Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[DIBO]

Originally Posted by Sue Vętements

I only see Japan, England, USA, Germany, France, Italy, but then only three more. Looks like the last two would be Turkey and Spain

Well, there are only three more... Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Spain.

It's all in the details....

[rattman]

Originally Posted by peter we

They are all dead now. Used as cannon fodder to lock down the Ukranians.

They put russian officers into the unit to try and keep them inline. The lastest general killed was their commander. On that if you a into war porn some telegram channels have a full video of his body, ID and the destroyed tygr he was travelling + the rest of the convoy including other assorted officers and the large satcom dish that made the convoy a big "shoot me" target

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Rich Soldier, I wonder if he bought them from Tanks a lot. Some of the donated Ambulances were based on the same model so hopefully they have those in place to maintain them.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...C9iYaNockqAAAA
They are getting them from Tanks a Lot fascinating film of the stuff going out, landrovers and Ferrets!
https://www.facebook.com/Tanksalotlt...-IOS_GK0T-GK1C

One Two Three Four of these things is are not like the other....

1. Ukrainian soldier purchases vehicles with his own money and donates them to his forces;
2. DPR/LPR "volunteers" given 1891 vintage hoisin-nagant bolt action rifles to go fight for their saviour, the Russians....;
3. Russian tank driver drives over his colonel deliberately, amputating both of his legs, colonel dies some weeks later...;
4. Russian General goes "missing" after command of the criminal invasion for about 50 days. Replaced by a new guy who remains un-deceased since being handed the chalice (poisoned/irradiated/war crime ridden/choose your adjective) on 3rd June, or 26th May, or maybe 10 June, (in the near future...);
5. Russian recruitment offices all over the RF have serious wiring problems, seem to go up in smoke regularly;
6. RF has to pay incentive to get troops to attack;
7. Ukrainian tech company designs and produces and fields anti drone system;
8. President Zelenski visits Severodonetsk troops in a contested city;
9. President Putin sends more staff to Lubyanka, from his seat within the Kremlin;
10. Ukrainian farmers take abandoned Russian tanks under tow and provide them to the Ukrainian army for refurbishment;
11. Russian soldiers murder Ukrainian unarmed security guards at commercial complex, and then loot the place;
12. Russian solders steal grain and tractors;
13. Russian soldiers steal washing machines, removing dead Russian bodies from vehicles to put their loot on;
14. Russian wife suggests her soldier husband should rape Ukrainian women;
15. Russian soldiers steal PS4 and then complain that the owner won't give the code for the use of it.

If Ukraine is not able to push Putin back into his own flea and corruption ridden yard, it will be due in no small measure from the hesitancy shown by us, the supposed supporters of democracy and free government... Putin has no shame in objecting to weapons of extended reach to defend Ukraine while he attacked with ballistic and cruise missiles a country that he criminally invades while failing to have the intestinal fortitude to call his criminal actions a war.

Not often that the choices are so stark.


On slowest things,

between grass growing and German aid, you can add the Korean description of a long time:

Grass Growing

"imagine the smallest angel flying down and touching imperceptibly the tallest mountain top with their wing and eroding the hardest rock of the mountain. When the mountain is worn to sea level, that Is a long time".

German military aid

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Just to clarify, which states are considered to be Europe's finest please?

Those EU countries that adhere to the original EU intentions, IE further than only holding up the hand for money ?

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by tdracer

I'd like to see our POTUS stop bowing to the environmental lobby and open up all those oil and gas leases that he cancelled since the inauguration.
Not much chance of that though - making all his 'not my fault' claims total BS. The US was a net oil exporter before Sleepy Joe - not so much now.

Maybe, though the US has become a huge importer of natural catastrophes, like the California wildfires, the droughts all over Western and mid the USA, the excessive amount and force of hurricanes, the southern swamp floodings and probably some more. Give it a few more years, and the current disaster experiences do look mild. Try to pay your way out of this.

