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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 9th Jul 2022, 03:34
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Thanks for the clarification of the UN data, so only 4000 clear cut civilians, the other 10,000 split 60/40 between rebels and Ukraine army people. Still sounds like a civil war to me.
The
picture will tell a better story when the timeline is introduced. It was a stale-mate with paramilitary harm far less than drunk driving for how many years already, six?
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 03:46
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Originally Posted by rattman
Interesting vid (turn on captions)
https://youtu.be/GJ0zsvsV4ZA
Yuriy Butusov, that guy is an absolute legend!!
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 07:26
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Originally Posted by etudiant
No argument of a substantial Russian involvement, Crimea makes that obvious, but still see this as a senseless civil war within Ukraine,.
If I remember correctly, you say you are a lawyer. Would it be fair to ask you whether you are being paid by any Russian-supporting organisation for your long-term "boosterism" of the Russian position ?
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 10:21
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
If I remember correctly, you say you are a lawyer. Would it be fair to ask you whether you are being paid by any Russian-supporting organisation for your long-term "boosterism" of the Russian position ?
Not a legal beagle, no funding, just trying to keep perspectives a bit balanced. .
The people of Ukraine are paying the price for inept government and stupid western 'diplomacy', precisely as Mearsheimer warned. This is a disaster, likely still worsening. It needs to halt
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 13:18
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Those young Russian soldiers are also paying the price for their dictator Putin's empirialistic ambition.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 13:18
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Not a legal beagle, no funding, just trying to keep perspectives a bit balanced. .
The people of Ukraine are paying the price for inept government and stupid western 'diplomacy', precisely as Mearsheimer warned. This is a disaster, likely still worsening. It needs to halt
You are absolutely shameless. Yes it needs to halt, by the defeat or withdrawal of Russia. This isn't a civil war, it's the invasion of a sovereign nation by a barbaric neighbour. "Inept government" and "stupid western diplomacy" even if it were true, don't justify what Russia is doing.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 13:34
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My goodness etudiant, which planet do you come from? I'm all in favour of a balanced perspective. Yours is nothing of the sort!
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 13:45
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Not a legal beagle, no funding, just trying to keep perspectives a bit balanced. .
The people of Ukraine are paying the price for inept government and stupid western 'diplomacy', precisely as Mearsheimer warned. This is a disaster, likely still worsening. It needs to halt
I imagine that Mr Mearstimer would have got on well with Lord Halifax, the Duke of Windsor, and certain other members of the then Royal Family. The people of Ukraine are paying the price of being invaded by a powerful neighbour led by a bully. The bully and his army need to be expelled entirely from the Ukraine and to pay the price for the stupid decision that got them there in the first place. No doubt Mr Mearsteimer develops his Real Politik from the certain assurance that his own country would never be subject to a fate similar to that of the Ukraine. In that belief he could be greatly mistaken...
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 14:25
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Originally Posted by etudiant
The people of Ukraine are paying the price for inept government and stupid western 'diplomacy', precisely as Mearsheimer warned. It needs to halt
Hmmm, what exactly was the ineptness of the Ukrainian Government that would have caused this tragedy?
Not having surrendered immediately?
Or do I overlook something they could have done to prevent Vlad the Mad violently trying to restore the Soviet empire with communism replaced by cleptocracy.
It needs to halt
I guess pretty much everyone would agree. But not on your terms.
It yould be very easy to halt it for Russia. Just go back to the pre- February 24th borders and chances are a peace would surely be negotiable.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 16:15
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He's a troll, ignore him
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 16:16
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There used to be a function to enable one to mute unhinged/etc posters, but I can't seem to locate it
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 16:31
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I might be wrong, but I believe etudiant, is claiming the 1994 agreement, where Ukraine's government gave up Ukraine's nuclear weapons, to be the reason for Russia's invasion.
Had Ukraine kept its arsenal, Russia might not have invaded.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 16:52
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I do promise you all [except one]. Take no notice and the gibbering will stop.
Nothing relevant to see here, move on please.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 17:01
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I’m always content to hear an opposite view, however flawed. That’s how Democracy works, isn’t it, where free speech is allowed … unlike some Nations.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 17:18
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Originally Posted by henra
Hmmm, what exactly was the ineptness of the Ukrainian Government that would have caused this tragedy?
Not having surrendered immediately?
Or do I overlook something they could have done to prevent Vlad the Mad violently trying to restore the Soviet empire with communism replaced by cleptocracy.

