Originally Posted by
Ninthace
I appreciate the difference and the fact that they have taken twice the casualties already confirms that. However, {0} surely the number of casualties cannot be kept from the public indefinitely, especially as they rise,{1} and there must come a point where the question will be asked, "Is the product worth the price" {2} and there will be pressure to stop fighting. {3} It is not a war for existence from the Russian perspective no matter how hard they sell it.
Well, maybe. On point 0, I think that as time goes on that it will be harder to hide. On point 1 there are doubtless a body of folks who are already asking that question, but whether or not their concerns get acted on remains an open question. On point 2, that would go hand in hand with points 0 and 1, and those reports of fires/vandalism(??) may indicate some internal push back already.
As to point 3, while we see it differently from the outside (I have posted elsewhere an opinion that this war wasn't necessary) I am not sure how it is seen from within and by how many.
I suspect that point 3 is directly linked to points 0 through 2, so as those go so may the message (being pushed up hill) perhaps get stronger. But the choke point becomes this: do the ruling class listen to voices from way down the hill? It's hard enough to get heard in more open societies sometimes, isn't it?
We had years of protests against the Viet Nam war in my country, and how many years did it take before we finally left?
One thing is fairly certain though, Russia will now have great difficulty achieving the "de-nazification" of Ukraine as stated at the outset.
Yeah, own goal there on Putin's part.
Your other points certainly raise some hard questions: what will the people who have the power to make a settlement after a cease fire settle for? For example, if during the next month Ukraine is able to mount a counter offensive and take back some (more) of their lost territory, does that not put them in a stronger negotiating position once a cease fire is agreed to? But from the other side, what if the Russians complete that land bridge to Crimea? Does that strengthen their hand, or does that just mean that Ukraine never comes to a table for talks?