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by Beamr

There are claims that the recently appointed commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Butcher of Syria, has been missing for a few weeks now. Another open window, who knows, but if true it shows that Putin must be very demanding and anxious to have his victory. If a general can't deliver he will be pushed through a wi... aside.
Management by fear isn't very rewarding. But explains the stubborness of Russians in eg river crossings.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...o-weeks-report

My understanding is, he got seriously wounded, not that long ago, being in a conference under Ukraine fire, together with a couple of tins of other high-ranking officers, who largely left the place in body bags. Only Rambo and Putin himself will recover instantly from serious (battlefield) wounds, "normal" human beings can easily need a couple of months to recover.

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by fdr

.....
"imagine the smallest angel flying down and touching imperceptibly the tallest mountain top with their wing and eroding the hardest rock of the mountain. When the mountain is worn to sea level, that Is a long time".

German military aid

Yep, it's a shame. How can we help them to speed up, a bit ?

I do see three major issues:
- The whole government crew just came fresh into power, full of ideological rhetoric, which they need to drop and get "back to earth". This takes time, a lot. The nuclear energy ban among their green followers seems to have dissolved much faster.
- The country did set up a law-system after WW2, largely forbidding everything related to army/war, making it cumbersome to act.
- Potential a large spread out of Putin/FSB ties all over the place, making everybody hesitating to convince themselves and their surroundings to do more than some words.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by rattman

They put russian officers into the unit to try and keep them inline. The lastest general killed was their commander. On that if you a into war porn some telegram channels have a full video of his body, ID and the destroyed tygr he was travelling + the rest of the convoy including other assorted officers and the large satcom dish that made the convoy a big "shoot me" target

I was referring to the mobilised soldiers from occupied Ukraine. About 12000 men aged up to 60. They were total destroyed because the Russians didn't provide them with equipment and sent them to attack heavily fortified positions.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by WideScreen

My understanding is, he got seriously wounded, not that long ago, being in a conference under Ukraine fire, together with a couple of tins of other high-ranking officers, who largely left the place in body bags. Only Rambo and Putin himself will recover instantly from serious (battlefield) wounds, "normal" human beings can easily need a couple of months to recover.

Are you sure? General Valeri Gerasimov was wounded in late April under the circumstances you are describing, but he was later replaced by General Alekandr Dvornikov (the Butcher of Syria), which has now gone AWOL.

Apparently Gerasimov was wounded in the leg and flown out of Ukraine though has healed, but no one has heard of Dvornikov for good two weeks now.

[ORAC]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/wo...on-in-ukraine/

WOULD WE DO BETTER? HUBRIS AND VALIDATION IN UKRAINE

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Are you sure? General Valeri Gerasimov was wounded in late April under the circumstances you are describing, but he was later replaced by General Alekandr Dvornikov (the Butcher of Syria), which has now gone AWOL.

Apparently Gerasimov was wounded in the leg and flown out of Ukraine though has healed, but no one has heard of Dvornikov for good two weeks now.

Indeed, thanks for correcting me.

Just wondering what echelon is replacing all those who got "thanked for their services" ? It must be pretty crowded at the top, if continuously suitable replacements can be found (for the death as well as the "thanked" ones).

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Are you sure? General Valeri Gerasimov was wounded in late April under the circumstances you are describing, but he was later replaced by General Alekandr Dvornikov (the Butcher of Syria), which has now gone AWOL.

Apparently Gerasimov was wounded in the leg and flown out of Ukraine though has healed, but no one has heard of Dvornikov for good two weeks now.

I thought I saw a picture circulating of Gerasimov with that tool Kadyrov late last week - alas no luck finding it.

Also it was reported over the weekend that Putin had done another round of sackings, Dvornikov being relieved of his command. Of course this could be retrospective....

[beardy]

Originally Posted by ORAC

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/wo...on-in-ukraine/

WOULD WE DO BETTER? HUBRIS AND VALIDATION IN UKRAINE

Thank you for this illuminating article. It shows an enlightened analysis, but I think doesn't give enough emphasis to the commitment and motivation of the troops on the ground. They represent a crucial component of the success or failure of any tactic or strategy.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by WideScreen

Yep, it's a shame. How can we help them to speed up, a bit ?

I do see three major issues:
- The whole government crew just came fresh into power, full of ideological rhetoric, which they need to drop and get "back to earth". This takes time, a lot. The nuclear energy ban among their green followers seems to have dissolved much faster.
- The country did set up a law-system after WW2, largely forbidding everything related to army/war, making it cumbersome to act.
- Potential a large spread out of Putin/FSB ties all over the place, making everybody hesitating to convince themselves and their surroundings to do more than some words.