I guess pretty much everyone would agree. But not on your terms.
It yould be very easy to halt it for Russia. Just go back to the pre- February 24th borders and chances are a peace would surely be negotiable.
That is easy, the ineptness was shown by the post Maidan decision to eliminate the various linguistic minority rights in Ukraine and to believe the blandishments of future NATO membership.
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
When on top of that you share a large and fairly casual border with Russia which you've been part of for a couple of centuries, it is dumb to pursue membership in an anti Russian alliance.
That is particularly so when Russia has gone out of its way to call that a red line issue. That is the point Mearsheimer emphasized.
To put it in context, recognize the US did not react well when little Cuba housed Soviet troops and missiles in the 1960s, even though Cuba had not even joined the Warsaw Pact.
The Minsk Accords were imho the best possible deal that everyone could live with. They are dead and gone, that opportunity is lost.
Now we have this mess, which looks more like 1914 redux every day, always escalation, never any easing, with nuclear not too far away.

Separately, kleptocracy is not limited to Russia, Ukraine is quite competitive on that front as well by all reports.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 18:19
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Something about Stalin's useful idiots comes to mind.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 18:31
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Originally Posted by etudiant
That is easy, the ineptness was shown by the post Maidan decision to eliminate the various linguistic minority rights in Ukraine and to believe the blandishments of future NATO membership.
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
When on top of that you share a large and fairly casual border with Russia which you've been part of for a couple of centuries, it is dumb to pursue membership in an anti Russian alliance.
That is particularly so when Russia has gone out of its way to call that a red line issue. That is the point Mearsheimer emphasized.
To put it in context, recognize the US did not react well when little Cuba housed Soviet troops and missiles in the 1960s, even though Cuba had not even joined the Warsaw Pact.
The Minsk Accords were imho the best possible deal that everyone could live with. They are dead and gone, that opportunity is lost.
Now we have this mess, which looks more like 1914 redux every day, always escalation, never any easing, with nuclear not too far away.

Separately, kleptocracy is not limited to Russia, Ukraine is quite competitive on that front as well by all reports.
Your “to put in context” is ill thought through on 2 counts. Firstly, the US did not invade Cuba when Soviet troops and missiles were stationed there. Second, there were no foreign, nuclear armed forces in Ukraine threatening Russia.

On a point of order, NATO is not specifically anti Russian. It was founded to face a Soviet threat, granted, but it is a defensive alliance, and therefore does not threaten, I.e. wish to conquer, any other power.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 18:50
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
On a point of order, NATO is not specifically anti Russian. It was founded to face a Soviet threat, granted, but it is a defensive alliance, and therefore does not threaten, I.e. wish to conquer, any other power.
An opposing opinion cultivates the debate. Though as a passport holder of a previously USSR-subdued satellite I have no comments on etudiant's posts and logic whatsoever, a note on NATO is due (being a happy member of).

Outside of NATO's own social bubble:
a) NATO is just an acronym for USA+their (puppy) friends.
b) US political and economic global dominance is a source and target of a lot of aggravation (justified or not)
c) a+b = unless you are on the team, pretty much everybody feels uneasy or worse about USA / NATO
d) The list of NATO / US (which are synonymous to many) uses of violent military force outside our borders is not really short
e) "d" above invalidates what defensive stands for

The inverse of knowing your enemy is not to bullwash ourselves.
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Old 9th Jul 2022, 19:02
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Not sure if this has been posted..
Italian TV host calls it for what it is...

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Old 9th Jul 2022, 19:43
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Germany has found an ammunition producer ( in Norway ) that can make the 35 mm shells used in the Gepard Flakpanzer and these are going to be tested this week. This means that the 30 Panzer can be delivered to the Ukraine, possibly starting next week - assuming successful ammo trials.. Ukrainian troops are already in training in Germany.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html
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