, let us hope, Ukraine is not only Putin's Waterloo, though also the demise of, and the final nail into the coffin of the failed state, the Russian Federation.
Oh, and, I don't think, we should underestimate the effect these presumed alcoholics will have inside Russia .......
Sri Lanka also seems to have no other choice.
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I agree, plus you are NEVER going to get Ukraine to buy into one little part of that Idea, Russia can call a ceasefire or end to its War, but it takes two to tango, and I can never see one side taking part.
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,
A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine
https://twitter.com/UkraineNow8/stat...90678000934912
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,
A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine
https://twitter.com/UkraineNow8/stat...90678000934912
Wide Screen: I am not sure how you propose to break up the Russian Federation, but the chances that it happens voluntarily is somewhere between Slim and None, with Slim on a holiday. To do it forcefully requires coercion, which means (I suspect) boots on the ground.
Nobody in any capital that I can think of has the will to do that: expend blood and treasure on the kind of forceful break up that you envisage. They'd rather, in general, apply indirect methods of suasion.
Your fantasy is not a practical path forward, so why do you propose it?
Beyond that, any number of governments and companies are ignoring the sanctions that are among the indirect methods already in use. As pointed out above, yeah, the Russians are selling at a loss, but with the price per barrel having gone up a bit since last year at this time, they are still generating revenue. (And it appears that a loophole for air travel/air cargo is being exploited through Turkey, there's a thread on that in R&N I think).
The more interesting, and perhaps dire, issue arises in the coming months as the grain trade, whose flow has been disrupted, begins to have its predicted impact. Getting that unstuck is probably in the national interest of a great many nations. That is the most, as a practical matter, logical common ground for the disparate interests of over a hundred nations to attempt a form of collective action/pressure.
Nobody in any capital that I can think of has the will to do that: expend blood and treasure on the kind of forceful break up that you envisage. They'd rather, in general, apply indirect methods of suasion.
Your fantasy is not a practical path forward, so why do you propose it?
Beyond that, any number of governments and companies are ignoring the sanctions that are among the indirect methods already in use. As pointed out above, yeah, the Russians are selling at a loss, but with the price per barrel having gone up a bit since last year at this time, they are still generating revenue. (And it appears that a loophole for air travel/air cargo is being exploited through Turkey, there's a thread on that in R&N I think).
The more interesting, and perhaps dire, issue arises in the coming months as the grain trade, whose flow has been disrupted, begins to have its predicted impact. Getting that unstuck is probably in the national interest of a great many nations. That is the most, as a practical matter, logical common ground for the disparate interests of over a hundred nations to attempt a form of collective action/pressure.
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And that is one reason why Russia must never succeed, with Ukraines oil and gas fields, along with their wheat producing areas Russia could hold a large part of the world to ransom. And between them they produce 80% of the worlds sunflower oil
Those are Putin goals.
Those are Putin goals.