I am amazed that they have done as much as they have so far, but time is of the essence. A day late and a dollar short will put an emboldened Putin on their doorstep (well, Poland's, Hungary, Moldova... and no matter how frustrating Hungary's ultra-right position has been they may regret that with a friend like Putin sitting in the lead of tanks parked in front of the Országház. Was never a big fan of the domino principle, it seemed far-fetched back in OTS, but, Putin has a stated intent, and that impacts Western Europe as it is presently drawn.

Putin bristles over the UF being given any extended range systems, while he invaded a sovereign nation with over 180,000 troops, 2,500 ballistic and cruise missiles, and as yet not a single window pane has been broken in his Krimmin. And the West worries about not "offending" him? Putin is an offensive, criminal, heading up a criminal gang that has pillaged Russia for 22 years in the continuous abuse of the Russian citizens, a long-established tradition of abuse going back to pre-Tzarist Russia. He has amassed a fortune by plundering the future of his nation, and now throws the nation's youth into a meat grinder of his egotistic discretionary war, that risks global famine that will be forever linked to his name and the shame that is Russia's for acquiescing to this evil git. the risks exist from him and him alone, and the choice is whether the west supports courageous efforts to suppress Putins outrageous behavior, or defers it to Polish, German and Baltic lands in the near future.

Now it is inconceivable that Russia has the conventional forces to push westwards anytime soon, and I suspect that as the new North Korea, that will take a while to change, but being subservient to the conventional threat merely emboldens his nuclear threats following on later.

So, Germany, France, decide where you want the war fought, within Ukraine or on your land, those are the stark choices should appeasement occur, which is a short step from worrying about "offending" a murderous sociopath bent on hegemony.

"In my humble opinion...", E&OE

[fdr]

Originally Posted by beardy

Thank you for this illuminating article. It shows an enlightened analysis, but I think doesn't give enough emphasis to the commitment and motivation of the troops on the ground. They represent a crucial component of the success or failure of any tactic or strategy.

I'm with you Beardy, Johnston raises many interesting points and certainly highlights the potential for groupthink to occur if a rational analysis is not undertaken once the dust has cleared enough for facts to be discernible from propaganda. However, in this instance, the process of driving heavy armor in late winter with a force of conscripts that were not ideologically sold on the master plan is evidenced in mutinies, tank scrap heaps, and endless youtube & TikTok images. The meeting of technological change and tactics seems to have been a surprise to all concerned. The greatest force multiplier at this time apart from the moral and logistical benefits of being in fortified defensive positions appears to be the relatively pinpoint accuracy and timely delivery of a response from the employment of drones. Russia still has bullets and shells remaining, willing participants seem to be getting harder to find, whereas Ukraine has a ready supply of people incensed at the actions of Putin.

The risks for Ukraine are still real, and their troops are dying daily in the action to evict Putin and his minions from their land. Their overall position in the NE is serious, but then RF have to be thinking about the fact they may well have a large force about to be cut off on the west side of the Dnieper, they have two readily interdicted supply lines across the Dnieper that can be stopped readily by the Ukrainians from their current position, and that leaves the RF west of the Dneiper completely at risk.

This is a vicious war being fought, and not much turns out as planned; the last reported Russian Su-25 downing did end up being a Su-27 of the UF brought down by a blue-on-blue event. A small tragedy in the middle of an immense tragedy.

while all eyes are on the East and the bits west of Kerson, there is the following RFS floating about...The Ivan Gren class, Russian designation Project 11711

• Pyotr Morgunov 1x BTG. NF

Ropucha Project 775

• BDK-91 Olenegorski Gornjak. NF
• BDK Georgy Pobedonosets NF

Project 775M Ropucha

• BDK-130 Korolev BF
• BDK-127 Minsk BF
• BDK-102 Kaliningrad BF
• BDK-64 Caesar Kunikov BSF
• BDK-46 Novocherkassk BSF
• BDK-54 (Azov) BSF
• BDK-67 (Yamal) BSF

Project 1171 (Tapir-class) ‘Alligator”

• BDK-69 Orsk BSF
• Nikolay Filchenkov BSF

That's about ~130 tanks, 4,000 troops worth, which makes for a lot of neptune/harpoon/brimstone opportunities. a fair amount of activity around Snake Island.
About time US-flagged grain ships went in and picked up cargo in Odessa....

[Beamr]

Dmitri Medvedev just posted on his Telegram account his thoughts of Ukrainians. He is actually announcing the genocide of Ukrainian people as his goal.
And this from the former president of Russia, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
A mein kampf moment.

Originally Posted by Dmitri Medvedev

"I am often asked why my Telegram posts are so harsh.
The answer is I hate them. They are bastards and geeks. They want death for us, Russia. And while I'm alive, I will do everything to make them disappear."
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/105

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Dmitri Medvedev just posted on his Telegram account his thoughts of Ukrainians. He is actually announcing the genocide of Ukrainian people as his goal.
And this from the former president of Russia, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
A mein kampf moment.

That won't make his memoirs a best seller outside of Moscow.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Just to clarify, which states are considered to be Europe's finest please?

I was guessing that he was referring to Luxembourg.

Originally Posted by fdr

So, Germany, France, decide where you want the war fought, within Ukraine or on your land, those are the stark choices should appeasement occur, which is a short step from worrying about "offending" a murderous sociopath bent on hegemony.

Based on Putin's rhetoric, objectives to the east of Ukraine aren't his aim, although Moldava / Transdniestra probably are. And the Baltic States? Probably, if one is to guess at the content of his dreams.

For beardy: well said, and that squares with the old adage about "the moral is to the physical as three is to one". Johnson's piece and what's going on in Ukraine reminds me of the Middle East a little bit. As a general thought based on many sources over the years: a lot of the troops there are much better in the defensive than in the offensive. (I am leaving the Israelis out of this).

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by ORAC

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/wo...on-in-ukraine/
WOULD WE DO BETTER? HUBRIS AND VALIDATION IN UKRAINE

Great link, ORAC, thanks! The combined arms bit (and how darned hard it is to do well as one scales up to Division and Corp level operations, which is what the Russians are doing), and the need for air superiority/supremacy for things like River Crossings and Amphibious ops, and the incredible difficulty of deception/masking of units, were well presented. (As an aside: do the Russians have anything like the NTC at Fort Irwin? It's a one of a kind training asset). The rotations there do not always assume air superiority/dominance for the Blue Forces.
Also a thought worth pondering: if the Iraqis had had drones and eyes-in-the sky in 2003, how much higher would the butcher's bill have been? One cannot know the answer to that, but it's a question one must address if one is a leader in the Western armies whose "casualty aversion' (which really came to prominence during the 90's in the US) is an embedded assumption.
A few other points worth bringing up from that link:

At the beginning of the war, Russia’s active-duty personnel and major weapons systems allocated to the invasion significantly outnumbered that of Ukraine almost two-to-one. Accurate casualty and materiel loss data is difficult to obtain, particularly from Ukraine, where the data is understandably considered a national secret. Nevertheless, if the numbers being reported by each combatant are in the ballpark, then these running estimates show both sides are suffering significant levels of attrition, most importantly in personnel. If this is true, then Ukraine is potentially in serious trouble if the war continues much longer.

I remember reading some of Jeffrey Record's stuff, this rings a bell a couple of years later.

His thesis is that U.S. policymakers and senior military officers believe that the “use of force in situations of optional intervention should be prepared to sacrifice even operational effectiveness for the sake of casualty avoidance” and that in the war against Serbia, “force protection was accorded priority over mission accomplishment.” To support this conclusion, Record cites then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Hugh Shelton to support this conclusion: “The paramount lesson learned from Operation Allied Force is that the well-being of our people must remain our first priority.”

Importantly: non peer adversary.

As it did for Russia, it could happen to us, and we need to fully understand what “it” is.

I will suggest that the Chinese are also paying very close attention.

[Kent Based]

Originally Posted by fdr

1. DPR/LPR "volunteers" given 1891 vintage hoisin-nagant bolt action rifles to go fight for their saviour, the Russians....;

Are these Chinese copies of the mosin-nagant? Artificially aged by soaking in soy sauce and favoured by duck hunters.